You Republicans couldn't handle a big city.
Violent Crime Is Falling Nationwide — Here’s How We Know
Misleading statements about crime and public safety are
already proliferating in this election cycle. As November draws closer, misinformation is likely to intensify. That makes it even more important to take a close look at what the best and most recent crime data tells us. One major trend is becoming clear: violent crime dropped in 2021 and 2022 — and then declined again, significantly, in 2023. We’ll have to wait until the fall for final government data to confirm this trend. Until then, here’s what we know, how we know it, and what it means — drawing on both city data and the most recent information from the FBI.
City-level data shows declines in violent crime
Do you think the police are lying?
On March 18, the FBI released
preliminary quarterly crime data for 2023. Intended to supplement the FBI’s
annual fall report on nationwide crime trends, these quarterly reports offer an early but incomplete look at crime data from a
smaller group of police agencies than represented in final annual reports. The latest release covers
more than 80 percent of the population — a very robust sample, even if there are errors in the city-level data that should be corrected before the FBI releases final year-end data in the fall.
The broad trend matches what researchers have observed in collections of city data about crime trends between 2022 and 2023. Specifically, the FBI’s report shows remarkable declines in murder (down 13.2 percent), violent crime (down 5.7 percent), and property crime (down 4.3 percent). Of the seven major offenses tracked by the FBI, the report shows an increase only in motor vehicle theft (up 10.7 percent).
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