BBC: What Happened to Global Warming

Discussion in 'Environment' started by mal, Oct 10, 2009.

  1. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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  2. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    Difficult to Argue with what's in that BBC Article...

    So when it starts Cooling, is Global Warming going get the Blame, or be Shelved in Place of a New Way to Punish this Country?...

    And will be Welcome Leaded Gas back?...

    :)

    peace...
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    But, of course, the real facts are irrelevant, right? Well, here they are;

    September 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.42 deg. C « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.

    YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
    2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
    2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
    2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
    2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
    2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
    2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
    2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
    2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
    2009 9 +0.424 +0.554 +0.295 +0.516
     
  4. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    "The Facts" from a Blog that has the Earth Wrapped in "Global Warming" as it's Homepage Graphic...

    :)

    peace...
     
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  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Earth has a fever and Libruls are the rectal thermometer who provides us constant updates on her condition
     
  6. Si modo
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    Si modo Diamond Member

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    What happened to global warming?

    Obama won and the fear-mongering is no longer needed.

    Perhaps the science will finally be allowed to stand on its own without politically-motivated interpretations.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2009
  7. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    Yes they are irrelevant, considering 200 years of recorded temperatures or average temperatures is not a large enough sample out of the population of 4.3 billion years the Earth has been in existence. But you eco-terrorists will continue with your fear mongering.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Dr. Spencer is a global warming sceptic. But he does not deny facts.


    Roy Spencer, Ph. D.
    The Search for a Short Term Marker of Long Term Climate Sensitivity
    October 4th, 2009
    [This is an update on research progress we have made into determining just how sensitive the climate system is to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.]

    While published studies are beginning to suggest that net feedbacks in the climate system could be negative for year-to-year variations (e.g., our 2007 paper, and the new study by Lindzen and Choi, 2009), there remains the question of whether the same can be said of long-term climate sensitivity (and therefore, of the strength of future global warming).

    Even if we find observational evidence of an insensitive climate system for year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system, it could be that the system’s long term response to more carbon dioxide is very sensitive. I’m not saying I believe that is the case – I don’t – but it is possible. This question of a potentially large difference in short-term and long-term responses of the climate system has been bothering me for many months.

    Significantly, as far as I know, the climate modelers have not yet demonstrated that there is any short-term behavior in their models which is also a good predictor of how much global warming those models project for our future. It needs to be something we can measure, something we can test with real observations. Just because all of the models behave more-or-less like the real climate system does not mean the range of warming they produce encompasses the truth.
     
  9. Sinatra
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    Sinatra Senior Member

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    From the BBC article - including the GREAT information from Don Easterbrook - a longtime friend.

    Don has been at the forefront of the global climate common sense movement, and it is very nice to see his sense on this issue becoming more and more common.

    ___

    What happened to global warming?

    By Paul Hudson
    Climate correspondent, BBC News

    This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

    But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

    And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

    So what on Earth is going on?

    Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

    They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

    During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.


    Recent research has ruled out solar influences on temperature increases
    Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.

    But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

    The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

    And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

    He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

    He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

    If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

    Ocean cycles

    What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.


    In the last few years [the Pacific Ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down

    According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated. (Rock on Don!!!!!)

    The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

    For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

    But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

    These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

    So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.


    Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."

    So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

    They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

    But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

    The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

    In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.

    In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

    What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

    To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

    Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.

    But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

    So what can we expect in the next few years?

    Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

    It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

    Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.

    One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.


    BBC NEWS | Science & Environment | What happened to global warming?

    ___

    And here is Don's website for those who are interested to review...


    Don J. Easterbrook, Professor, WWU: Home Page
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    In a preliminary report, released today on behalf of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the global mean temperature for 2008 is 14.3 °C, making it the tenth warmest year on a record that dates back to 1850.

    Climate scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at University of East Anglia maintain the global climate record for the WMO. They say this figure is slightly down on earlier years this century partly because of the La Niña that developed in the Pacific Ocean during 2007.

    La Niña events typically coincide with cooler global temperatures, and 2008 is slightly cooler than the norm under current climate conditions. Professor Phil Jones at the CRU said: "The most important component of year-to-year variability in global average temperatures is the phase and amplitude of equatorial sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that lead to La Niña and El Niño events".

    The ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1997. Global temperatures for 2000-2008 now stand almost 0.2 °C warmer than the average for the decade 1990–1999
    Met Office: 2008 global temperature
     

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