AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

[elvis]

Obama has a huge lead.

Obama has twice as much money and twice as many boots on the ground as McCain.

Plus the governors of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado are all Democrats.

It's over.

not over yet. sorry. obama has the advantage, yes. but it's not over. it will continue to tighten.

 

[DavidS]

yeah, that map has most of the swing states in a statistical tie. colorado and virginia have obama ahead by five and seven respectively. this isn't over.

Oh? It isn't?

If I gave every state that was barely dem or barely rep to McCain, here's what the outcome would be:

Political Dashboard - 2008 Presidential Election on Yahoo! News

Obama: 295
McCain: 243

 

[DavidS]

not over yet. sorry. obama has the advantage, yes. but it's not over. it will continue to tighten.

What are you smoking? This race hasn't tightened. There are only TWO polls that show tightening. Every single other poll shows Obama has widened his lead. The TWO polls that show the race tightening are using data from the day after the debate! Come on, Elvis!

 

[Caligirl]

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


Liberals just sh!t their pants.... Can you imagine the riots that are going to ensue from the people who preach tolerance if Obama loses?

Ummm, similar to 2000 and 2004, as in not much rioting?

 

[jreeves]

What are you smoking? This race hasn't tightened. There are only TWO polls that show tightening. Every single other poll shows Obama has widened his lead. The TWO polls that show the race tightening are using data from the day after the debate! Come on, Elvis!

Could it be that polls period are highly unreliable? The only poll that matters is on November 4th.

 

[Caligirl]

As if we are supposed to tolerate a 3rd stolen election.

Ummmm, pretty sure not much will happen if it is stolen.

 

[elvis]

What are you smoking? This race hasn't tightened. There are only TWO polls that show tightening. Every single other poll shows Obama has widened his lead. The TWO polls that show the race tightening are using data from the day after the debate! Come on, Elvis!

the only polls you trust are the ones that say obama has a double digit lead.

 

[elvis]

What are you smoking? This race hasn't tightened. There are only TWO polls that show tightening. Every single other poll shows Obama has widened his lead. The TWO polls that show the race tightening are using data from the day after the debate! Come on, Elvis!

you mean like in new hampshire when obama was supposed to beat hillary by 10 points?

 

[CornbreadOracle]

Polls, schmolls.

I am sick and tired of them. They are useless.

 

[elvis]

As if we are supposed to tolerate a 3rd stolen election.

as opposed to what? overthrowing the government? if we don't tolerate it, what do we do instead?

 

[Caligirl]

Hey I can pick and choose too but here are all of the current polls, and a graph of recent history:

The palin bump was pretty significant and since declining from that not much has seemed to be much help for McCain.

The repubs know that their best hope is suppressing turnout, so the memo and the fox polls showing Obama up to turn out the repub base.

 

[jreeves]

Polls, schmolls.

I am sick and tired of them. They are useless.

A lot of times polls are used by both sides to suppress or incite voter turnout. If you want to know how people will vote, wait until Nov. 4th

 

[CornbreadOracle]

A lot of times polls are used by both sides to suppress or incite voter turnout. If you want to know how people will vote, wait until Nov. 4th

Exactly. Polls don't come close to being reliable until about 3 days before major elections because they all want to be remembered for getting it right. It's the only time they actually bother with accuracy. So all this analysis of polls right now means zilch. But it sure is fun! woowee.

 

[DavidS]

Could it be that polls period are highly unreliable?

No, it couldn't be.

Everyone wants to bring up Dewey Defeats Truman. That was the Gallup poll. 60 years ago. And the newspaper published that 5 days before the election and the day before the election, Gallup had it right the Truman defeated Dewey. The newspaper ignored it.

[QUOTE} The only poll that matters is on November 4th.[/QUOTE]

Polls matter after the conventions and during the debates. After the debates, the polls don't change. People have made up their mind. It's over. McCain cannot win enough states to win.

Best case scenario is this for McCain:

Political Dashboard - 2008 Presidential Election on Yahoo! News

 

[DavidS]

the only polls you trust are the ones that say obama has a double digit lead.

Not true at all. I trust Rasmussen 100%. Obama is up by 6. I trust Gallup. Obama is up by 8. I trust TIPP, Obama is up by 4. I trust Ipsos/McClatchy. Obams is up by 8. I trust Pew. Obama is up by 14.

Researching this AP poll further, they don't define at all how likely a voter is and they heavily sampled evangelicals... this poll is garbage.

I don't look at ABC, FOX or NBC polls. Network polls don't make sense to me.

 

[DavidS]

Polls, schmolls.

I am sick and tired of them. They are useless.

You wouldn't be if they were red.

 

[elvis]

Not true at all. I trust Rasmussen 100%. Obama is up by 6. I trust Gallup. Obama is up by 8. I trust TIPP, Obama is up by 4. I trust Ipsos/McClatchy. Obams is up by 8. I trust Pew. Obama is up by 14.

Researching this AP poll further, they don't define at all how likely a voter is and they heavily sampled evangelicals... this poll is garbage.

I don't look at ABC, FOX or NBC polls. Network polls don't make sense to me.

so what's wrong with GWU? which ones of these polls that you DO trust is accurate? my guess is PEW, considering that was the one you foaming at the mouth over last night. The TIPP poll is awfully close for you to be saying it's "OVER".
there was another chart on here tonight that said most of the swing states were statistical ties.

 

[DavidS]

so what's wrong with GWU? which ones of these polls that you DO trust is accurate? my guess is PEW, considering that was the one you foaming at the mouth over last night. The TIPP poll is awfully close for you to be saying it's "OVER".
there was another chart on here tonight that said most of the swing states were statistical ties.

GWU is also taking polls from a week ago and presenting the numbers today. GWU and AP are the only polls doing that. Most daily tracking polls are over a 3 day margin. Not a 7-day margin. The news cycle is too fast to do a 7-day turnaround. Pew's poll is a 7-day turnaround and had a completely different number. I don't know why... I think 14 points is too extreme. This is a 6 point race right now, I think.

Statistical ties are 3 points either way.

Those states include Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Missouri.

I'd take Indiana out of tie and put it in Lean McCain. I'd also give West Virginia to McCain.

Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are for Obama. That's enough to help Obama win the election. This is over.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

 

[Missourian]

Colorado, Virginia and Missouri will decide this election.

If McCain pulls out the hat trick...he'll be the next President.

If Obama takes any one, it's over.

 

[DavidS]

Colorado, Virginia and Missouri will decide this election.

If McCain pulls out the hat trick...he'll be the next President.

Uh.... that is incorrect.

Political Dashboard - 2008 Presidential Election on Yahoo! News