Dragon
Senior Member
- Sep 16, 2011
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Here's something that occurred to me recently. Every Communist country that has ever existed has defied Marxist predictions. That is, every Communist country in history has been one that Marx would have said was impossible.
Here's what I mean. According to Marxist theory, civilization progresses according to a fixed sequence determined by economics and class struggle. A feudal/agrarian economy becomes a capitalist/industrial economy as the rising bourgeoisie (or capitalist class) struggles against the aristocracy and wins. Only AFTER THAT does a mature industrial capitalist country see the workers' revolt that is supposed to establish a socialist economy.
But if you look at the list of Communist revolutions in history -- Russia, China, Vietnam, Cuba -- NONE of these occurred in mature industrial capitalist countries! All of them jumped the gun, so to speak, and went straight from a feudal/agrarian economy to a socialist economy. And that, according to Marxist theory, is not supposed to happen.
At the same time, the genuine mature industrial capitalist economies did experience worker revolt just as Marx predicted, but the outcomes of that revolt defied his predictions. Nowhere was the capitalist democracy overthrown and a "dictatorship of the proletariat" created. Always there was reform, mixing socialist elements with capitalism and providing the working class with a share of the proceeds.
Meanwhile, the allegedly Communist countries industrialized by a different, socialist road, with the investment of capital controlled by the state rather than by private individuals. In the long run, centralized socialism proved no better at running an industrialized economy than laissez-faire capitalism, although also no worse, and either one sufficed to do the job of industrializing itself.
My own conclusion is that Marx had some interesting insights but the world is more complex than he thought it was.
Here's what I mean. According to Marxist theory, civilization progresses according to a fixed sequence determined by economics and class struggle. A feudal/agrarian economy becomes a capitalist/industrial economy as the rising bourgeoisie (or capitalist class) struggles against the aristocracy and wins. Only AFTER THAT does a mature industrial capitalist country see the workers' revolt that is supposed to establish a socialist economy.
But if you look at the list of Communist revolutions in history -- Russia, China, Vietnam, Cuba -- NONE of these occurred in mature industrial capitalist countries! All of them jumped the gun, so to speak, and went straight from a feudal/agrarian economy to a socialist economy. And that, according to Marxist theory, is not supposed to happen.
At the same time, the genuine mature industrial capitalist economies did experience worker revolt just as Marx predicted, but the outcomes of that revolt defied his predictions. Nowhere was the capitalist democracy overthrown and a "dictatorship of the proletariat" created. Always there was reform, mixing socialist elements with capitalism and providing the working class with a share of the proceeds.
Meanwhile, the allegedly Communist countries industrialized by a different, socialist road, with the investment of capital controlled by the state rather than by private individuals. In the long run, centralized socialism proved no better at running an industrialized economy than laissez-faire capitalism, although also no worse, and either one sufficed to do the job of industrializing itself.
My own conclusion is that Marx had some interesting insights but the world is more complex than he thought it was.