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Polling Matters
November 20, 2019
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
by Frank Newport
President Donald Trump recently convened a "Black Voices for Trump" conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: "We're going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We've done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than 30 years." And, according to The New York Times reporting, Trump added that "the Democrat Party already left you a long time ago … if you don't want liberal extremists to run your lives, then today we say welcome to the Republican Party."
This theme echoes a message Trump delivered to black Americans during his first presidential campaign in the summer of 2016, when he declared: "At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce."
A prediction that Trump will gain 95% of the black vote is hyperbole, of course, but Trump clearly thinks he should be improving on the 8% vote among blacks he received three years ago. Based on what we see so far in terms of black ratings of the job Trump is doing as president, currently at 10%, I don't see a high probability of that happening.
For one thing, there has been remarkably little variation in Trump's job approval ratings among any group. As my colleague Jeffrey Jones recently noted, "Perhaps the most notable aspect of Trump's quarterly average approval ratings is their stability," with less than six percentage points separating Trump's highest and lowest quarterly averages so far in his term in office. More remarkably, Trump's calendar-year averages in 2017, 2018 and through this month in 2019 have varied by only one point, coming in at 40%, 41% and 41%, respectively.
The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019. In short, Trump's approval rating among blacks has essentially not changed over time, despite blacks presumably having had plenty of time to observe the economic gains that Trump touts as the reason why they should be moving into his camp.
Approval ratings for an incumbent president have a significant relationship to actual election outcomes. I think it is fair to say that Trump's progress toward a substantially higher share of the black vote than he got in 2016 is in severe doubt if he maintains a 10% black approval rating. Notably, the last Republican president before Trump, George W. Bush, had a 14% approval rating among blacks in 2004 as he was seeking re-election. Bush received 11% of the black vote that November.
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
Gallup has more data and insights on the attitudes and behaviors of employees, customers, students and citizens than any other organization in the world.
We will not be voting for trump.
November 20, 2019
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
by Frank Newport
President Donald Trump recently convened a "Black Voices for Trump" conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: "We're going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We've done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than 30 years." And, according to The New York Times reporting, Trump added that "the Democrat Party already left you a long time ago … if you don't want liberal extremists to run your lives, then today we say welcome to the Republican Party."
This theme echoes a message Trump delivered to black Americans during his first presidential campaign in the summer of 2016, when he declared: "At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce."
A prediction that Trump will gain 95% of the black vote is hyperbole, of course, but Trump clearly thinks he should be improving on the 8% vote among blacks he received three years ago. Based on what we see so far in terms of black ratings of the job Trump is doing as president, currently at 10%, I don't see a high probability of that happening.
For one thing, there has been remarkably little variation in Trump's job approval ratings among any group. As my colleague Jeffrey Jones recently noted, "Perhaps the most notable aspect of Trump's quarterly average approval ratings is their stability," with less than six percentage points separating Trump's highest and lowest quarterly averages so far in his term in office. More remarkably, Trump's calendar-year averages in 2017, 2018 and through this month in 2019 have varied by only one point, coming in at 40%, 41% and 41%, respectively.
The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019. In short, Trump's approval rating among blacks has essentially not changed over time, despite blacks presumably having had plenty of time to observe the economic gains that Trump touts as the reason why they should be moving into his camp.
Approval ratings for an incumbent president have a significant relationship to actual election outcomes. I think it is fair to say that Trump's progress toward a substantially higher share of the black vote than he got in 2016 is in severe doubt if he maintains a 10% black approval rating. Notably, the last Republican president before Trump, George W. Bush, had a 14% approval rating among blacks in 2004 as he was seeking re-election. Bush received 11% of the black vote that November.
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
Gallup has more data and insights on the attitudes and behaviors of employees, customers, students and citizens than any other organization in the world.
We will not be voting for trump.
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