Biden continues to add lots of jobs. May report "very healthy", economists say

[Harpy Eagle]

In a recession, all economic indicators do not all move together at the same time. We have leading economic indicators such as the stock market which is typically one of the first to go down and lagging indicators such as unemployment which is one last to go up. Unemployment is also one of the last to turn down in a recovery and the stock market is one of the first to turn up.

Yet in the past 3 recessions (not including the COVID one) job loss preceded the recession.

The Great Recession started Dec 2007, we had negative job growth by July of 2007
The recession before that started in March of 2001 and we we seeing months of negative job growth as early as June of 2000.
The recession before that started in July 1990, we saw negative job growth start that month and last a year.

 

[Flopper]

No.....seems you have a problem with English comprehension.

The story talks about lots of things including the fact that the name of the act is misleading.
It's really a big subsidy for green energy and climate change programs.
It's not only doesn't address inflation but it also causes more of it.
And it's also a Middle-Class tax increase even though Biden promised not to raise taxes on anyone making less than $400K/yr.


They only named it the Inflation Reduction Act to give idiots the idea that it reduces inflation.

The bill’s net impact on inflation, is likely modest, and may not be felt for a while. The 100 billion to 300 billion deficit reduction over tens years is anti-inflationary although it won't do much to stop the current inflation.

The administration knows quite well that the Fed is going keep reducing the money supply by raising interest rates and open market operations until consumer demand starts falling thus bringing down prices. I don't think the soft landing the Fed wants is going to happen. When demand, inflation, and consumer confidence is falling, I think we are going to have a pretty deep recession. This Inflation Reduction Act might provide the economic stimulus needed to reduce impact of the recession. In effect the act provides some long term inflation reduction and some economic stimulus over the next 12 to 24 months.

 

[Flopper]

Yet in the past 3 recessions (not including the COVID one) job loss preceded the recession.

The Great Recession started Dec 2007, we had negative job growth by July of 2007
The recession before that started in March of 2001 and we we seeing months of negative job growth as early as June of 2000.
The recession before that started in July 1990, we saw negative job growth start that month and last a year.

I'll take your word for it because I don't have the time to look up all this stuff. However, as general rule employment is the last thing to turn up in a recovery. This is why it's called a lagging indicator. In the early part of the recession, employment growth will slow and possible move down. Leading indicators such as stock market will turn down well before the the recession. Toward the end, inventory levels will usually be rising as well building permits, and also new startups will likely be rising due low interest rates. However, we would expect that employment would still be down waiting for business cofidence to return due to increase retail sales and even increases in the GDP. Most large employers want to be sure that the economy is improving before doing a lot of hiring.

Indicator are just that indications of economic status. They never totally agree. The Confidence Board creates a confidence index based on the indicators. You often see things like 7 out 10 indicators in the confidence index points to a recession or recovery.