Johnson End of June polls

Discussion in 'Gary Johnson' started by flacaltenn, Jul 13, 2016.

  1. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    When you read the polls that EXCLUDE Johnson/Weld --- pay attention to how the numbers add up. They are missing a big chunk and are therefore sketchy at best. If Clinton is leading Trump 43 to 40 in a particular race -- there's 17% refusing to choose. So as much as I hate polls. Especially since the "home phone" disappeared -- the analysis is in watching the uncommitted OR looking at polls that INCLUDE the Lib Party and/or Greens.

    Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

    A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.


    Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

    Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
    Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
    Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
    Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
    Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
    Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
    Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.
    Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.
     
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  2. Dont Taz Me Bro
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    Dont Taz Me Bro USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I don't know why at this point Johnson doesn't get included in every poll. You have a ticket with two former state governors and they made the ballot in all 50 states. Why would you exclude them? Those qualifications alone should be enough to get them in the debates come fall and I guarantee you'd see his numbers rise even higher if he was.
     
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  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    The Media is sold out for Hillary and they do most of the polling.
     
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  4. Bruce_T_Laney
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    Bruce_T_Laney Gold Member

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    MSM is not going to spend much time on the 17% that are not swaying either way. MSM is in the pocket of the two big political parties, so Johnson numbers will be hidden as much as possible because of the fear it could make the LP the alternative political party come this November.

    Also notice they are also shying away from Jill Stein and the reality is she could hurt Clinton come this November if Sanders voters feel Clinton is not the one for them.

    Need to get the poll numbers of the top two in the low thirties and have Johnson and Stein rise so that it will get MSM to pay more attention to the reality that many Americans are sick of both big ticket candidates...
     
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  5. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    This political season -- even the STATED choices of those polled are not solid. There is really only 1/2 of Dem party that are Clinton lemmings. That's 0.50 X 40% of registered voters. 20%. On the GOP side you have about 0.40 X 36% of registered voters that will HATE Trump but vote against Hillary. 14%

    Trump BRINGS IN a lot of non-GOP support from the "don't vote very often" crowd, and independents. Can't see that much "suction" from Hillary. So give Trump another 10 to 15% in his devoted fan base..

    OUTSIDE of this hard-core 34% party plus 12% Trump grassroots total --- there's still room to introduce a valid choice to the voters. About 50% of registered voters are STILL "in play"..
     
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  6. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    And only 1/2 of Registered voters actually VOTE. So if folks are APPALLED at the choices -- these "hardly ever" voters just MIGHT turn out to smack down the Dem/Rep choices.
     
  7. depotoo
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    depotoo Gold Member

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    So, just enough to give the Hill the election, more than likely..
     
  8. depotoo
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    depotoo Gold Member

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    And know I don't think I can pull the lever for Trump. Still thinking...
     
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  9. depotoo
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    depotoo Gold Member

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    It'd be nice if you are right.
     
  10. flacaltenn
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    flacaltenn Senior Mod Staff Member Senior USMB Moderator Gold Supporting Member

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    You might have missed the poll question that took 3rd parties OUT of the polling choices.
    Popular misconception. We can out-Liberal a LOT of Liberals on a LOT of topics. And we actually MEAN it. So getting lefty support in THIS election cycle is not a problem.

    If we were to rack up just 25 electoral votes -- In a tied race between Rep--Dem -- the LEADER would have to win by 26 electoral votes,. OR -- it goes into the House.

    So for you "you're gonna elect Hillary" voters -- who do you think the House would choose?
    Might not be UP to us.. And I mean -- ALL the voters when I say "us"... That "nuclear scenario" would put the LP on the spot for throwing support to EITHER candidate.

    HONESTLY -- I don't know if we WOULD "form a coalition" with EITHER candidate if it went to the House.
    Don't think we should..
     
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