87% - 99% Certain of Trump Presidency - Prof. Helmut Norpoth

Discussion in 'USMB Op-Eds' started by Mrs. M., Oct 22, 2016.

  1. Mrs. M.
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    Meet Helmut Norpoth - a Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University who has created a statistical model of presidential elections that use a candidates performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

    Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year that Trump has a mininum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican Nominee.

    He now states that according to his statistical model that it is an 87% - 99% certainty that Trump will be the next president of the United States. As we see in this breaking interview Professor Northrop is not backing down from his earlier prediction (although he is now giving a window of 87%-99% instead of minimum 97%). You can hear what he has to say in this interview with a major news television network.



    In February the professor of political science at Stony Brook University had forecasted that Donald Trump had a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. The following graph and information is based on his primary model. Link and information below.


    The Primary Model (2016)​

    87%-99% Certain Trump Will Be President Primaries Predict Election Winner

    -- Cycle Also Favors GOP —​

    Forecast Model Batting 5 for 5 (since 1996)​

    by Helmut Norpoth​

    It is 87% to 99% certainty that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

    These predictions come from primarymodel.com

    It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

    Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

    What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.


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    Interesting, isn't it? As you can see in Professor Norpoth's primary model along with his proven record (5 out of 5) of having 100% accuracy provides the evidence which proves Donald Trump should indeed be declared the next President of the United States.

    Why present this primary model now? There is a great deal of evidence that points to the Clinton Camp rigging this election. Using this primary model and presentations of additional polling which runs counter to the polls liberal news media are using (see my Op-ed "Rigging Election") and admissions by the Democrat operatives of their mass election fraud tactics are useful tools to to build a case against Hillary Clinton. This will offer her the opportunity to abandon her plans to rig this election and accept defeat gracefully.

    I'm sure it will come as a novel idea for Mrs. Clinton to do the right thing but with some help I'm sure that she can be persuaded. I believe that Cardinal Dolan is the right man to break the news to her. This type of scientific evidence / study has a proven record and cannot be refuted. Professor Helmut Norpoth stated that he can track primaries back 100 years and the model he uses proves consistent and accurate.
     
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    Last edited: Oct 22, 2016
  2. C_Clayton_Jones
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    Everyone has the right to be ridiculous and delusional.
     
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  3. edthecynic
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    Well that settles it, no need for Trumpists to bother to vote now.
     
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  4. The Great Goose
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    100% of women, sambos and spicks will vote for Trump.
     
  5. JakeStarkey
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    :) What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?
     
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    If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.
     
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    Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.
     
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    Maya Benowitz, Mathematical Physicist/Biophysicist
    Written 20 Mar
    I would equate the accuracy of his 'model' to flipping a slightly biased coin for every election and getting heads every time. If I had $10 million to wager against his prediction, I would do so confidently. The 'statistical model' is political pixie dust, lacking any and all flavors of rigor. There is a fundamental problem in building predictive models from historical events. The further you go into the past, correlations exponentially decouple with respect to the present. This exponential decoupling is proportional to the exponential growth of technology. The political landscape has fundamentally changed in the post-internet era, any model not accounting for this change almost surely will fail.

    How statistically sound is Helmut Norpoth's 'primary model' for predicting presidential election results? - Quora
     
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  9. The Great Goose
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    Thank you darling, but Trump will win.
     
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