" Fooled by Randomness"

Discussion in 'Economy' started by editec, Sep 11, 2011.

  1. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    " Fooled by Randomness"
    The Hidden Role of chance in Life and in the Markets
    by Nissim Nicolas Taleb​

    Has anyone here read this book?​

    I cannot recommend too strongly that you ought to put it on your list of things worthy of a few hours in your lives.​

    It pierces though the absolute nonsense that many of us clearly think passes for common sense OR FOR THAT MATTER even statistical logic. ​

    Particularly those of us who imagine that we are truly capable of making RATIONAL decisions might find this book both humbling and especially useful if you happen to be playing the markets.
    Given that this nation (indeed the world's economies) might now be poised for a BLACK SWAN event, this modest tome on the question of how much any of us can know in advance or intuit from the past might give some of you pause.​

    I have very little doubt that much of my praise for this book has to do with my own philosophical resignation about how much FATE trumps WILL, but even those of you who deludee yourselves that you (or anyone else for that matter) are SELF MADE MEN will find this book a valuble exercise in challenging your assumptions about the world you live in and your ability to pierce the veil of uncertainty that surrounds us all.​

    Add to my praise and admiration for Mr. Taleb the fact that the book is written well enough that I found myself often laughing out loud at Talebs self deprecations because I saw so many of his foibles in myself, too.

     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2011
  2. California Girl
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    California Girl BANNED

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    You should try reading 'Nudge' by Cass Sunstein too.
     
  3. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Thanks, CG, I'll look into it.


    I wish more here would read books like the above mentioned.

    "Fooled by Randomness" might help some of us understand how things got so messed up macro-economically speaking.

    The kinds of errors that people make when trying to understand their world statistically stem from the way our brains are DESIGNED to work.

    We are not designed to understand complex systems or events or large numbers.

    So we jump to conclusions based on the way our brains work.

    Even people who are well versed in statistical analysis are likely to misread what the numbers are telling us,

    Consider the case of Newton losing his short thanks to the South Seas bubble to see that phenomena in effect.

    I mean if Newton can get fooled, small wonder the rest of us are clueless.

    NOBODY expects the BLACK SWAN ti happen, but when one craps all over our best laid plans?

    Everybody thinks they can see restrospectively why it happened.

    It would be funny if the outcomes weren't so damned catastropic.
     
  4. expat_panama
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    expat_panama Silver Member

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    Human rationality is the core salient quality of Homo sapiens and understanding its nature and myths is the stuff of an advancing civilization. A recurrent obstacle to this understanding is the lure of breaking from the hard work of connecting to reality to sink into self aggrandizement.

    Compare--
    --to this:
    Those of us who imagine that we are truly capable of working for a living might find markets both humbling and especially useful if you happen to be playing with books.​
    It's just as pompous, arrogant, and stupid as the above quote.
     

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