Bellwether county has called it already - it's Trump (and they've only been wrong TWICE since 1888)

[Vigilante]

Ah, them Hoosiers are DAMN SMART!!!

Daily Mail (UK) ^ | December 4, 2015 | J Taylor Rushing
It spans only 403 square miles and boasts no skyscrapers to speak of, but one rural Indiana county appears to be supporting Republican billionaire Donald Trump for president - with potentially nationwide implications. Vigo County, Indiana, located on the western edge of the state and home to 108,000 Hoosiers including 40,000 active voters, was spotlighted Friday in a cover story of the Washington-based political magazine Politico. Why? Because the county has been an accurate bellwether of every U.S. presidential election since 1888, with only two exceptions. And this year, the county with the nickname 'the crossroads of America' seems to...

 

[PaintMyHouse]

God help us, literally, the Nazis are making a try for power, again.

 

[Toro]

^^^^
True quote.

 

[candycorn]

This may help:

77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Updated University Of Colorado Election Model: Romney 330 - Obama 208 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[candycorn]

How'd it go?

 

[Toro]

This may help:

77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to famous U of Colorado study | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Updated University Of Colorado Election Model: Romney 330 - Obama 208 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Well, duh! Romney won!

 

[Vigilante]

• Donald Trump Forges New Blue-Collar Coalition Among Republicans
  wsj.com ^ | Aaron Zitner and Dante Chinni
  Often, a leading candidate dominates one of the Republican Party's subgroups, such as social conservatives or budget hawks. But Mr. Trump is seen as an acceptable choice among many types of Republicans. "He's cutting across" many Republican segments, said GOP strategist David Winston. The main quality that unites his supporters is "attitudinal," said Mr. Winston, who advises the House and Senate leadership. Like a majority of Americans, Trump supporters think the nation has gone off track, but they are among the most frustrated that politicians are unable to find a solution. "It's opened up an avenue for people who want...

 

[PaintMyHouse]

• Donald Trump Forges New Blue-Collar Coalition Among Republicans
  wsj.com ^ | Aaron Zitner and Dante Chinni
  Often, a leading candidate dominates one of the Republican Party's subgroups, such as social conservatives or budget hawks. But Mr. Trump is seen as an acceptable choice among many types of Republicans. "He's cutting across" many Republican segments, said GOP strategist David Winston. The main quality that unites his supporters is "attitudinal," said Mr. Winston, who advises the House and Senate leadership. Like a majority of Americans, Trump supporters think the nation has gone off track, but they are among the most frustrated that politicians are unable to find a solution. "It's opened up an avenue for people who want...

Stupid pitchforks, AKA Hitler Yourhs.

 

[Toro]

The campaign may seem old, but we are still in the casual attention stage. Every four years pollsters ask Iowa and New Hampshire voters when they made up their minds. Roughly 70 or 80 percent make up their minds in the final month of the race. Up until then they are busy with life and work and just glancing at the campaign. If you ask them which candidate they support, that question may generate an answer, but that doesn’t mean they are actually committed to electing the name they happen to utter.

Over at the FiveThirtyEight blog, Nate Silver looked at campaign-related Google searches in past years in the weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Until a week or two before the caucuses very few people are doing any serious investigations of the candidates. Then just before and after the caucuses voters get engaged and Google searches surge.

Silver produced a chart showing what this year’s polling would look like if we actually took the current levels of casual attention and uncertainty seriously. In that chart “Undecided” had 80 percent support. Trump had 5 percent support; Carson, 4; Cruz, 3; and Rubio, 2.

That’s about the best description of where the Republican race is right now. ...

When campaigns enter that final month, voters tend to gravitate toward the person who seems most orderly. As the primary season advances, voters’ tolerance for risk declines. They focus on the potential downsides of each contender and wonder, Could this person make things even worse?

When this mental shift happens, I suspect Trump will slide. All the traits that seem charming will suddenly seem risky. The voters’ hopes for transformation will give way to a fear of chaos. When the polls shift from registered voters to likely voters, cautious party loyalists will make up a greater share of those counted.

The voting booth focuses the mind. The experience is no longer about self-expression and feeling good in the moment. It’s about the finger on the nuclear trigger for the next four years. In an era of high anxiety, I doubt Republican voters will take a flyer on their party’s future — or their country’s future.​

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/opinion/no-donald-trump-wont-win.html

 

[Toro]

The argument about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination has gone something like this:

Us: Trump is very unlikely to win the nomination.

Them: He’s likely to win. Just look at the polls.

Us: Those polls don’t mean much. They haven’t been predictive in the past.

Them: But so many people are paying attention to the campaign this year, the polls may be more meaningful.

...

The hypothesis is possible, but there’s no evidence to support it. In fact, historically there has been no relationship between how predictive the polls were at this point and how many people said they were paying attention to the campaign in the fall before primary voting.​

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

 

[candycorn]

The argument about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination has gone something like this:

Us: Trump is very unlikely to win the nomination.

Them: He’s likely to win. Just look at the polls.

Us: Those polls don’t mean much. They haven’t been predictive in the past.

Them: But so many people are paying attention to the campaign this year, the polls may be more meaningful.

...

The hypothesis is possible, but there’s no evidence to support it. In fact, historically there has been no relationship between how predictive the polls were at this point and how many people said they were paying attention to the campaign in the fall before primary voting.​

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

If you get a chance, check out Robert Reich's twitter posts about Trump and his conversation with a "former GOP Senator" (likely Al Simpson). Very telling.

 

[Toro]

In fairness, even though I think he's a horrible candidate, Trump has to be taken very seriously. He could win the nomination.

 

[jillian]

In fairness, even though I think he's a horrible candidate, Trump has to be taken very seriously. He could win the nomination.

the problem is what normal people think makes someone a terrible candidate makes that person a great candidate to "the base". now if normal republicans go out and vote in primaries, then the result will be reflective of that, imo. if not, the nominee will be trump... talking about making mexico build a wall and saying it's ok to rough up protesters.

 

[waltky]

Granny wantin' to know...

... Is that anywhere near Terre Haute?...

... mostly dey raise cows an' grow corn there...

... mebbe it's sumpin' inna water.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

God help us, literally, the Nazis are making a try for power, again.

Nazi is leftist ideology having nothing to do with conservatism as proven by your affinity for them by the avatar photo of someone playing a Nazi in a movie.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

In fairness, even though I think he's a horrible candidate, Trump has to be taken very seriously. He could win the nomination.

Trump tore it up in our livestock judging barn yesterday at the Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport Iowa, packing the facility in record numbers. Yes, take him seriously; he's speaking the people's language.

Btw, why does Hilary have to take 4-5 days off after her campaign appearances? Seems she doesn't have the stamina for this.

 

[jillian]

God help us, literally, the Nazis are making a try for power, again.

Nazi is leftist ideology having nothing to do with conservatism as proven by your affinity for them by the avatar photo of someone playing a Nazi in a movie.

actually, naziism is a rightwing fascist ideology

it's really important to use words as they are defined and not make up things like calling anything you don't like "leftist" or "liberal". it sounds ridiculous.

 

[pwjohn]

Pointless bs based on "polling?". lol

 

[westwall]

God help us, literally, the Nazis are making a try for power, again.

You should know. Your NAZI support is well known.

 

[Delta4Embassy]

Shouldn't be making predictions or saying anything's in the can. When that gets going people figure they don't need to stand in the rain for 6 hours to vote.

Nothing's certain.