Climate change worse than originally thought

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Chris, Jan 3, 2010.

  1. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    * Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19 degree Celsius per decade. The trend has continued over the last 10 years despite a decrease in radiation from the sun.

    * The studies show extreme hot temperature events have increased, extreme cold temperature events have decreased, heavy rain or snow has become heavier, while there has been increase in drought as well.

    They also show that the intensity of cyclones has increased in the past three decades in line with rising tropical ocean temperatures.

    * Satellites show recent global average sea level rise (3.4 mm/year over the past 15 years) to be about 80 percent above IPCC predictions. This acceleration is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice sheets.

    New estimates of ocean heat uptake are 50 percent higher than previous calculations. Global ocean surface temperature reached the warmest ever recorded in June, July and August 2009. Ocean acidification and ocean de-oxygenation due to global warming have been identified as potentially devastating for large parts of the marine ecosystem.

    * By 2100, global sea level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by the IPCC in 2007; if emissions are unmitigated the rise may well exceed one metre.

    The sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilised, and several metres of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

    * A wide array of satellite and ice measurements demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

    The contribution of glaciers and ice-caps to global sea level rise has increased from 0.8 mm per year in the 1990s to 1.2 mm per year today. The adjustment of glaciers and ice caps to present climate alone is expected to raise sea level by about 18 cm. Under warming conditions they may contribute as much as around 55 cm by 2100.

    The net loss of ice from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated since the mid-1990s and is now contributing 0.7 mm per year to sea level rise due to both increased melting and accelerated ice flow. Antarctica is also losing ice mass at an increasing rate, mostly from the West Antarctic ice sheet due to increased ice flow. Antarctica is currently contributing to sea level rise at a rate nearly equal to Greenland.

    * Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of summertime sea-ice 2007-09 was about 40 percent less than the average prediction from IPCC climate models in the 2007 report.

    * The studies say avoiding tropical deforestation could prevent up to 20 percent of carbon dioxide emissions.

    * New ice-core records confirm the importance of GHG for temperatures on earth, and show that carbon dioxide levels are higher now than they have been during the last 800,000 years.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...e-than-thought-before/articleshow/5406955.cms
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2010
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    CO2 is higher now than at any time in the last 15 million years.

    And CH4 is higher than it has been in that period by far, over 250% of what has been normal for tens of millions of years.

    Combine that with the industrial GHGs and the effective GHG is equivelant to over 450 ppm of CO2 right now.
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    http://econ-www.mit.edu/files/2309

    January 2008
    Job Market Paper
    Abstract
    This paper estimates the economic impact of climate change on Indian agriculture.
    I use a 40-year district-level panel data set covering over 200 Indian districts to es-
    timate the e¤ect of random year-to-year variation in weather on agricultural output.
    These panel estimates incorporate farmers’within-year adaptations to annual weather
    shocks. I argue that these estimates, derived from short-run weather e¤ects, are rele-
    vant for predicting the medium-run economic impact of climate change if farmers are
    constrained in their ability to recognize and adapt quickly to changing mean climate.
    The predicted medium-run impact is negative and statistically signi…cant: I …nd that
    projected climate change over the period 2010-2039 reduces major crop yields by 4.5
    to nine percent. The long-run (2070-2099) impact is dramatic, reducing yields by 25
    percent or more in the absence of long-run adaptation. These results suggest that cli-
    mate change is likely to impose signi…cant costs on the Indian economy unless farmers
    can quickly recognize and adapt to increasing temperatures. Such rapid adaptation
    may be less plausible in a developing country, where access to information and capital
    is limited.
    Keywords: climate change, India, agriculture, panel data
    JEL Classi…cation Codes: L25, Q12, Q51, Q54
     
  4. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    LOL

    Keep quoting debunked IPCC data like that will suddenly make it accurate
     
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  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Hotter, Faster: New Report Suggests Climate Change Could Happen Even Faster Than Previously Predicted |Triple Pundit

    And Schellnhuber hopes that will be enough because time is getting short. Global warming has often been sold as something nebulous that could bring ruination several generations into the future, but a new report prepared for the British government — and presented at the Oxford conference — is warning that most people alive today will see dangerous levels of warming. According to scientists at the Met Office in the UK, climate change will be a problem for our children — not our great-grandchildren — with a 4°C (7°F) rise temperatures expected by 2060 if humanity fails to cut emissions significantly. A temperature increase of this magnitude would likely threaten the water supply of half the world’s population, wipe out up to half of animal and plant species, and swamp low-lying coastal areas. Local impacts, in places like Africa and the Arctic, could be even more severe, leading to much greater temperature increases.
     
  6. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Frank, none of the sites uses the IPCC data other than illustrate how overly optimistic the projections were.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Mitchell Anderson | MIT Researchers Unveil Climate Roulette Wheel

    Scientists from MIT revealed the most comprehensive study so far on climate change and, as usual, the latest news is not good.

    Projected warming of the planet will be at least twice as bad as previously believed, and could kill billions this century unless there is "rapid and massive action" on reducing global carbon emissions.

    So freaked out are the researchers by these results, they resorted to using a roulette wheel to illustrate just how dangerous the do-nothing option is.

    The MIT scientists published the peer-reviewed results in the Journal of Climate showing a 90% probability of global temperature will rise as much as 7.4 degrees Celsius, more than twice the previous projection from 2003.


    "There is significantly more risk than we previously estimated," says study co-author Ronald Prinn of MIT. "There's no way the world can or should take these risks
     
  8. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    how can it be worse than originally thought when the consensus among all scientists is that gw will kill the planet and everything on it?
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Many important climate change scientists were wrong | Global Climate Change Information

    “The more we learn about the process [of climate change], the more severe the risk becomes,” says Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University. Oppenheimer and Schneider are among the co-authors of a paper just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences showing that the impacts of a 1-2°C rise in global mean temperature are much greater and pose greater environmental risks than previously anticipated.
     
  10. SFC Ollie
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    SFC Ollie Still Marching

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    Yet we are still having record cold.....

    I actually found one story where it snowed in parts of China for the first time ever.

    And my Niece saw snow in South Texas for the first time in her life last winter.

    These reports are everywhere.

    And so are the reports of the false numbers.

    So what are we to believe? 40 years ago we were heading into another Ice Age for the same reasons.

    We are invincible we will adapt to whatever comes at us.
     

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