Data shows recession worse than we thought

[Ravi]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9 percent -- the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown | Reuters

 

[expat_panama]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008...

The Reuters may know a lot about impressing a bit bunch of learning impaired, but they don't know anything about economic data. In the first place, "data" can't be one number, data are many numbers. In the second place, the fourth quarter of 2008 began the recession and ''the depth" came later with new depths are being reached as the data flow in.

 

[Ravi]

Wuh?

So you are saying the recession wasn't worse than we thought?

 

[Skull Pilot]

Anyone but an economist working for the fucking government could have told you that.

 

[waltky]

Recession may be causing women to have fewer or no children, suggests demographer...

Economic turmoil taking its toll on childbearing
8/12/2011 - Women starting families today might not think they have a lot in common with women during the Great Depression, but a new government analysis of birth data suggests otherwise.

The struggling economy may be causing women of childbearing age to have fewer or no children, suggests demographer Sharon Kirmeyer of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lead author of two reports out Thursday that analyzed historical childbearing data. Census data show that in 2010, 18.8% of women ages 40-44 were childless, echoing a trend from the 1930s found in the CDC analysis. Of 100,000 women born in 1910 who turned 25 in 1935 at the height of the Great Depression, 19.7% were childless by age 50. Demographers know that fertility rates drop during economic turmoil. "The longer this goes on, the more likely it is to lead to a prolonged shift in fertility," says Mark Mather of the non-profit Population Reference Bureau.

Sociologist W. Bradford Wilcox of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville studies marriage and birth trends and has a consulting company that issues periodic fertility forecasts. For women in their 20s and early 30s, Wilcox suggests "an uptick in childlessness" and one-child families. "The recession is driving the fertility rate down. A larger share of women will be forgoing or postponing births until the economy kicks into high gear," he says. The total number of births, a record 4.3 million in 2007, dropped 7% to 4 million in 2010, he says. The total fertility rate was 2.13 births per 1,000 women in 2007; his estimate for 2010 is 1.91 births.

Wilcox says a key element in the mix is unemployment among young adults. "It's not just the economy as a whole that matters, but how is the economy doing in employing younger adults," he says. "If the recovery kicks in a way that fuels higher employment among young adults, it will be the most direct factor that's likely to lift the fertility rate again."

Kirmeyer notes that the one-child household is the norm for the well-educated in Eastern Europe. "It could happen here," she says. Historian Stephanie Coontz of the Evergreen State College in Olympia, Wash., isn't convinced. She expects some gradual increases in childlessness, "but it would be a mistake to say the decline is indefinitely downward."

Source

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Rising demand for oil could lead to global double-dip recession
August 12, 2011 - Many are forecasting higher oil prices next year, due to increased global consumption and decreased output from Libya and other oil-producing nations. That could threaten global economic recovery.

When the global economy slows, one of the few bright spots for consumers is a little relief at the pump, with gas prices falling in response to slowing demand. But this time around, oil prices look set to stay firm, and perhaps rise, through a stagnant growth cycle. Warning bells are sounding from commodities analysts and institutions like the International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized economies. So far, demand for oil products is slowing in tandem with global economic growth, especially in OECD countries, which explains why the average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States has fallen 30 cents to $3.67 from three months ago.

But it’s unlikely that they’ll drop much more. In fact, oil prices could rise even as industrial production stagnates in major industrialized countries like the US. That’s because global oil production is not growing fast enough to offset supply cuts – namely from Libya - and consumption is increasing in emerging economies like China. The IEA in its August oil market report released Wednesday cut its demand outlook for the remainder of 2011 by a measly 60,000 barrels per day. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to 90 million bpd of demand. For 2012, it raised its forecast by 70,000 bpd. Both revisions take into account the latest market turmoil and growth forecasts. Year on year, global oil demand will rise 1.2 million bpd in 2011 and 1.6 million bpd in 2012, according to the IEA.

For industrialized economies, rising demand is coming at the worst time possible, with governments running out of stimulus options and the prospects for economic growth and job creation looking grim. Diane Munro, senior oil market analyst in the Paris-based IEA, says that oil prices usually fall in a recession – setting the stage for eventual economic recovery by reducing the cost of a major business input. But this time around she thinks that slow economic recovery “will outpace any price relief at the pump. The income effect will outstrip any relief.”

Supply, meanwhile, will increase nowhere near as fast as demand. Non-OPEC oil supply will only rise by 0.4 million bpd in 2011 and by 1 million bpd in 2012, the IEA predicted. OPEC countries don’t appear to have the capacity to meet rising demand, despite Saudi Arabia pumping at the highest level in 30 years. That indicates oil and pump prices will rise, increasing the risk of a global double-dip recession. “You’ve had a price correction,” says Harry Tchilinguirian, a London-based senior oil market analyst with BNP Paribas. “However in the end the factors that led to the recent run-up in prices are still with us. The issue is whether we will have enough oil when the time comes. That is not evident. Oil prices will very likely rise again to $100 bpd [from the current $80 bpd].”

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[Ravi]

On having fewer children: that's a great argument for legalizing thousands and thousands of immigrants so they can pay taxes.

 

[Douger]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDN9y2vTdUs]The Doors - The End (1967) - YouTube[/ame]

 

[editec]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9 percent -- the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown | Reuters

It may be worse than the government thought.

It may be worse than world famous economist thought, too.

But I can assure you that the people on the bottom of the heap totally understood how truly bad it has been.

The people don't need to be told what the economic indicators are because the people ARE the economic indicators.

 

[Mad Scientist]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9 percent -- the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown | Reuters

Obviously we need another round of Quantitative Easing.

 

[waltky]

Is what Warren Buffett said on Charlie Rose last night...

Economists: Second US Recession, If It Hits, Could Hit Hard
August 15, 2011 - Some economists are worried that the United States is poised for another recession. They warn that a so-called "double-dip," if it comes, could be more painful for average Americans than the 2007-2008 recession. Jobs, incomes, output and industrial production are all weaker now than they were then. One sector that has been hit especially hard is housing.

Mark Hudson is a real estate agent in Washington, D.C., one of the areas that has been least affected by the housing and construction bust. He peruses the day’s list of homes for sale. “We are down about 40 percent from June 2005 to June 2011 in home sales. That affects every potential area of the economy everywhere and we are, frankly, being close to Washington, in better shape then a lot of the areas of the country," he said. One of the homes Hudson is currently trying to sell is in a historic district in a suburb of Washington.

He says he’ll sell the house for much less than he would have several years ago. And that reduced housing prices have a real impact on peoples’ personal wealth. “If they had sold it a few years ago they would have cleared 'X,' now they are going to clear $100,000 to $150,000 less. That is money they could use in retirement or for buying a new house or for putting their kids in college, so it absolutely affects their personal wealth,” Hudson said. Robust home sales and construction can help drive an economic recovery. But economist Karen Dynan says that probably won’t happen this time around.

“The real issue now is that demand is so weak because people don’t want to buy homes when their income prospects are so weak. When they are worried that house prices are going to fall further and until we can see that demand rise again we are not going to see home-building rise in a way that is contributing to economic growth,” Dynan said. Many economists say that fear of the unknown is feeding consumers’ hesitancy. That fear has rocked global financial markets, following a downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt and a long-running and highly fractious political debate over raising the nation’s debt ceiling.

“Pessimism can be self-fulfilling. If a consumer wakes up one day and is worried about the future and doesn’t go out and spend, then retailers are going to see weak demand and they are not going to hire as much and income will weaken and that in turn will leader consumers to have even less inclination to spend,” Dynan said. Hudson says that with his personal income down by more than 50 percent, he’s certainly spending less. And he’s worried about what’s to come. “If there’s a recession, I don’t know what I would do because I have cut as much as I could, I believe. I guess I could do more but it would be difficult. I have cut as much as I can at this point, so it’s kind of a scary question,” Hudson said.

Source

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World Bank Chief Warns of New Danger Ahead
August 13, 2011 - The president of the World Bank is warning the world's already troubled economic recovery is in even greater trouble.

World Bank chief Robert Zoellick told The Weekend Australian newspaper the global economy has entered what he called a "new and more dangerous phase."

In the interview, published Saturday, Zoellick put most of the blame on debt problems in Europe. He urged European leaders to tackle the debt crisis with more urgency but said there is little finance officials can do with monetary policy to ease the strain.

He also expressed concerns that the recent riots in Britain could dissuade the government there from moving forward with a series of announced austerity measures.

Zoellick is in Australia for an official visit and is scheduled to meet with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and other top officials. He said Australia's close ties with many growing East Asian and Pacific economies should help the country's economy in the short term.

Source

 

[waltky]

Recession affecting the children...

National child welfare survey examines recession
Aug 17,`11 -- Karla Washington worries how she will afford new school uniforms for her five-year-old daughter.

Washington, an undergraduate student, earns less than $11,000 a year from a part-time university job. The salary must cover food, rent, health care, child care and the occasional splurge on a Blue's Clues item for her only child. "My biggest fear is not providing my daughter with everything that she needs to be a balanced child, to be independent, to be safe, to feel like she is of value," said Washington, 41. Washington's economic woes are seen throughout Nevada, where the nation's highest unemployment and foreclosure rates have combined to devastate families and empty neighborhoods and construction yards.

A national study on child well-being to be published Wednesday found Nevada had the highest rate of children whose parents are unemployed and underemployed. The state is also home to the most children affected by foreclosures - 13 percent of all Silver State babies, toddlers and teenagers have been kicked out of their homes because of an unpaid mortgage, the study found. Across the nation, the research by the Annie E. Casey Foundation found that child poverty increased in 38 states from 2000 to 2009. As a result, 14.7 million children, 20 percent, were poor in 2009. That represents a 2.5 million increase from 2000, when 17 percent of the nation's youth lived in low-income homes.

In the foundation's first examination of the impact of the recession on the nation's children, the researchers concluded that low-income children will likely suffer academically, economically and socially long after their parents have recovered. "People who grew up in a financially secure situation find it easier to succeed in life, they are more likely to graduate from high school, more likely to graduate from college and these are things that will lead to greater success in life," said Stephen Brown, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "What we are looking at is a cohort of kids who as they become adults may be less able to contribute to the growth of the economy. It could go on for multiple generations."

The annual survey monitored by policy makers across the nation concludes that children from low-income families are more likely to be raised in unstable environments and change schools than their wealthier peers. As a result, they are less likely to be gainfully employed as adults. There are other social costs. Economically disadvantaged children can result in reduced economic output, higher health expenditures and increased criminal justice costs for society, the survey concludes. The research is based on data from many sources, including the Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey and U.S. Census Bureau. "Even if you don't care about kids and all you care about is your own well-being, then you ought to be concerned," said Patrick McCarthy, president of the Baltimore, Md.-based charity. "... We've got to think about what kind of state, what kind of country we can expect to have if we are not investing in the success of our children."

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[waltky]

Granny says Morgan Stanley oughta know - dey one o' the ones dat got us into this mess...

U.S. 'dangerously close' to recession - Morgan Stanley report
August 18, 2011: A pessimistic report on the global economy from Morgan Stanley -- particularly about the United States and Europe -- sent the world's stock markets tumbling Thursday.

European stocks were sharply lower in morning trading. Germany's DAX (DAX) fell nearly 4%, while Britain's FT-100 (UKX) and France's CAC-40 (CAC40) were both down more than 2%. U.S. stock futures pointed to a 2% sell-off at the 9:30 a.m. ET open. Asian markets finished more than 1% lower. In its report, Morgan Stanley lowered its global growth forecast to 3.9% this year from 4.2%, and to 3.8% in 2012 from 4.5%.

It also said the United States and Europe were "dangerously close" to a recession over the next 6 to 12 months. It said "policy errors" in both the United States and Europe had led to the global downgrade.

But Morgan Stanley also said any recession would not be as severe as the one that crippled world economies in 2008, saying household, corporate and bank balance sheets are in better shape now, and that central banks have looser lending policies.

Source

See also:

Economists see growing risk of global recession
Aug 18,`11 WASHINGTON (AP) -- Discouraging economic data from around the globe have heightened fears that another recession is on the way.

Fresh evidence emerged Thursday that U.S. home sales and manufacturing are weakening. Signs also surfaced that European banks are increasingly burdened by the region's debt crisis and sputtering economy. The rising anxiety ignited a huge sell-off in stocks that led many investors to seek the safety of U.S. Treasurys.

Economists say the economic weakness and the stock markets' wild swings have begun to feed on themselves. Persistent drops in stock prices erode consumer and business confidence. Individuals and companies typically then spend and invest less. And when they do, stock prices tend to fall further.

"A negative feedback loop ... now appears to be in the making" in both the United States and Europe, Joachim Fels and Manoj Pradhan, economists at Morgan Stanley, said in a report Thursday. Both economies are "dangerously close to a recession. ... It won't take much in the form of additional shocks to tip the balance." The risk of a recession is now about one in three, according to Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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[iamwhatiseem]

I don't particularly buy this...one way or another.
The media, especially this year, have flopped back and forth so much on the economy that any credibility they did have (which was razor thin to begin with) is now completely loss.
I have enjoyed scanning economic headlines on a daily basis as the DOW has gone up and down this year - I only wish I would have kept a spreadsheet of the headlines.
Just hilarious....literally in a matter of hours the main stories all paint a rosy picture when the DOW is climbing...and suddenly horror stories set the tone when the DOW is takes a turn going down. It is like they have two folders of stories...one all good...one all bad...whatever the DOW is doing - they go to the respective folder and put them up.

 

[editec]

Lifeboat Follies
or
Economic Darwinism -How I stopped Worrying About the Economy and Learned to Love Free Market Treason
(a play in one act)​

The economic ship of state is sinking.

To the lifeboats!

Bansters and fat-cats, first.

But wait...they're not even on this sinking economic ship of state are they?

In fact, they're the guys who torpedoed this economic ship of state the rest of us are on.

Hey, wait again! Where are our lifeboats?

The masters scuttled those they couldn't move and they sold the rest of the to China years ago.

(Pan to long view of sinking ship while bringing up the tune Nearer to God than Thee as the screen fades to black)​

Fin​

 

[Sallow]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9 percent -- the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown | Reuters

Had a thread on this several weeks ago..

But it's the gift that keeps on giving.

Bush's numbers were wrong.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9 percent -- the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

Data shows deeper recession, sharper slowdown | Reuters

Had a thread on this several weeks ago..

But it's the gift that keeps on giving.

Bush's numbers were wrong.

C'mon Sallow...your not that simple-minded...leave these kinds of post to TM and rdean.
The makings of this recession began in the late 1970's...grew exponentially in the 80's and even after the fall...the same practices are continuing today.
That encompasses 6 Presidents...just happens to be 3 dems and 3 repubs...which might give a clue that who was President at the time is not necessarily effective one way or another. Keep in mind that the practices that lead to all this grew as rapidly under Reagan as Clinton....just in different ways.
One of these days I am going to get you to join the rest of us...those willing to critique both sides of the aisle.