A Very Scary Chart

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by Zander, Jan 10, 2010.

  1. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    It is possible, we will have to wait and see how the chart develops. I will share my thoughts with you as we go along.
     
  2. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    I'm just not sure we're going to fall that far without some kind of horrible economic news. At this point most people think we're at least done bleeding, if not "recovering".

    The excess liquidity is propping up the banks' balance sheets now. There doesn't seem to me to be anything that exists to realize another meltdown.

    We're looking at stagflation, at the worst, if you ask me.
     
  3. mal
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    mal Diamond Member

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    That's why I am Heavily Invested in Lead... ;)

    Do you have Link to your Predictions?...

    :)

    peace...
     
  4. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    Paulie, I have been using charts and the Elliot wave theory to track the market for 23 years. The last time I had as strong a confirmation of direction was in 1987. I had just started using the EWT and I couldn't believe what it was indicating - it was indicating an exceptional strong move to the upside that would last a number of years. Now I have almost the same chart patterns - in reverse. We are in for a severe decline that could last as long as 4 years.

    I don't waste time on fundamental analysis fallacies, they are almost always wrong. Fundamental analysis is only accurate AFTER the fact. It is a rearview mirror that attempts to explain why things happened......Best of luck!
     
  5. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    I told everyone here that I was going to cash on August 30th. I have been totally consistent. I think we are in for a massive deflationary wave that will see commodities, stocks and real estate all fall. The only safe asset will be CASH, T-bills, Hard assets purchased in the past (non numismatic gold and silver coins, bars etc), demand accounts at SAFE banks...

    Trust me, I get no pleasure from being this bearish, I have long been an optimist!!

    PS- this had nothing to do with politics....
     
  6. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    There has to be a catalyst to start the huge sell-off.

    Unless the big boys, i.e. the banks (who have no doubt been playing with their excess liquidity) start a massive sell-off, where is it going to come from?

    Your technical analysis would have to rely upon the overall psychology of the market as a whole that what you say will happen, will HAPPEN.

    Everyone would have to be expecting it right along with you, otherwise there could very well be a lot of resistance to the crash.

    If you're betting that everyone is on board with your TA, then good luck to you. I just can't see it happening. Not YET at least, anyway.

    As soon as the banks open their wallets, there will be inflation and continued equity and commodity buying.
     
  7. Zander
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    Zander Platinum Member

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    I'll be watching to see what happens, but so far, this is shaping up to be the largest decline in stock market history. I could be wrong, I often am. If I am wrong I will make a little less money than stock investors. I can live with that. If I am right I will have plenty of "dry powder" to buy whenever we hit bottom.....Good luck!
     
  8. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    I use both fundamental and technical analysis. Both can make money if used properly.
     
  9. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I expect a decline to about 9.5-10K, a rise to 10.5-11K and then a drop to about 6.5-7K so I am doing a lot of dynamic hedging.
     
  10. Big Fitz
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    Big Fitz User Quit *****

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    So... for those of us living paycheck to mouth. How fooked are we?
     

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