miami_thomas
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- Jan 20, 2011
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- #81
Thanks. I think I will. Analyst's projections are what they are: educated guesses.
Thus I stick with what is. (all facts, no estimates) Growth, even slow growth, is not going under. And France's debt is far from unmanageable, given the size of its economy and depth of its national product.
It's not going away, nor will it become Greece 2.0. Not even close.
Quote regarding the economic power France published today.
We forecast that the French economy will be in recession around the turn of the year, seeing a 0.2% contraction in GDP during 2013. Domestic demand dynamics have been weakening for some time, amid rising unemployment, falling consumer confidence and a challenging picture for household disposable income.
[...]At the end of 2011, employee compensation amounted to 67.4% of gross value added in French industrial firms (up 6.7 ppt since 1999) compared to 59.9% in Germany (down 9.7ppt). A similar story emerges when comparing real unit labour costs. France has recorded an increase of 2.8ppt since 1Q 1999, while Germany has posted a decline of 2.3ppt (see Figure 3).
French employment levels have been largely stable in the last two-and-a-half years (up 0.7% since 4Q-09) despite a larger gain in GDP worth around 3% (see Figure 4). Among other things, this relationship suggests that the labour market lacks flexibility. While productivity remains elevated, growth in the working age population means that an increasing number of potential workers are struggling to find jobs. Some categories such as the under 25s have been affected disproportionately: youth unemployment has risen by nearly 25k since the end of 2009, with a jobless rate of 22.7% in 2Q 2012 vs. only 8.1% in Germany.
Debt crisis: as it happened, November 16, 2012 - Telegraph
Let me know when forecasts prove accurate, or don't. We can pick it up from there.
Thanks in advance,
-K
Only the first line was forecast the rest was facts that led to that forecast. So if someone tells you the house is on fire you are going to say let me know when it burns down.