Any idea how Much This April 15th will Affect the Market?

[william the wie]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

 

[Cellblock2429]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

/----/ Folks depending on a tax refund to make investments in the market - aren't ever going to invest that way. Maybe they would buy bank CDs paying 2.5% but not the stock market. My goal is to either owe taxes or zero out with the proper deductions.

 

[william the wie]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

/----/ Folks depending on a tax refund to make investments in the market - aren't ever going to invest that way. Maybe they would buy bank CDs paying 2.5% but not the stock market. My goal is to either owe taxes or zero out with the proper deductions.

That position while logical ignores several things:

We have a reality TV star as president

The leader of the opposition was reported in a thread on this board wishing Happy Thanksgiving on Valentine's day just past with links.

Given that NYC Ds blew a gimme with Amazon I can buy the proposition that Nancy is the best and brightest among Ds and that is how she became the party's highest ranking pol.

What you concluded assumes that the majority of Americans have a right mind to be in and are in it. I find that last assumption dubious.

 

[Mac1958]

None

 

[Pavel Svinchnik]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

I have no facts on this but I really doubt that there will be a lot of investment of tax refunds, other than savings accounts and paying off credit card debt. Most people who are serious investors plan their taxes so that refunds are minimal. We're getting a few dollars back this year, which we're putting into my wife's savings account, which will hopefully reduce her need to make taxable withdrawals from her 401k.

 

[Shrimpbox]

How much extra money is going to go into govt coffers. That is what I will be interested in.

 

[william the wie]

How much extra money is going to go into govt coffers. That is what I will be interested in.

Well the blue/purple states are going to see a large number of people head for lower SALT states. Net after tax income will be a thing of the past for many people and therefor large numbers of people will head to the states with the lowest SALT. The capital markets will send the people who handle the back office to lower SALT states and that will be a big mess for state and local tax collectors. The tax increases to cover the short fall will not work as expected.

 

[Shrimpbox]

You predicted that and it is happening, kudos to you. To be more specific, I want to know what the federal govt tax receipts are going to be. They should be way up because of a booming economy and the points you have brought to light, which would help me feel less concerned about the deficit. But William, I have had it with amazon and the big companies not paying any taxes and I am ready for some kind of minimum mandatory for companies over Say 500,000 million dollars. Everyone from the poorest to the richest should pay something.

 

[william the wie]

You predicted that and it is happening, kudos to you. To be more specific, I want to know what the federal govt tax receipts are going to be. They should be way up because of a booming economy and the points you have brought to light, which would help me feel less concerned about the deficit. But William, I have had it with amazon and the big companies not paying any taxes and I am ready for some kind of minimum mandatory for companies over Say 500,000 million dollars. Everyone from the poorest to the richest should pay something.

When it comes to the various fads and bubbles of the low to no dividend stocks I have no idea how much of that half trillion market value is hype and how much is real and there is a long list of billionaire investors who have been burned believing the hype put out about the low level of hype. Take Amazon, on all but Amazon exclusive books, I can wait and get hard copy for 5% less. delivered to my door. That reduces Amazon revenues and its core ebook programing is getting old so a price war is on the horizon.

Walmart has more dependable pricing than Amazon because it has better logistics. It is also catching up on automation. Ebay is also a strong competitor.

The federal revenues are hard to predict because the IRS budget has been cut back to 1950s levels. If Trump wins in 2020 with a majority in congressional chambers giving a higher budget to the IRS and the Federal Election Commission things could really tough for the Ds.

 

[Picaro]

I think car sales will be the most affected, since those with big refunds tend to make down payments on cars around tax refund time. Don't know that the stock market will see much effect, since the spending is now more spread out over the months instead of in one big lump sum. Most people I know now claim more dependents and would rather pay than have too much withholding these days. Re cars, the fact that they now have 7 year notes should tell you the real problem, low pay relative to labor value. and morons who believe raising minimum wage to reflect real inflation is going to crash the economy n stuff. If that would crash the economy then you don't have much of a real economy and it needs to crash, so get on with it.

Tax revenues from the tariffs are growing, so what are the numbers on those currently? WE need more tariffs to make up for the lost payroll taxes from much lower wages and chronic unemployment anyway.

 

[Picaro]

You predicted that and it is happening, kudos to you. To be more specific, I want to know what the federal govt tax receipts are going to be. They should be way up because of a booming economy and the points you have brought to light, which would help me feel less concerned about the deficit. But William, I have had it with amazon and the big companies not paying any taxes and I am ready for some kind of minimum mandatory for companies over Say 500,000 million dollars. Everyone from the poorest to the richest should pay something.

When it comes to the various fads and bubbles of the low to no dividend stocks I have no idea how much of that half trillion market value is hype and how much is real and there is a long list of billionaire investors who have been burned believing the hype put out about the low level of hype. Take Amazon, on all but Amazon exclusive books, I can wait and get hard copy for 5% less. delivered to my door. That reduces Amazon revenues and its core ebook programing is getting old so a price war is on the horizon.

Walmart has more dependable pricing than Amazon because it has better logistics. It is also catching up on automation. Ebay is also a strong competitor.

The federal revenues are hard to predict because the IRS budget has been cut back to 1950s levels. If Trump wins in 2020 with a majority in congressional chambers giving a higher budget to the IRS and the Federal Election Commission things could really tough for the Ds.

I agree with you on Walmart. As bad as they are, they're still better than Amazon as an employer. Amazon opened one of its sweatshops here recently, and as expected most people there make shit wages, many sleep in their cars there. It's amazing how many idiots run around babbling about the 'high wages' these shops pay, as if they're the kind of companies your city would want to attract or something, which is just a lie.

 

[william the wie]

Amazon is also losing suppliers because they don't brand the supplier's shipping box

 

[william the wie]

The really big problem with making a call is that houses are the major wealth builder and therefore has the greatest wealth effects up or down. So, when the flight from high SALT states with poor affordability ratings head out of state gets going financial collapse becomes highly probable.

 

[Shrimpbox]

What you are not addressing for me is federal govt tax receipts. Corporations repatriating money were still taxed something, tariffs have been implemented, growth means more tax receipts, higher wages mean more tax receipts, less refunds mean more tax receipts. Government take should be more than last year.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

the only ones that will suffer is crack dealers and liquor store owners, who are you kidding? only idiots think that the government holding on to your money interest free is a good thing.



are you an idiot william?

.

 

[Picaro]

What you are not addressing for me is federal govt tax receipts. Corporations repatriating money were still taxed something, tariffs have been implemented, growth means more tax receipts, higher wages mean more tax receipts, less refunds mean more tax receipts. Government take should be more than last year.

Few agencies are going to report accurately, since most of them are run by 'globalist' flunkies; they instead whine about 'the trade war' and make up numbers that make it look like we're going to lose our shirts or something, when that is clearly not the case. They will snivel about 'soybean exports', for instance, never mind the fact they're subsidized anyway, and the fact we don't need to be stripping off our topsoil just to feed a Communist country who is robbing us blind, still a police state, and will attack us at the first opportunity thy think they can get away with it. It's artificial demand, not real demand.

Only morons feed their enemies and give away technology to them just to please a few CEOs and shareholders. Some shortfall are only temporary, since it takes a while to build up capital equipment and the like; our steel industry has expanded its capital spending across the board, but to hear the Trump haters on Wall Street 'we're losing money n stuff!', which of course is merely rubbish.

 

[william the wie]

Refunds for the first time in decades will be greatly reduced and effectively non-existent in most states. This should cause increasing volatility as more people make investment decisions based on their new tax expectations, what's your guess about the subject?

the only ones that will suffer is crack dealers and liquor store owners, who are you kidding? only idiots think that the government holding on to your money interest free is a good thing.



are you an idiot william?

.

You are illiterate as shown by your post. Reading is fundamental, learn how. Observation and commenting on behavior is not advocacy. Now run along and get your GED.