New Little Ice Age

Discussion in 'Environment' started by FactFinder, Oct 8, 2009.

  1. FactFinder
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    FactFinder VIP Member

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    This is interesting reading for those of us who believe the sun rather than man decides the climate.

    LANDSCHEIDT - New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

    Abstract:

    Analysis of the sun's varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun's oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun's orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Niños years before the respective event.

    1. Introduction

    The continuing debate about man-made global warming has reached a crucial stage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), no longer publishes well defined “best estimate projections” of global temperature rise to the year 2100 caused by increases in greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere, but publicizes “storylines” to speculate about warming as high as 5.8° C till 2100. The editors of the journal Science (2002), however, comment on the increasing number of publications that point to varying solar activity as a strong factor in climate change: “As more and more wiggles matching the waxing and waning of the sun show up in records of past climate, researchers are grudgingly taking the sun seriously as a factor in climate change. They have included solar variability in their simulations of the past century's warming. And the sun seems to have played a pivotal role in triggering droughts and cold snaps.”
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    The sun has always been taken as serious factor in climate. However, if we are having the beginning of a Maunder Minimum, then why are we still having years in the top ten for warmth? Could it be that the increase in GHGs is actually overpowering the effect of a lessoned TSI? One might also consider that the present effects from the GHGs in the atmosphere reflect the amount of GHGs in the atmosphere 50 years ago, due to the inertia in the climate system.

    What we are looking at is a change, at present, from a high of 1367+ Wm squared, to 1366 Wm squared. That is hardly enough to seriously impact the present climate. In fact, the strong La Nina of 2007-2008 impacted the weather far more. And we still have most of the years since 1998 in the top ten for warmth.

    welcome to pmodwrc
     
  3. Big Black Dog
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    Big Black Dog Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Hot today, cold tomorrow... Can't the environmental wackos decide which it's going to be? I'm tired of changing my clothes so often.:lol:
     
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  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    One of the primary predictions of global warming is that the weather swings will be wider and wilder, with an overall warming. Now, Dog, perhaps were you to investigate the issue, rather than just engaging in mindless name calling, you might have something intelligent to say.
     
  5. elvis
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    elvis BANNED Supporting Member

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    yeah not that you've ever called anyone names on here, fuckstain.
     
  6. FactFinder
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    We are not "still having years in the top ten". Those days are behind us Rocks. They will, in the AGW followers minds, become their golden age/good ole days.

    http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/09/leading-uk-climate-scientists-must-explain-or-resign/

    Mr McIntyre’s analysis of the data – which he had been asking for since 2003 – suggests that scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the Hadley Centre associated with the UK Met. Office have been using only a small subset of the available data to make their claims that recent years have been the hottest of the last millennium. When the entire data set is used, Mr McIntyre claims that the hockey stick shape disappears completely. [1]
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2009
  7. FactFinder
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    It just keeps getting worse for those promoting Al Gore's carbon credits company.

    Treemometers: A new scientific scandal

    From this we know that the Yamal data set uses just 12 trees from a larger set to produce its dramatic recent trend. Yet many more were cored, and a larger data set (of 34) from the vicinity shows no dramatic recent warming, and warmer temperatures in the middle ages.

    In all there are 252 cores in the CRU Yamal data set, of which ten were alive 1990. All 12 cores selected show strong growth since the mid-19th century. The implication is clear: the dozen were cherry-picked.

    Treemometers: A new scientific scandal • The Register
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2009
  8. Old Rocks
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    Factfinder, the post concerning the temps for this year was from Roy Spencer. He has been one of the critics of global warming data. Yet he states that the past three months have shown a very strong upturn tempertures on the global scale.
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Biography
    McIntyre is, according to the Wall Street Journal, a "semiretired Toronto minerals consultant" who has spent "two years and about $5,000 of his own money trying to double-check the influential graphic" known as the "hockey stick" that illustrates a reconstruction of average surface temperatures in the Northern hemisphere, created by University of Virginia climatologist Michael Mann. He does not have an advanced degree and has published two articles in the journal Energy and Environment, which has become a venue for skeptics and is not carried in the ISI listing of peer-reviewed journals.[3]

    McIntyre was also exposed for having unreported ties to CGX Energy, Inc., an oil and gas exploration company, which listed McIntyre as a "strategic advisor." [4] He is the former President of Dumont Nickel Inc., and was President of Northwest Exploration Company Limited, the predecessor company to CGX Energy Inc. As of 2003, he was the strategic advisor of CGX Energy Inc. He has also been a policy analyst at both the governments of Ontario and of Canada. [5]

    At the 2007 Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, McIntyre gave a joint presentation on hurricanes and climate change with Roger Pielke Jr.[6]

    [edit]The Hockey Stick Study Controversy
    Stephen McIntyre is especially known for his critique of Michael E. Mann's hockey stick study, a "reconstruction of temperatures over the past 1,000 years based on records captured in tree rings, corals and other markers," which shows temperatures swinging sharply upward in the 20th century.[7] Articles written by McIntyre, along with colleague Ross McKitrick, critical of Mann's hockey stick study led to congressional inquiry into the scientific methods of the studies. Independent research has found that McIntyre's critique may have "limited significance." Researchers at the GKSS Research Center in Geesthacht, Germany, confirmed "a glitch" in Dr. Mann's work but "found this glitch to be of very minor significance."[8]

    In recent years, McIntyre has extended his criticisms to also address the "spaghetti chart"; McIntyre argues that all the new reconstructions which confirmed Mann's earlier results shared some common proxies and that minor changes/updates with regard to proxy selection completely changed the results, again casting doubt on the conclusion that modern-era temperatures are unusual.[1]

    [edit]Contact details

    Steve McIntyre - SourceWatch
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    There is far more than 252 cores available for study. There are cores world wide, and many go back past 10,000 years ago.

    The ULTIMATE tree-ring pages!
     

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