Conservative
Type 40
Electoral Map Math Favors Romney - 2012 Decoded
For Romney, the most encouraging findings come out of Michigan, where several polls showed the race between Obama and Romney in a statistical dead heat. The findings were echoed today by NBC/Marist, which found Obama with a tenuous 48 percent job approval rating and only leading Romney, 44 to 39 percent. Obama won the state by 16 points in 2008. Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, Wednesday's Quinnipiac poll showed Obama with a 45 percent job approval rating, and only leading Romney, 45 to 39 percent. That's downright worrisome in a state, with 20 electoral votes, that the president can't afford to lose.
Still, the overall state-by-state numbers are good news for the Romney campaign. Obama's job approval is under 50 percent in all of them, and is in perilous territory in several must-win states. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the electoral math is looking better for Romney than Obama, given that several electorally-rich Democratic-friendly states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan -- now look like toss-ups.
he biggest test for Romney will come during the GOP convention and the fall debates when most voters will be tuning in for the first time - the poll numbers will probably be quite stable until then. If he can convince voters he's a credible challenger, the undecided voters (a majority of whom view the president's job performance negatively) are more likely to move into his corner.