Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red

[basquebromance]

CNN is fake news!

Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red - CNN

 

[ABikerSailor]

Well, gonna be interesting to see what happens in 12 months. They are saying the last time we had an inversion like this was in 2007, just before the economy tanked.

And, at the end of your link, it said that recessions generally take up to 12 months to happen after an inversion, they don't happen right away.

Gonna suck for Trump in 2020 if this article is right, because the economy is gonna melt down the last year Trump is in office, just like it did under Jr.

 

[DOTR]

Not true. An inverted yield curve indicates a recession likely in the next 24 months... or six months ago. It’s reliable but imprecise. But, if you want fail proof consider this....

Q: how do expansions end? A: recessions
100% of the time

Q: how do all bull markets end? A:bear markets.
100% of the time.

Take that to the bank.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Not true. An inverted yield curve indicates a recession likely in the next 24 months... or six months ago. It’s reliable but imprecise. But, if you want fail proof consider this....

Q: how do expansions end? A: recessions
100% of the time

Q: how do all bull markets end? A:bear markets.
100% of the time.

Take that to the bank.

From the OP's link.........................

Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note that investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."
And he noted that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion — not immediately.


The economist said that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion. He's the expert, so I'm gonna listen to what they say.

 

[DOTR]

Also, though this indicator has a huge success rate, this time might very well be different. That slope on the front end....could it be distorted by financial repression? Does the chart below indicate in any way, shape,or form a normal interest rate market?

 

[Dekster]

Normally I would blame this on China's slowdown making it harder to move bonds, but with the mortgage rates trending down still, I think we will be in a recession by fall

 

[Votto]

Well, gonna be interesting to see what happens in 12 months. They are saying the last time we had an inversion like this was in 2007, just before the economy tanked.

And, at the end of your link, it said that recessions generally take up to 12 months to happen after an inversion, they don't happen right away.

Gonna suck for Trump in 2020 if this article is right, because the economy is gonna melt down the last year Trump is in office, just like it did under Jr.

Wow, will the coincidences ever cease?

 

[DOTR]

Not true. An inverted yield curve indicates a recession likely in the next 24 months... or six months ago. It’s reliable but imprecise. But, if you want fail proof consider this....

Q: how do expansions end? A: recessions
100% of the time

Q: how do all bull markets end? A:bear markets.
100% of the time.

Take that to the bank.

From the OP's link.........................

Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners, said in a note that investors should wait for weekly and monthly averages to show an inversion before they read it as a "powerful recession signal."
And he noted that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion — not immediately.


The economist said that on average, recessions occur 12 months after an inversion. He's the expert, so I'm gonna listen to what they say.

An inversion is not a dip. An inversion means it stays inverted for a long period of time like in 2007. It has inverted several times since then but they don’t count if it bounces right back.

Here is an expert for you.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

What you get for listening to “experts”.

I’m not denying the significance of the yield curve. I was trying to say it’s imprecise and probably less reliable than the simple fact that we are (1) waaay overdue and (2) living in markets so very distorted nobody knows signal from noise.

And with CNN you have a lot of wishful thinking and hoping for Americans to be hurt before the election.

 

[DOTR]

Well, gonna be interesting to see what happens in 12 months. They are saying the last time we had an inversion like this was in 2007, just before the economy tanked.

And, at the end of your link, it said that recessions generally take up to 12 months to happen after an inversion, they don't happen right away.

Gonna suck for Trump in 2020 if this article is right, because the economy is gonna melt down the last year Trump is in office, just like it did under Jr.

Wow, will the coincidences ever cease?

They are salivating at the thought of a “melt down” just before the election.

Ever notice that for whatever is good for America is bad for Democrats and vice versa?
They face a huge defeat and they know it. Their only hope is something really bad happening which the media can pin in Trump.

 

[Votto]

Well, gonna be interesting to see what happens in 12 months. They are saying the last time we had an inversion like this was in 2007, just before the economy tanked.

And, at the end of your link, it said that recessions generally take up to 12 months to happen after an inversion, they don't happen right away.

Gonna suck for Trump in 2020 if this article is right, because the economy is gonna melt down the last year Trump is in office, just like it did under Jr.

Wow, will the coincidences ever cease?

They are salivating at the thought of a “melt down” just before the election.

Ever notice that for whatever is good for America is bad for Democrats and vice versa?
They face a huge defeat and they know it. Their only hope is something really bad happening which the media can pin in Trump.

It seems to me that the Swamp might be in control of such things.

Nothing surprises me now

 

[DOTR]

Liberals have correctly predicted 5 of the last 5 4 3 2 1 0 recessions

 

[DOTR]

Well, gonna be interesting to see what happens in 12 months. They are saying the last time we had an inversion like this was in 2007, just before the economy tanked.

And, at the end of your link, it said that recessions generally take up to 12 months to happen after an inversion, they don't happen right away.

Gonna suck for Trump in 2020 if this article is right, because the economy is gonna melt down the last year Trump is in office, just like it did under Jr.

Wow, will the coincidences ever cease?

They are salivating at the thought of a “melt down” just before the election.

Ever notice that for whatever is good for America is bad for Democrats and vice versa?
They face a huge defeat and they know it. Their only hope is something really bad happening which the media can pin in Trump.

It seems to me that the Swamp might be in control of such things.

Nothing surprises me now

I agree...never underestimate the collusion between Washington Deep State and the media. You’ve seen their wish list in the posts above...if they could they would.
But I think they have already done their worst. That heinous bout of financial repression they used to prop Obama up will pop and they hope it will damage Trump. But Economics follows its own laws.

 

[DOTR]

Financial repression - Wikipedia

 

[Meathead]

CNN is fake news!

Dow falls nearly 400 points as recession indicator flashes red - CNN

God, that's CNN-stupid.