Catalans prepare to defy Madrid in banned independence vote

[BradVesp]

This is a bigger deal, I think.
It may seem stupid, but the Catalan leaders are working to get outside support. I imagine they have little military asides from some thousand farmers. Without outside help Madrid maybe able to force surrender.
Please note the Catalan region is adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea and so easily accessible if one can sail through the straight of Gibraltar. Gibraltar, too, is contentious; contiguous to Spain, but controlled and militarized by the U.K.

I think the issue here is similar to the one in the U.S. and maybe in the Ukraine, maybe in the U.K.. A small minority of Catalans are very prosperous. They produce enough for themselves and a surplus that is taken or given to Madrid where it is then distributed to poorer states and people. I imagine the Catalans think about themselves as hardworking and the people that get Madrid's distributions as lazy. It looks like a lot of waste to me both by effort and existence.

 

[Tommy Tainant]

BARCELONA (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of Catalans are expected to defy Spanish authorities and attempt to vote in a banned independence referendum on Sunday, raising fears of unrest in the wealthy northeastern region.

The referendum, declared illegal by Spain’s central government, has thrown the country into its worst constitutional crisis in decades and raised fears of street violence as a test of will between Madrid and Barcelona plays out.

In a sign of how the planned vote has polarized the country, thousands of pro-unity demonstrators gathered in Spain’s major cities, including Barcelona, to express their fierce opposition to Catalonia’s attempt to break away.
Catalans prepare to defy Madrid in banned independence vote

It ain't gonna happen.

So, what are the rules? I think international law allows all kinds of independence declarations. If the referendum happens to succeed, then will the new Catalan state be recognized internationally only upon Madrid's approvals? If yes, then I smell a civil war.

They won't be able to join the EU because it only takes one member state voting against any new state joining, and, of course, Spain will vote against it. So they will be a very tiny entity trying to make it on their own. They will not have UN support or any military support. It's just a very stupid idea and less than half of the residents there actually support succession.

There won't be civil war, but the Spanish government may need to delcare martial law there. It will remain Spanish. It's a very tiny region with no military or anything like that and no outside country is going to jump in and help them because they really have nothing to complain about.

In Catalonia's referendum votes, only 42-43% of registers voters turned out. Obviously most of the people have not taken this very seriously. Becoming an independant state is very serious; if it really comes down to a real vote, the majority of Catalonians do not want to separate from Spain. This is a movement by zealots.

Also, Catalonia owes the Spanish central government $62 billion in debt. Their need for independance is about economics, food, language, and football. Seriously: cuisine and football? They are not oppressed. Most of the people there probably don't even speak Catalonian anymore and don't want to.

I dont think that they would have a problem making friends post independence.As soon as the Catalans start talking to Putin about a Russian naval base you will find that the west will fall into line in terms of support.