Crushing A Cruncher

Flanders

ARCHCONSERVATIVE
Sep 23, 2010
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Say what you will about Dan Rather’s fall from grace, but say this as well: In his heyday Dan said he did not trust polls. Logically, he did not trust pollsters either.

Call it a paraphrase if you must, but I call it an update:


There are four kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, and polls.

Having updated Mark Twain, or whoever said it first, I must confess: I consider a poll the word of God whenever it echoes my opinion.

So why replace the word statistics with the word polls since poll results are expressed as statistics? One answer is that the word statistic has long been associated with lying, while the word poll has been scrubbed clean.

Another answer is that mass communications brought big money to polling. Big money requires a squeaky-clean image especially in politics; whereas, manipulating statistics for a limited audience in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries did not pay that well.

Radio and motion pictures constituted mass communications before television. With that in mind, I believe that the 1947 movie Magic Town starring James Stewart was an important advance for poll-takers. Magic Town reached a large audience; convincing many that opinion-polling was reputable. Opinion-polling was Stewart’s failing business in the movie. (Imagine naming a business Opinion-Statistic)!

Note that professional polling organizations never use “Opinion” in their titles. It’s the Gallup Poll, the Quinnipiac Poll, the CBS Poll, the FOX News Poll, and so on.

The bright light of reality exposing a pollster always gives pleasure. Happily, Frank Luntz has been outed by C. Edmund Wright over at the American Thinker:


Meanwhile, it is becoming obvious that Luntz has become a prisoner of his own results over the years, and as such, has become obsessed with what misinformation voters already believe. He seems to have lost interest in the value of persuading voters to believe the truth. To Luntz, and to Karl Rove, and in fact most to Republican consultants, a poll or a focus group is not the starting point for voter education, it is the end point for candidate capitulation. This explains the constant surrender in the arena of ideas by candidates and spokes persons who are ostensibly on "our side."

I cannot add to Wright’s exposé except to say that all pollsters are media bottom-feeders. News is such a farce the people who pay the salaries ordered talking heads to treat pollsters as legitimate sources of “news.” Ditto print journalism.

I don’t surf into the liberal networks; so I can only imagine what their pollsters are promoting. I do know that pollsters abound on the FOXY Network. None more than Luntz who gets a lot of face time on Sean Hannity’s show. That makes me think Luntz’s office is located deep in the bowels of FOX News headquarters.

Polls and propaganda are inseparable. The poll itself becomes a news story. The information a survey gathers is propaganda designed to manipulate the public. At the very least pollsters engage in newspeak.

Even if a pollster is honest he can be manipulated by politicians trying to increase their favorable ratings by saying things that appeals to their base. Example: Hussein’s numbers start slipping so he goes on television and talks about hope and change. Bingo! A poll is taken showing that his numbers inch up a point or two for a few days.

Add media bias to reporting poll numbers as news and you have propaganda in its purest form. If the media did not report poll results the polling industry would shrink considerably. There would still be internal polls that the public never sees anyway, but the manipulation factor would be gone.

Political polls are basically scorecards telling everybody which idea is leading on the day the poll is taken. Popularity polls tell us the day to day score on presidents. Polls often report the president’s job approval number in addition to how much the public likes or dislikes him. Once in a while the public gets a running score on a minor league player like the speaker of the house.

Polls done on institutions like Congress most often use the terms approve or disapprove since Congress is never popular. The word “rating” qualifies the terms favorable and unfavorable although I’ve never been certain how approve and disapprove differs from favorable and unfavorable?

Surveying public opinion, often called polling, is a huge business in America. Everything from public figures to institutions to ideas gets polled these days. I have a hunch that the growth of the polling industry is bound up with selling democracy. Asking people what they think makes them believe they have a say in government.

Since polls have become so prominent in politicks it’s time to take a poll on democracy. Asking average Americans would be a waste of time. Big government advocates would praise democracy; champions of limited government would oppose democracy; wimps and idiots would say use the best of both. That would bring us back to liberal versus conservative. So I suggest that everybody who is interested in this topic conduct their own survey; a scorecard based on the observations of all of the great political thinkers in history.

The survey I suggest is easy to do. There are numerous websites listing quotations about democracy. You can get started with the disc containing your computer dictionary. Those discs usually include a book of quotations. Should you get into the survey, I think you’ll be surprised by the political thinkers who disapproved of democracy as well as the few who thought democracy was the greatest invention since the wheel. And there are plenty of books available for anyone who wants to go deeper than quotes. One such tome, Politics, by Aristotle might have been talking about the XVII Amendment:


Those who hold office with a short tenure can hardly do as much harm as those who have a long tenure; and it is long possession of office which leads to the rise of tyrannies in oligarchies and democracies. Those who make a bid for tyranny are either the [demagogues] or else the holders of the main offices who have held them for a long period. Aristotle

Just to be clear, I am not suggesting a consensus in the same way that climate change hustlers claimed scientific truth because a consensus of like-minded scientists agreed on the best route to the public trough. Unlike science, there are no absolutes in politicks. I am simply trying to show that many more political thinkers disapproved of democracy than approved. Put it this way: I trust America’s Founding Fathers who had no use for democracy more than I trust Mikhail Gorbachev:

Democracy is the wholesome and pure air without which a socialist public organization cannot live a full-blooded life. Mikhail Gorbachev (b. 1931), Soviet president. Speech, 25 Feb. 1986, to 27th Party Congress, Moscow.

Here are the links to the two fabulous articles I quoted:

April 29, 2013
Frank Luntz and Focus Groups are Destroying the GOP Message
By C. Edmund Wright

XXXXX

March 21, 2010
Aristotle's Warning
By Ed Kaitz

Archived-Articles: Aristotle's Warning
 
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Number Crunchers outdid themselves on this one:

The results come from a poll by Wenzel of Wenzel Strategies, who found that Hillary Clinton is winning 55 percent of the support from respondents who said they plan to vote in the Democrat Party primary.

But in the No. 2 position was Michelle Obama, with support from 19 percent of the respondents.

XXXXX

WND reported earlier that political junkies were creating a buzz over a “dream” ticket of Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

According to the Washington Examiner, former Clinton spokeswoman Karen Finney said, “All due respect for President Obama and Vice President Biden, but that would truly be a dream team for America.”

Obama to be Democratic nominee in 2016?
Look who's ahead in early poll for next election
Published: 9 hours ago
BOB UNRUH

Obama to be Democratic nominee in 2016?

There is one serious problem with the dream team. MO is a better crook than Clinton. Clinton’s larceny at the Rose Law Firm, cattle futures, and Whitewater did not net her as much money as MO’s salary netted from her job at the University of Chicago Hospital, and MO stole it legally. She might always look like she is auditioning for a role in the next Planet of the Apes movie, but my money is on her. Always give the job to the best person. Clinton will probably get the top spot on the ticket, but MO is definitely the best crook of the two.

American elections are so bizarre nothing shakes me anymore. I was sure nothing would ever top Joe Biden being one heartbeat away from the presidency. After Biden I realized the only way to hold onto my sanity was to enjoy the humor the clowns provided. The clowns were men in the past. (I don’t recall feminazis demanding equal Rights in the clown field.)

Oh well, I don’t know about Hillary Clinton being the first woman president, but she sure as hell will be the first woman clown on the Democrat party ticket should she get the nomination, and she certainly can use clown makeup so she can stop pushing her face into a gruesome clown smile:


hillary-clinton-michelle-obama-600.jpg


Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama​
 
You know it is terribly easy to lie about your narrative without ever saying one thing that is NOT TRUE.

Partial truth is the hallmark of that kind of PARTISANS' BIG LIE.

And nothing can confuse the easily confuse-able like a PARTIAL TRUTH that one can ferret out of TRUE statistics.
 
You know it is terribly easy to lie about your narrative without ever saying one thing that is NOT TRUE.

Partial truth is the hallmark of that kind of PARTISANS' BIG LIE.

And nothing can confuse the easily confuse-able like a PARTIAL TRUTH that one can ferret out of TRUE statistics.

To editec: I think my reading comprehension skills are above average, but what in God’s name are you talking about? I’m sure it makes sense to you, but you’ll have say it in English for the rest of us.
 
I'm sorry Flanders.

It is the nature of expository writing that when one talks about truth v lies, the sentences and thinking behind them get a little muddled.

Let me try again.

The very best lying narratives (that is to say the greater story) are supported by HALF TRUTHS.

For instance...let me give a half truth that is statistically true, but narratively used as a LIE

The half truth

"The Wealthy pay 60% of all taxes"

That stat (I made up the numbers, but you are familiar with the narrative I am sure) is HALF TRUE.

Why?

Because of the vague use of the term "taxes"


The whole truth would stated


"The Wealthy pay 60% of FEDERAL INCOME TAXES"

See my point, now?


Leaving out known relevant facts AND carefully using ambiguous language makes it easy to TELL A LIE without ever uttering a single fact that is NOT true.


That is what propaganists most often do to spread a lie, mate.

They speak in partial TRUTHS.
 
the sentences and thinking behind them get a little muddled.

To editec: Not to mention the conclusions.

As to the rest of your response: I’m still not certain what you specifically see as propaganda in the OP; nevertheless, the words doublespeak and/or misdirection would have covered the point you were trying to make.
 
Quoting your Aristotle Warning Link, Flanders:



Fourth, Aristotle made the interesting observation that when your enemies are "close at hand," you have an equally good chance of preserving your constitution as when your enemies are far away. He says that when the defenders of a constitution are anxious about their more proximate enemies, they tend to watch over their constitution "like sentinels on night-duty."

I believe we are about there. I like this maxim. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. - Aristotle. Kind of sums up much of the opposition here. - Jeri
 
You think my thinking was muddled, Flanders?

Okay, I cannot dumb it down any more than that, but I still appreciate the opportunity to try to explain it to you.
 
I like this maxim. When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. - Aristotle. Kind of sums up much of the opposition here. - Jeri

To Jeri: An excellent choice. Our friends on the Left have been engaging in the politics of personal destruction for so long it’s difficult remembering when they last said anything intelligent.

You think my thinking was muddled, Flanders?

To editec: In #5 permalink you said your thinking was muddled. I added your conclusions.

Okay, I cannot dumb it down any more than that,

To editec: I cannot see how muddled thinking can be dumbed down.

but I still appreciate the opportunity to try to explain it to you.

To editec: A major flaw with message boards.
 
El Rushbo said something about polls the other day that reminded me of this thread:
. . . Larry Sabato, who is the political scientist extraordinaire at the University of Virginia, alarmed many on the Republican side by saying (paraphrasing), "What wave? I don't see any evidence of a Republican wave election victory." Everybody's been talking about it under the assumption that things are so bad, that people are so fed up that they're gonna automatically vote for Republicans. That they'll keep the House. That they'll pick up enough seats in the Senate to control it and maybe even blow it out.

And then Sabato came along yesterday and said, "What wave? I don't see any wave." And then that caused Jim Geraghty at The Campaign Spot at National Review Online -- it's a blog post -- Geraghty said, "Where's the polling data on these Senate races?" There isn't any polling data out there on these Senate races. No wonder nobody's talking about the wave. The media's not doing any polling data on all of these Democrat seats in the Senate that are vulnerable. There's no polling data. That's why there's no report of a wave; the media has stopped polling it.

Why would they stop polling? Because they don't want to report the results. Why wouldn't they care about that? Why wouldn't they want to report the results? Because the results apparently would not advance the Democrat agenda. You see, polling is not anything related to news. Polling is the creation of news.

Can Anybody Find the GOP Campaign?
August 27, 2014

Can Anybody Find the GOP Campaign - The Rush Limbaugh Show
Aside from Rush’s accurate analysis of media polls I see the coming election as more of an undertow pulling Democrats out to sea without a life preserver rather than a cresting wave dumping Republicans into office.

Traditional wisdom says that voters vote for something rather than against something. That is still true of the parasite class; they will always vote for more free stuff. However, Democrats gave voters so much to vote against in this November’s midterms, I cannot see them hanging on with promises of more of the same. More importantly, Democrats cannot blame conservative Republicans for the mess. They cannot even blame Karl Rove’s Republicans or Bush the Younger.

Finally, I also want to offer a self explanatory addition to #2 permalink:

When has Hillary Clinton ever been right on foreign policy?

The valkyrie of the Democratic Party says she urged President Obama to do more to aid Syrian rebels years ago. And last summer, she supported air strikes on Bashar Assad’s regime.

Had we followed her advice and crippled Assad’s army, ISIS might be in Damascus today, butchering Christians and Alawites and aiding the Islamic State in Iraq in overrunning Baghdad.

But if the folly of attacking Assad’s army and weakening its resistance to ISIS terrorists is apparent to everyone this summer, why were Clinton, Obama and Secretary of State Kerry oblivious to this reality just a year ago?

Has Hillary ever been right?
Pat Buchanan wants Syrians, Turks, Kurds and Iraqis to take care of ISIS
Published: 12 hours ago
Patrick J. Buchanan

Has Hillary ever been right
 
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