PoliticalChic
Diamond Member
William Galston, from the Left-leaning Brookings Institute, wrotes the following:
"One Year to Go: President Barack Obamas Uphill Battle for Reelection in 2012
1. More than in any contest since 1992, the economy will be the overwhelming focus. But fundamental clashes about the role of government will also be in play against a backdrop of record low public confidence in our governing institutions.
2. ...contests involving incumbents tend to be referenda on their records more than choices between candidates. If the election pitting Obama against the strongest potential Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, were held tomorrow, the president would probably lose.
3. ...three factors could change the odds in Obamas favor. Economic growth could exceed expectations, and the unemployment ratelong stuck at 9 percentcould come down fast enough to restore a modicum of Americans shattered hopes for the future. The Republicans could commit creedal suicide by nominating a presidential candidate outside the mainstream or unqualified for the office.
4. ...Obama campaign could make a wise decision to focus first and foremost on the statesprincipally in the Midwestthat have decided presidential elections in the past half century and are poised to do so again next year. If the president tries to rerun his 2008 campaign under very different circumstances, he could end up turning potential victory into defeat.
5. ...from Obamas inauguration through the end of 2009, on average, 39 percent of the electorate thought that the country was generally heading in the right directionnot great, but much better than the 2008 average of 13 percent. But things have gone downhill ever since: right direction averaged 33 percent in 2010 and 28 percent thus far in 2011. As of early November it stands at just 21 percent.
6. Fifty-seven percent of the people regard the economy and jobs as the most important issues facing the country, compared to 5 percent for the budget deficit, 2 percent for health and education, and 1 percent for poverty, crime and war. (Neither abortion nor moral values registers even 1 percent.)
7. During the 2007-2009 recession, median household income declined by 3.2 percent. Since the official end of the recession in mid-2009, it has declined by an additional 6.7 percent. Median household income now stands below what it was in 2000.
a. President Obama is increasingly being held responsible as well: 53 percent of the voters now blame him a great deal or a moderate amount for the economy, up more than 20 points....The big swing has come among Independents, whose blame Obama percentage has risen from 37 percent in early 2009 to 60 percent in the fall of 2011 (Gallup, September 21, 2011)....by a margin of 64 to 30 percent, Americans still blame government more than Wall Street for our economic plight. Not surprisingly four in five Republicans blame government more. But so do 65 percent of Independents.
8. The people want change, but they have no confidence in the public sector as the change agent. That would seem to give the edge to the anti-government party, but unfortunately for the Republicans, the people think theyre out to serve the interests of the rich, who already have too much. That would seem to give the edge back to Obama and the Democrats. But unfortunately for them, the people cant figure out whose interests Obama and the Democrats want to serveor whether they have a plan that could translate good economic intentions into tangible results."
One Year to Go: President Barack Obama
This, from the Left, but packed with facts.
His discussion of the electoral vote is really interesting if you have time, here:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/1107_obama_galston/1107_obama_galston.pdf
"One Year to Go: President Barack Obamas Uphill Battle for Reelection in 2012
1. More than in any contest since 1992, the economy will be the overwhelming focus. But fundamental clashes about the role of government will also be in play against a backdrop of record low public confidence in our governing institutions.
2. ...contests involving incumbents tend to be referenda on their records more than choices between candidates. If the election pitting Obama against the strongest potential Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, were held tomorrow, the president would probably lose.
3. ...three factors could change the odds in Obamas favor. Economic growth could exceed expectations, and the unemployment ratelong stuck at 9 percentcould come down fast enough to restore a modicum of Americans shattered hopes for the future. The Republicans could commit creedal suicide by nominating a presidential candidate outside the mainstream or unqualified for the office.
4. ...Obama campaign could make a wise decision to focus first and foremost on the statesprincipally in the Midwestthat have decided presidential elections in the past half century and are poised to do so again next year. If the president tries to rerun his 2008 campaign under very different circumstances, he could end up turning potential victory into defeat.
5. ...from Obamas inauguration through the end of 2009, on average, 39 percent of the electorate thought that the country was generally heading in the right directionnot great, but much better than the 2008 average of 13 percent. But things have gone downhill ever since: right direction averaged 33 percent in 2010 and 28 percent thus far in 2011. As of early November it stands at just 21 percent.
6. Fifty-seven percent of the people regard the economy and jobs as the most important issues facing the country, compared to 5 percent for the budget deficit, 2 percent for health and education, and 1 percent for poverty, crime and war. (Neither abortion nor moral values registers even 1 percent.)
7. During the 2007-2009 recession, median household income declined by 3.2 percent. Since the official end of the recession in mid-2009, it has declined by an additional 6.7 percent. Median household income now stands below what it was in 2000.
a. President Obama is increasingly being held responsible as well: 53 percent of the voters now blame him a great deal or a moderate amount for the economy, up more than 20 points....The big swing has come among Independents, whose blame Obama percentage has risen from 37 percent in early 2009 to 60 percent in the fall of 2011 (Gallup, September 21, 2011)....by a margin of 64 to 30 percent, Americans still blame government more than Wall Street for our economic plight. Not surprisingly four in five Republicans blame government more. But so do 65 percent of Independents.
8. The people want change, but they have no confidence in the public sector as the change agent. That would seem to give the edge to the anti-government party, but unfortunately for the Republicans, the people think theyre out to serve the interests of the rich, who already have too much. That would seem to give the edge back to Obama and the Democrats. But unfortunately for them, the people cant figure out whose interests Obama and the Democrats want to serveor whether they have a plan that could translate good economic intentions into tangible results."
One Year to Go: President Barack Obama
This, from the Left, but packed with facts.
His discussion of the electoral vote is really interesting if you have time, here:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/1107_obama_galston/1107_obama_galston.pdf