China never had any allies

Discussion in 'Asia' started by Casper, Nov 17, 2010.

  1. Casper
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    Casper Member

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    Political analyst Vladislav Inozemtsev presents one of the most daring approaches on world’s triangle of power: Russia, USA and China:

    "Russia is unlikely to ever become a true ally for Beijing or Washington. Neither the United States nor China really wants an equal partnership with Russia. They would gladly accept Russia as a satellite; a resource supplier, no problem; a lower level geopolitical player, maybe.

    China poses as big a threat as we allow it to. There are no hordes of immigrants crossing over from China into Russia, or into Vietnam or India, for that matter. The Chinese are “infiltrating” other countries in a different way. They arrive and start businesses, something they always do tenaciously and professionally. Their working efficiency and dedication are legendary. Moreover, the nation itself must take full credit for that, as its success was not due to abundant mineral resources or a favorable market situation. It was their own success.

    For Russia, it is a question of whether or not we let them in; whether we encourage their business immigration or not. That is Russia’s problem.

    It would be wrong to believe that the Chinese are invading our lands and we cannot block them. If we do not want them to settle in Russia’s Far East, they won’t be able to. The problem is rooted in fake work permits, and visas obtained in return for bribes. I do not think China poses any real geopolitical danger to Russia. There is another danger, though: China’s economy is growing rapidly and the country is expanding its industrial niche on the international markets. This may with time limit Russia’s chances of growing into an industrial economy. China is gaining a firm foothold on the international markets, thus closing the markets to our products.

    Russia and China are rivals because, while Russia is mainly exporting resources now, it could and should manufacture industrial products from these resources. In my opinion, Russia’s next step along the modernization road should be transition from the resource-based economy to an industrial economy. Further steps would be a post-industrial economy, and then a research-intensive and innovation-based economy, some fifty years from now. This means Russia will claim the niche currently occupied by China, which will not give it up without a fight.

    In this sense, China is a barrier to Russia’s modernization, but not a threat – not a potential military aggressor or anything like that."

    The full version of this article was published on valdaiclub.com/content/china-never-had-any-allies
     
  2. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    I read, that Medvedev is planning to restructure the urban centers in Russia, meaning to disband whole smaller villages and amass them in about 20 urban centers mainly in the West of the country. That's actually a very good idea, it will help to curb the demograhic problems Russia is facing by bringing additional blood into the cities when we think of cities of big wedding-markets.
    It will also help concentrate the investments into the economy (education, infrastructure) rather then dispersing available budget over the whole territory to support some tiny villages somewhere in the snow.

    As for 'claiming' the economic niches (exports) of China like that guy in your post predicts, that's a very ambitious task for Russia. :eusa_angel:
     
  3. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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  4. Casper
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    No, there are mistakes in translation and in the understanding the background.

    The problem is that many small towns in Russia are artificial settlements created near large facilities. When Soviet era ended those faciclities stopped to pruduce and the population remained without work and income sources. This situation lasts tiil now and towns are tne centers of social unrest.
     

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