Discussion in 'Congress' started by The Paperboy, Oct 21, 2008.
Battleground is biased to the Republicans. It's a known fact.
Not anymore they aren't. This poll is likely just an outlier. Although the polls are definitely tightening up, and Obamas lead will shrink in the next 2 weeks.
Trend is your friend, David.
The only reason why Obama's lead will shrink in two weeks is because the polls are excluding people who have already voted. Early voting began in dozens of states yesterday. Obama has been asking his supporters to vote now and vote early.
John McCain hasn't been doing that. In fact, there's talk of the last 72 hours of his campaign pulling a major stunt.
I dont think any poll that excludes early voters is going to be accurate from here on out.
The polls will shrink because the undecideds are going to break for McCain more than Obama I would guess. Why? Because there are a large number of undecideds who really don't like Obama, but don't really like McCain much either. In the end, they will come home to McCain.
That, and polls pretty much always shrink in the weeks right before an election.
The polls will get tighter as the election draws near because the pollsters care more about accuracy. Instead of trying to shape public opinion with polls, pollsters will actually try to predict the election for a change. Each one wants to be able to say they got it right in 2008. Happens every election.
From "The Big Chill":
Michael: I don't know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalizations. They're more important than sex.
Sam: Ah, come on. Nothing's more important than sex.
Michael: Oh yeah? Ever gone a week without a rationalization?
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