Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?
There is probably a better forum for this--fine with me if it is moved.
I don't know anything about the individual/Turchin who formulated this hypothesis. University of Connecticut--mathematician, ?environmental science and I don't know what else.
Things seem 'pretty bad now'--so I went to Google.
<Pigliucci isn't convinced that the 50-year cycle of violence Turchin has identified in U.S. history reflects more than just a random fluctuation. "The database is too short: the entire study covers the period 1780-2010, a mere 230 years," Pigliucci wrote in an email. "You can fit at most four 50-year peaks and two secular ones. I just don't see how one could reasonably exclude that the observed pattern is random. But of course we would have to wait a lot longer to collect new data and find out."
Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away.>
There is probably a better forum for this--fine with me if it is moved.
I don't know anything about the individual/Turchin who formulated this hypothesis. University of Connecticut--mathematician, ?environmental science and I don't know what else.
Things seem 'pretty bad now'--so I went to Google.
<Pigliucci isn't convinced that the 50-year cycle of violence Turchin has identified in U.S. history reflects more than just a random fluctuation. "The database is too short: the entire study covers the period 1780-2010, a mere 230 years," Pigliucci wrote in an email. "You can fit at most four 50-year peaks and two secular ones. I just don't see how one could reasonably exclude that the observed pattern is random. But of course we would have to wait a lot longer to collect new data and find out."
Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away.>
Last edited:
