Folks, WE ARE IN A SPIN LOOP AND ARE CRASHING ECONOMICALLY.

[Neubarth]

Hey Neubarth, who is being sarcastic? My portfolio has recovered about 75% of the loss from the crash last year. Let's hope it keeps going.

Be aware that the economy is still tanking. Look at Retail Sales, Durable Good Orders, Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment, and Mass Layoffs or Furloughs to see what is really happening with the economy.

Stocks right now are over valued by a factor of four or five, and are due for a massive correction.

Jobs haven't added yet. You can't expect retail to pick up until that point. Since people aren't buying, durable good orders aren't picking up either.

And stocks aren't overvalued when you factor earnings. Companies are still profiting because they trimmed the fat. P/E ratios are averaging like 14 or 15 on the S&P right now. Historic P/E's are 15.

Nothing is off the wall here. If there are earnings, then it makes sense to be a shareholder. Revenues are down because spending is down, becuase jobs are down. But earnings are keeping pace or rising. This is bullish for equities.

I'm not understanding why you think we're so overvalued?

We have earnings, and we have the highest monetary base in history right now. Current stock prices make complete sense.

The only thing I don't get is that there really hasn't been ANY kind of healthy correction yet, which is strange. In July we pulled back a bit and everyone thought it was a rollover, even Toro. He went massively short if I remember correctly. But it was short lived. Perhaps that was our correction.

I don't see anything wrong with the price range we have now, but I certainly don't see any reason for it to go much HIGHER than this until we start adding jobs again.

Average earnings on Wall Street have fallen by approximately 78 percent. Now, I know you are using "Future projected anticipated if times are roaring good earnings" but I don't. We can never reach agreement on this issue as long as you are using those imaginary projected earnings. We will just have to call it a wash until reality hits you up alongside the head.

 

[Paulie]

Be aware that the economy is still tanking. Look at Retail Sales, Durable Good Orders, Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment, and Mass Layoffs or Furloughs to see what is really happening with the economy.

Stocks right now are over valued by a factor of four or five, and are due for a massive correction.

Jobs haven't added yet. You can't expect retail to pick up until that point. Since people aren't buying, durable good orders aren't picking up either.

And stocks aren't overvalued when you factor earnings. Companies are still profiting because they trimmed the fat. P/E ratios are averaging like 14 or 15 on the S&P right now. Historic P/E's are 15.

Nothing is off the wall here. If there are earnings, then it makes sense to be a shareholder. Revenues are down because spending is down, becuase jobs are down. But earnings are keeping pace or rising. This is bullish for equities.

I'm not understanding why you think we're so overvalued?

We have earnings, and we have the highest monetary base in history right now. Current stock prices make complete sense.

The only thing I don't get is that there really hasn't been ANY kind of healthy correction yet, which is strange. In July we pulled back a bit and everyone thought it was a rollover, even Toro. He went massively short if I remember correctly. But it was short lived. Perhaps that was our correction.

I don't see anything wrong with the price range we have now, but I certainly don't see any reason for it to go much HIGHER than this until we start adding jobs again.

Average earnings on Wall Street have fallen by approximately 78 percent. Now, I know you are using "Future projected anticipated if times are roaring good earnings" but I don't. We can never reach agreement on this issue as long as you are using those imaginary projected earnings. We will just have to call it a wash until reality hits you up alongside the head.

I'm going by what's being reported in 10Q's. EARNINGS are meeting or beating in many companies. Some, not so much.

But it doesn't necessarily take spending and revenue to create earnings. A good company can profit THROUGH the spending downturns. Many have, if you've been paying attention.

I'm not a "long", per se. I'm long some companies, but I just opened a margin trading account, (the first since I started trading), to start taking some short posititons that I think have legs. I've never shorted yet, besides buying a short ETF (DXD) back in the winter when the DOW was around 8600.

I'm neither a long, nor a short. Some securities look bullish, some look bearish.

I'm a long term bear, macroeconomically speaking, btw. I don't buy this "recovery" bullshit one bit. It will create growth in that it will grow another bubble and make more people money, maybe cause an upstart in overall spending, only to burst and lead to another one of these downturns.

If that happens again, and we don't finally move away from Keynesianism, I'm moving out of the USA forever. And that's assuming that the next time around it's even still livable around here ANYWAY.

 

[The Rabbi]

Hide the money in the cellar, pa. Get out the apple stands. It's the big one.
Durable goods orders rise 1 percent in September - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON – Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in September as the biggest jump in demand for machinery in 18 months offset weakness in commercial aircraft and autos.

The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods increased 1 percent last month, matching economists' expectations. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.9 percent, slightly better than the 0.7 percent that economists had forecast.

More at the source.

 

[Neubarth]

Hide the money in the cellar, pa. Get out the apple stands. It's the big one.
Durable goods orders rise 1 percent in September - Yahoo! News

WASHINGTON – Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in September as the biggest jump in demand for machinery in 18 months offset weakness in commercial aircraft and autos.

The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods increased 1 percent last month, matching economists' expectations. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.9 percent, slightly better than the 0.7 percent that economists had forecast.

More at the source.

Mostly government orders. We are in a severe depression.
Things are getting worse not better.