shockedcanadian
Diamond Member
- Aug 6, 2012
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These are some of the economic concerns (if I traveled down the road of investigating and outlining some of the social and spiritual concerns, this post would be 5 times the length), above and beyond the challenges I have outlined and experienced.
I will try to advise the Canadian government, though I'm quite creeped out about what I have experienced for so long, one can only hope that maybe someone finally decides to be a leader and not a shoe shiner for the S.I.C.
You would ascertain that a system lacking in such competitive spirit and ambition would embrace and promote their most driven citizens, not destroy them. Even the old Soviet system would at least milk their citizens ambitions, even as they stunted their growth. Canada puts a kibosh on citizens in a caste-like fashion. A recipe for a nation destined to fail.
Regardless, here are some REAL concerns for our economy in 2025 and beyond. It is going to make negotiations with America even more critical. There has been a heavily weighed reliance on the Financial Post for many of these statistics, among other sources. (https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canada-recession-headline-numbers-economist):
Declining Real GDP Per Capita:
- Real GDP per capita has fallen for six consecutive quarters through Q3 2024, with a 0.4% decline in the third quarter alone
- Since 2020, Canada’s cumulative real GDP per capita growth is -3.0%, the worst among G7 countries (e.g., U.S. +8.2%, Italy +5.1%).
- This reflects population growth (3.2% in 2023, mostly from immigration) outpacing economic output, masking underlying weakness
Unemployment Rising:
- The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November 2024, up 1% from the previous year.
- Oxford Economics projects unemployment could hit 7.9% by the end of 2025, driven by an estimated 150,000 layoffs
Inflation and Cost-of-Living Pressures:
- Food inflation has risen 25% and energy costs 30% since the COVID-19 pandemic.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)
- Inflation is projected to climb to 7.2% by mid-2025 if U.S. tariffs (25% on Canadian goods) are implemented, exacerbating household financial strain.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)
- Core inflation is forecasted at 2.5% for 2025, above the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target midpoint.Our economic outlook for Canada
Impact of Potential U.S. Tariffs:
- U.S. tariffs, effective March 2025, could reduce Canada’s GDP by 2.5% by early 2026 and lead to significant job losses (up to 1.2 million jobs at risk in tariff-affected sectors
Poverty and Social Strain:
- Food bank usage hit a record 1.5 million visits in March 2022, with 2.8 million Canadians living in poverty by September 2023. It is much higher today, sadly.
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_%282022%25E2%2580%2593present%29: A 2024 Ipsos poll found 70% of Canadians (80% of those aged 18–34) believe “Canada is broken,” with 42% considering emigration due to economic and social challenges.
Business and Investment Weakness:
- Real business investment fell nearly 7% in the second half of 2023, continuing a decades-long trend of underinvestment.
- Business insolvencies surged 56.7% in the year ending March 2024, an unprecedented rise.
- The Bank of Canada estimates a potential 12% decline in investment and an 8.5% drop in exports if U.S. tariffs persist for a year.
Government Debt/Fiscal Issues:
I will try to advise the Canadian government, though I'm quite creeped out about what I have experienced for so long, one can only hope that maybe someone finally decides to be a leader and not a shoe shiner for the S.I.C.
You would ascertain that a system lacking in such competitive spirit and ambition would embrace and promote their most driven citizens, not destroy them. Even the old Soviet system would at least milk their citizens ambitions, even as they stunted their growth. Canada puts a kibosh on citizens in a caste-like fashion. A recipe for a nation destined to fail.
Regardless, here are some REAL concerns for our economy in 2025 and beyond. It is going to make negotiations with America even more critical. There has been a heavily weighed reliance on the Financial Post for many of these statistics, among other sources. (https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/canada-recession-headline-numbers-economist):
Declining Real GDP Per Capita:
- Real GDP per capita has fallen for six consecutive quarters through Q3 2024, with a 0.4% decline in the third quarter alone
- Since 2020, Canada’s cumulative real GDP per capita growth is -3.0%, the worst among G7 countries (e.g., U.S. +8.2%, Italy +5.1%).
- This reflects population growth (3.2% in 2023, mostly from immigration) outpacing economic output, masking underlying weakness
Unemployment Rising:
- The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November 2024, up 1% from the previous year.
- Oxford Economics projects unemployment could hit 7.9% by the end of 2025, driven by an estimated 150,000 layoffs
Inflation and Cost-of-Living Pressures:
- Food inflation has risen 25% and energy costs 30% since the COVID-19 pandemic.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)
- Inflation is projected to climb to 7.2% by mid-2025 if U.S. tariffs (25% on Canadian goods) are implemented, exacerbating household financial strain.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)
- Core inflation is forecasted at 2.5% for 2025, above the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target midpoint.Our economic outlook for Canada
Impact of Potential U.S. Tariffs:
- U.S. tariffs, effective March 2025, could reduce Canada’s GDP by 2.5% by early 2026 and lead to significant job losses (up to 1.2 million jobs at risk in tariff-affected sectors
Poverty and Social Strain:
- Food bank usage hit a record 1.5 million visits in March 2022, with 2.8 million Canadians living in poverty by September 2023. It is much higher today, sadly.
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_economic_crisis_%282022%25E2%2580%2593present%29: A 2024 Ipsos poll found 70% of Canadians (80% of those aged 18–34) believe “Canada is broken,” with 42% considering emigration due to economic and social challenges.
Business and Investment Weakness:
- Real business investment fell nearly 7% in the second half of 2023, continuing a decades-long trend of underinvestment.
- Business insolvencies surged 56.7% in the year ending March 2024, an unprecedented rise.
- The Bank of Canada estimates a potential 12% decline in investment and an 8.5% drop in exports if U.S. tariffs persist for a year.
Government Debt/Fiscal Issues:
