Neubarth
At the Ballpark July 30th
- Thread starter
- #61
Hey Neubarth, who is being sarcastic? My portfolio has recovered about 75% of the loss from the crash last year. Let's hope it keeps going.
Be aware that the economy is still tanking. Look at Retail Sales, Durable Good Orders, Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment, and Mass Layoffs or Furloughs to see what is really happening with the economy.
Stocks right now are over valued by a factor of four or five, and are due for a massive correction.
Jobs haven't added yet. You can't expect retail to pick up until that point. Since people aren't buying, durable good orders aren't picking up either.
And stocks aren't overvalued when you factor earnings. Companies are still profiting because they trimmed the fat. P/E ratios are averaging like 14 or 15 on the S&P right now. Historic P/E's are 15.
Nothing is off the wall here. If there are earnings, then it makes sense to be a shareholder. Revenues are down because spending is down, becuase jobs are down. But earnings are keeping pace or rising. This is bullish for equities.
I'm not understanding why you think we're so overvalued?
We have earnings, and we have the highest monetary base in history right now. Current stock prices make complete sense.
The only thing I don't get is that there really hasn't been ANY kind of healthy correction yet, which is strange. In July we pulled back a bit and everyone thought it was a rollover, even Toro. He went massively short if I remember correctly. But it was short lived. Perhaps that was our correction.
I don't see anything wrong with the price range we have now, but I certainly don't see any reason for it to go much HIGHER than this until we start adding jobs again.
Average earnings on Wall Street have fallen by approximately 78 percent. Now, I know you are using "Future projected anticipated if times are roaring good earnings" but I don't. We can never reach agreement on this issue as long as you are using those imaginary projected earnings. We will just have to call it a wash until reality hits you up alongside the head.