Climate Change to Continue to Year 3000 in Best Case Scenarios, Research Predicts

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Matthew, Jan 11, 2011.

  1. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    (Jan. 10, 2011) — New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in Earth's atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.
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    The study, to be published in the Jan. 9 advanced online publication of the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions out to 1000 years from now. It is based on best-case, 'zero-emissions' scenarios constructed by a team of researchers from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (an Environment Canada research lab at the University of Victoria) and the University of Calgary.

    "We created 'what if' scenarios," says Dr. Shawn Marshall, Canada Research Chair in Climate Change and University of Calgary geography professor. "What if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere? How long would it then take to reverse current climate change trends and will things first become worse?" The research team explored zero-emissions scenarios beginning in 2010 and in 2100.

    The Northern Hemisphere fares better than the south in the computer simulations, with patterns of climate change reversing within the 1000-year timeframe in places like Canada. At the same time parts of North Africa experience desertification as land dries out by up to 30 percent, and ocean warming of up to 5°C off of Antarctica is likely to trigger widespread collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, a region the size of the Canadian prairies.

    Researchers hypothesize that one reason for the variability between the North and South is the slow movement of ocean water from the North Atlantic into the South Atlantic. "The global ocean and parts of the Southern Hemisphere have much more inertia, such that change occurs more slowly," says Marshall. "The inertia in intermediate and deep ocean currents driving into the Southern Atlantic means those oceans are only now beginning to warm as a result of CO2 emissions from the last century. The simulation showed that warming will continue rather than stop or reverse on the 1000-year time scale."

    Wind currents in the Southern Hemisphere may also have an impact. Marshall says that winds in the global south tend to strengthen and stay strong without reversing. "This increases the mixing in the ocean, bringing more heat from the atmosphere down and warming the ocean."

    Researchers will next begin to investigate more deeply the impact of atmosphere temperature on ocean temperature to help determine the rate at which West Antarctica could destabilize and how long it may take to fully collapse into the water.
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    The above story is reprinted (with editorial adaptations by ScienceDaily staff) from materials provided by University of Calgary, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.

    Journal Reference:

    1. Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Kirsten Zickfeld, Shawn J. Marshall & William J. Merryfield. Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions. Nature Geoscience, 09 January 2011 DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1047

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    University of Calgary (2011, January 10). Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios, research predicts. ScienceDaily. Retrieved January 12, 2011, from http://www.sciencedaily.com* /releases/2011/01/110109184025.htm

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    Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios, research predicts
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2011
  2. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    I am ashamed to be Canadian when that is the type of research that we produce. And I weep for science when such crystalball gazing is considered worthy of being published in a peer reviewed journal.
     
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  3. Skull Pilot
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    Skull Pilot Platinum Member

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    Climate change is always happening. Do you really expect the climate to reach a steady state?
     
  4. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Heck no...I expect that we could have natural cycles with temperature change...:cool:

    Best case scenario to these people is us fucking destroying the planets economy and eatting your own shit that is what I get from this paper.:eek: Me I think we should go to nuclear power and work with the best tech...
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2011
  5. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Matthew. Do you really believe this crap? I mean really? They haven't been able to get a CM to accurately recreate the weather that occured a week ago and you actually believe this crap?
     
  6. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    And yet, amazingly they are still unable to show a single repeatable laboratory experiment showing how 200PPM CO2 does any of this
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    That best case scenerio is hopelessly optimistic.
     
  8. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Have them recreate what we know happened in the past olfraud. Until they can do that all of their assertions are crap. It's really easy to predict impending doom 1000 years in the future, no one will be here to prove them wrong. The perfect con game. And you fall for it.
     
  9. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    all of the models are tuned to a specific time period. if you make them go bacwards or forwards they wildy diverge. without constant corrections they just dont work. if people knew how different the imputs for each model were, they would laugh at the insanity of thinking they were precise let alone accurate.
     
  10. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    The models have to be corrected every hour or within a day they all say the Earth is going to be the temperature of the sun.
     

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