Toro, I am glad that you are an optimist. I want to be, but reality keeps on dragging me back to what I see happening.
There were four massive stock bubbles in the 20th Century: 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000. During each of these bubble peaks, the S&P 500 neared or exceeded 25X on the great economics professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio.* After the first three of these peaks, the S&P 500 PE did not bottom until it hit 5X-8X. We're still in the middle of the last one.
That means, The DOW could go well below 4000. If that happens, so many companies will be bankrupt that you will never see a V or U correction. What we will see is an L economic performance. That means DOWN and then Level at that poor rate of economic performance. That may last for ten years or longer.
You could very well be right, especially about the Dow going to 4000, but I am skeptical.
I look at Tobin's Q, which bottomed at 0.3 in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. Today, we would get to 400 on the SP500 at that level.
This time is being compared to the 30s. I think that is incorrect, at least in terms of its economic severity. However, if the stocks market reacts like it did in the 30s, once it 0.3x, it rose 180% over the next year and 240% over the next 3.5. That would put the SP500 at 1120 a year after and 1360 within 4. That's why I'm buying stocks today.
The median PE on the SP500 is 9.9x.
so are you like the s&p guy they had on cnn? you think it will bottom around 620-650?