Wroberson
VIP Member
First off, I'm sorry. We're all tired of the polling roller coaster. That's why I did the math.
I am proud of this poll I took using the most recent information I could find. I used voter census numbers, early voter numbers and the latest poll. It's non-bais. I did not alter any of the polling information to get the results. My earlier one was the vote and poll broken down by race and it turned out a bigger advantage. I didn't like it so much, but I still have a copy. That one started Obama off with 37 million minority votes and then divided the white votes based on the sex polling where 50.5% of white women favored Obama and 42.5% of white men favored Obama. It resulted in a landslide for the President.
This new new poll skips the minority and the white men and women and stick with just the most recent polling numbers.
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Early Voting heavily favors Obama 10-22-2012: 59% to 31%. Though dated the 22nd, this was on the eve of the last debacle between the two guys. THIS NUMBER CAN'T BE CHANGED until a new early voter exit poll is published. 35% of all voters have voted. Early voting is at a blistering record pace.
Total Voters 131,144,000
35% of total 45,900,400
59% of early votes 27,081,236
31% of early votes 14,229,124
Recent poll:
Total remaining voters: 85,243,600
Romney 50% votes 42,621,800
Obama 47% votes 40,064,492
Let's add it up:
Romney 42,621,800+14,229,124= 56,850,924
Obama 40,064,492+27,081,236= 67,145,728
Uncounted votes 10% of Early voted 4,590,040
3% of latest poll numbers 2,557,308
Even if you give Romney all the 10% uncounted early votes from exit polling and the 3% margin from the latest poll the totals are:
Obama 67,145,728
Romney 63,998,272
Even if you say, more or less than 131,144,000 people will vote, Obama is ahead. This number will not change the reported percentages.
I am proud of this poll I took using the most recent information I could find. I used voter census numbers, early voter numbers and the latest poll. It's non-bais. I did not alter any of the polling information to get the results. My earlier one was the vote and poll broken down by race and it turned out a bigger advantage. I didn't like it so much, but I still have a copy. That one started Obama off with 37 million minority votes and then divided the white votes based on the sex polling where 50.5% of white women favored Obama and 42.5% of white men favored Obama. It resulted in a landslide for the President.
This new new poll skips the minority and the white men and women and stick with just the most recent polling numbers.
----------------------------------------
Early Voting heavily favors Obama 10-22-2012: 59% to 31%. Though dated the 22nd, this was on the eve of the last debacle between the two guys. THIS NUMBER CAN'T BE CHANGED until a new early voter exit poll is published. 35% of all voters have voted. Early voting is at a blistering record pace.
Total Voters 131,144,000
35% of total 45,900,400
59% of early votes 27,081,236
31% of early votes 14,229,124
Recent poll:
Total remaining voters: 85,243,600
Romney 50% votes 42,621,800
Obama 47% votes 40,064,492
Let's add it up:
Romney 42,621,800+14,229,124= 56,850,924
Obama 40,064,492+27,081,236= 67,145,728
Uncounted votes 10% of Early voted 4,590,040
3% of latest poll numbers 2,557,308
Even if you give Romney all the 10% uncounted early votes from exit polling and the 3% margin from the latest poll the totals are:
Obama 67,145,728
Romney 63,998,272
Even if you say, more or less than 131,144,000 people will vote, Obama is ahead. This number will not change the reported percentages.