A Very Scary Chart

[william the wie]

Pretty thoroughly and stealthily.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hmm..... Most posts on 1-21-10.

So here we are at 13Mar10, and the market is 10,600 or so. Not great, but not bad. Economy is slowly improving. Some jobs coming back. A long slog back to reasonable prosperity.

 

[mal]

As you can see, all labels, dates and prices have been removed. One of the above charts dates back to a period encompassing parts of 1929-1930; the other shows a more recent picture. I'll let you guess what happened in march of 1931........

A Very Smelly Fart...



peace...

 

[Toro]

Hmm..... Most posts on 1-21-10.

So here we are at 13Mar10, and the market is 10,600 or so. Not great, but not bad. Economy is slowly improving. Some jobs coming back. A long slog back to reasonable prosperity.

Liquidity-Fueled Rally Explodes Higher - Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog
The Asset-Driven Economy and the Market - Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog

 

[Paulie]

Zander what's your current position these days?

You still out of equities and in cash?

 

[Zander]

Zander what's your current position these days?

You still out of equities and in cash?

100% T-bills and cash, and sleeping very well.

 

[Paulie]

Zander what's your current position these days?

You still out of equities and in cash?

100% T-bills and cash, and sleeping very well.

I just have a hard time believing that a significant drop in the market is going to happen when we're getting close to primary season for this year's mid terms.

The dems have too much to lose in that case, and I'm sure they have tricks up their sleeves.

We'll see though.

 

[Zander]

Zander what's your current position these days?

You still out of equities and in cash?

100% T-bills and cash, and sleeping very well.

I just have a hard time believing that a significant drop in the market is going to happen when we're getting close to primary season for this year's mid terms.

The dems have too much to lose in that case, and I'm sure they have tricks up their sleeves.

We'll see though.

Markets drop without reason. No fundamental reason required. I don't really care what happens. I see danger in all the markets and value preservation of capital over growth (or loss!) at this time. If I am wrong, big deal, I make a little less money. At least I won't lose any. Best of luck!

 

[Neubarth]

Zander what's your current position these days?

You still out of equities and in cash?

100% T-bills and cash, and sleeping very well.

I just have a hard time believing that a significant drop in the market is going to happen when we're getting close to primary season for this year's mid terms.

The dems have too much to lose in that case, and I'm sure they have tricks up their sleeves.

We'll see though.

I keep on telling people that the market will go down when Goldman Sachs wants it to go down. Obama wants the market up and Goldman has delivered. Still, Goldman is usually most loyal to the Republicans, and they want it to go down to create the impression that Obama is a total dufus. Watch and see what happens and when it happens. If there was a way of knowing when Goldman had all of their market shorting derivative positions in place, THEN, I would short the market will everything that I have, but I won't do it until I feel that Goldman is ready. They actually can run the whole show.

 

[Paulie]

100% T-bills and cash, and sleeping very well.

I just have a hard time believing that a significant drop in the market is going to happen when we're getting close to primary season for this year's mid terms.

The dems have too much to lose in that case, and I'm sure they have tricks up their sleeves.

We'll see though.

Markets drop without reason. No fundamental reason required. I don't really care what happens. I see danger in all the markets and value preservation of capital over growth (or loss!) at this time. If I am wrong, big deal, I make a little less money. At least I won't lose any. Best of luck!

Normally I wouldn't weigh my investment decisions based on partisan politics of all things, but I think this particular election cycle is going to make all the difference.

If the dems retain most of their seats, I expect to see a significant drop in most markets. Conversely, if the republicans take a bunch of new seats and kill the dem majority, I expect the market to react very favorably to that.

Right now, capital isn't sure if we're looking at a long stretch of socialism or not. A retained dem majority would pretty much ensure that, though.

 

[Paulie]

Neubarth, you definitely won't find me in disagreement with that. Goldman is the biggest player, but I don't think broad market manipulation can be achieved adequately with JUST Goldman, though.

 

[Modbert]

Neubarth, you definitely won't find me in disagreement with that. Goldman is the biggest player, but I don't think broad market manipulation can be achieved adequately with JUST Goldman, though.

If Neubarth was right at all, shouldn't this country have collapsed by now?

 

[uscitizen]

The world is different now than it was during the great depression.
We are in a global economy and the rules and regulations need to be changed to reflect the changes we have had.

We do not depend on nidustrial output now as we used to. We depend nearly 75% on US consumer spending. with our trade defecit and offshoring of jobs and industry the way we are now cannot and will not continue.

We must change or wither away.

Just my opinion based on a life of observation and experience.

 

[Paulie]

Neubarth, you definitely won't find me in disagreement with that. Goldman is the biggest player, but I don't think broad market manipulation can be achieved adequately with JUST Goldman, though.

If Neubarth was right at all, shouldn't this country have collapsed by now?

You don't have to be right about everything to be right about something.

 

[uscitizen]

Neubarth, you definitely won't find me in disagreement with that. Goldman is the biggest player, but I don't think broad market manipulation can be achieved adequately with JUST Goldman, though.

If Neubarth was right at all, shouldn't this country have collapsed by now?

The US economy is a massive thing even at a low poinnt. We run for quite a while just on inertia.

Our current situation was inevitable, and we may well never fully recover unless we change the way we do things.

More of the same is the worst thing we can do right now.

 

[Modbert]

You don't have to be right about everything to be right about something.

Never said you had to be right about everything. I'm merely saying if half his predictions came true, wouldn't America have been destroyed by now?

I'm asking a honest question, no malice behind it or anything. I just noticed there's a sharp contrast in posts in this section.

 

[Paulie]

You don't have to be right about everything to be right about something.

Never said you had to be right about everything. I'm merely saying if half his predictions came true, wouldn't America have been destroyed by now?

I'm asking a honest question, no malice behind it or anything. I just noticed there's a sharp contrast in posts in this section.

I don't really know, Dog. I'm a bear in the long term, but even I don't agree with his doomsday posts.

However, this time he posted something I agree with.

 

[mayya555]

We're all gonna die ... or at least we'lre all gonna go bust...

 

[editec]

As you can see, all labels, dates and prices have been removed. One of the above charts dates back to a period encompassing parts of 1929-1930; the other shows a more recent picture. I'll let you guess what happened in march of 1931........

Interesting. Wish they'd give up a timeframe to truly measure the similarities, though.

Do you know what year the DOW finally achived it's Oct 1929 high?

As I recall, it was about 1956.

I do not expect the Dow to take 27 years to achived it's high this time around.

Economic history really doesn't repeat itself any more than history repeats itself.

 

[william the wie]

As you can see, all labels, dates and prices have been removed. One of the above charts dates back to a period encompassing parts of 1929-1930; the other shows a more recent picture. I'll let you guess what happened in march of 1931........

Interesting. Wish they'd give up a timeframe to truly measure the similarities, though.

Do you know what year the DOW finally achived it's Oct 1929 high?

As I recall, it was about 1956.

I do not expect the Dow to take 27 years to achived it's high this time around.

Economic history really doesn't repeat itself any more than history repeats itself.

Probably right with one strange provisio investors like round numbers on the Dow: 100, 1000 and 10K +/- 10% are psychological sticking points. Major up moves will not be seen until enough killer apps accumulate to make a 10-15 year sprint to DJIA=100K feasible but a 1-2 year downside test of 1000 or even 100 requires only fear and leverage at most. Usually the Dow = 1/oz of gold is a very solid bottom but gold seems to be having a cyclical bear downturn within a longrun bull market. I would not put it past either the Fed or the current administration to try to lower gold prices during a market crash so a DJIA = $100 is my target.