2014's GDP Final Revisions: -2.9%, Looks Like Another Recession

[RWHeathenGamer]

Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009.

And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn't: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine, because even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!

GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations | Zero Hedge

 

[RWHeathenGamer]

Talk about a short lived "recovery". Looks like were screwed.

 

[HenryBHough]

On the brighter side, those who were recently priced out of the housing market may get another chance. If they can find any bank that's not afraid to lend.

 

[Siete]

go hang yourself, the end is near.

 

[RWHeathenGamer]

On the brighter side, those who were recently priced out of the housing market may get another chance. If they can find any bank that's not afraid to lend.

Waiting for real estate to bottom out again so I can buy a condo. I am a getting realtors coming by my house twice a week asking me if I want to sell. They realize we are at the height of the bubble and there will be blood in the streets financially speaking. Now is the time to cash out if you are looking to flip real estate or stocks. The FED won't be able to sustain these low interest rates forever, and when that happens, real estate and stocks will crash, and after that comes austerity, as the Federal Government won't be able to finance current spending levels. And then comes further decline in GDP.

 

[Siete]

David Rosenberg: U.S. economy in 2014 has more upside than many think | Financial Post


The Institute for Supply Management figures rarely lie and they are consistent with 3.5% real growth. Federal fiscal policy is set to shift to neutral from radical restraint and the broad state/local government sector is no longer shedding jobs and is, in fact, spending on infrastructure programs again.




Good news ? Someone shoot that Communist !

 

[g5000]

One quarter does not a recession make.

But the recovery has been sluggish. I believe that is for two reasons.

First and foremost, total public and private debt surpassed 270% of GDP around the year 2000. When total debt crosses that line, economic growth becomes sluggish, and the ability to recover from a downturn is greatly hampered.

Second, we are saddled with perhaps the most incompetent government we have ever had. Obama and the Democrats only know how to spread wealth around, not create it. The Republicans only know how to obstruct when they aren't the ones who are borrowing and spending.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Part of the problem remains the large financial institutions' continued success id keep interest rates rock bottom.

They can lend money at much higher rates than what they are willing to pay to normal savers.

Rather than let institutions abuse our use of money, we have been property for a decade now, and we have done quite well.

However, I would like to have some decent savings interest along with our money markets and other investments.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Admin says its cold weather.

 

[JakeStarkey]

On the brighter side, those who were recently priced out of the housing market may get another chance. If they can find any bank that's not afraid to lend.

Waiting for real estate to bottom out again so I can buy a condo. I am a getting realtors coming by my house twice a week asking me if I want to sell. They realize we are at the height of the bubble and there will be blood in the streets financially speaking. Now is the time to cash out if you are looking to flip real estate or stocks. The FED won't be able to sustain these low interest rates forever, and when that happens, real estate and stocks will crash, and after that comes austerity, as the Federal Government won't be able to finance current spending levels. And then comes further decline in GDP.

Yes, an adjustment is coming but will not be as dire as you suggest. Don't wait until the last moment. We moved some money on which we had tripled our principal just last week. Maybe a year at the most before the slide begins.

 

[HenryBHough]

Admin says its cold weather.

OMG, they're admitted Global Warming is a hoax?

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Admin says its cold weather.

It's Bush's fault... everybody knows this.

 

[RWHeathenGamer]

David Rosenberg: U.S. economy in 2014 has more upside than many think | Financial Post


The Institute for Supply Management figures rarely lie and they are consistent with 3.5% real growth. Federal fiscal policy is set to shift to neutral from radical restraint and the broad state/local government sector is no longer shedding jobs and is, in fact, spending on infrastructure programs again.




Good news ? Someone shoot that Communist !

When I highlighted my bet with well-known economist John Mauldin that we would see at least one three-handle on payrolls next year and that I see real GDP growth at 3%, you could hear gasps in the room. Today, this is viewed by most as wishful thinking.

LOL, the exact opposite happened. Let me guess, this guy is probably telling you to buy equities as well?

The guy sounds like a quack.

 

[Siete]

Admin says its cold weather.

It's Bush's fault... everybody knows this.

nobody said that, and nobody said a recession looms either ... everybody knows that.

 

[hipeter924]

Needs more than a dip in one quarter to be a recession, so best to wait and see.

 

[RWHeathenGamer]

One quarter does not a recession make.

But the recovery has been sluggish. I believe that is for two reasons.

First and foremost, total public and private debt surpassed 270% of GDP around the year 2000. When total debt crosses that line, economic growth becomes sluggish, and the ability to recover from a downturn is greatly hampered.

Second, we are saddled with perhaps the most incompetent government we have ever had. Obama and the Democrats only know how to spread wealth around, not create it. The Republicans only know how to obstruct when they aren't the ones who are borrowing and spending.

Reread the title. I said, looks like another recession. Not is another recession. A Recession take two quarters of negative economic growth.

But historically this negative a turn in GDP has always preceded a recession. So don't be shocked when we get negative reports next quarter as well.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Admin says its cold weather.

OMG, they're admitted Global Warming is a hoax?

No, the next negative growth will be due to solar flares.

 

[g5000]

One quarter does not a recession make.

But the recovery has been sluggish. I believe that is for two reasons.

First and foremost, total public and private debt surpassed 270% of GDP around the year 2000. When total debt crosses that line, economic growth becomes sluggish, and the ability to recover from a downturn is greatly hampered.

Second, we are saddled with perhaps the most incompetent government we have ever had. Obama and the Democrats only know how to spread wealth around, not create it. The Republicans only know how to obstruct when they aren't the ones who are borrowing and spending.

Reread the title. I said, looks like another recession. Not is another recession. A Recession take two quarters of negative economic growth.

But historically this negative a turn in GDP has always preceded a recession. So don't be shocked when we get negative reports next quarter as well.

The "next quarter" ends in 4 days.

And things are looking up. So it does NOT look like another recession.

I don't know. Either way, it sure as shit doesn't feel like things are going well.

 

[RWHeathenGamer]

On the brighter side, those who were recently priced out of the housing market may get another chance. If they can find any bank that's not afraid to lend.

Waiting for real estate to bottom out again so I can buy a condo. I am a getting realtors coming by my house twice a week asking me if I want to sell. They realize we are at the height of the bubble and there will be blood in the streets financially speaking. Now is the time to cash out if you are looking to flip real estate or stocks. The FED won't be able to sustain these low interest rates forever, and when that happens, real estate and stocks will crash, and after that comes austerity, as the Federal Government won't be able to finance current spending levels. And then comes further decline in GDP.

Yes, an adjustment is coming but will not be as dire as you suggest. Don't wait until the last moment. We moved some money on which we had tripled our principal just last week. Maybe a year at the most before the slide begins.

I didn't say dire. I am not going to be foolish enough to predict when the contraction/correction will come exactly or how severe it will be. The numbers suggest it will be similar to 2008 but who knows. All I know is the smart money is on a correction sooner rather than later and many of the hedge funds and larger wall street institutions are starting to move out of equities(stocks). They see something coming.

 

[Siete]

Causes of Recessions | Economics Help