The 2024 Election Polling Failure.

[WelfareQueen]

Well,

We all know the Media memes leading up to election day. "It's neck and neck, it's a horse race." Turns out it was all bullshit. While the final polling is not in, it looks like Trump will win the National Vote total by roughly 3.5%. The final Real Clear National Polling average had Harris up .1%. So, the National polls on average will be out roughly 3.5% or more, which is outside the margin of error. This is a massive polling error.


Final Real Clear Polling averages. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/


It is also interesting to note that every single Battleground State under-represented Trump's support. My only take is the legacy media that was doing these polls are either grossly incompetent or were lying. Of the two options my best guess is lying. I felt for several months it was a media Psy Ops campaign to discourage Trump voters and make Dem voters enthused and more readily willing to turn out to vote. It obviously didn't work. But it fooled the rubes on the Left who still believe after the Pee Tape, Russian Collusion, Jussie Smollett, the Hunter Biden Laptop, The Fine People Hoax, Injecting Bleach Hoax and all the rest, that the media still tells the truth. My hope is the Dems finally wise up to the legacy media, but of course the odds of this are slim.


I would like this thread to prompt discussing on the Polling failures, and also folk's thoughts on the media's responsibility for these failures. This deserves major discussion, because clearly the American People, both on the Left and the Right, were given garbage information.


Please discuss:


Dont Taz Me Bro

rightwinger

Mac1958

MarathonMike

 

[WelfareQueen]

By the way, I said this at 5;15pm on Election Day before any results were in.

I have been studying this closely for several weeks. As objectively as I can be, not looking good for Harris/Walz. As in 2016 and 2020, it looks like the pollsters under-represented the Trump vote from 1.5-3.5%. Voting in heavily urban areas in down significantly from 2020 as is mailing in voting, which tends to be heavily Democrat. Minority voting is also down considerably.

In Pennsylvania, early voting for Dems is down 600,000-700,000.

Mark Penn and Doug Schoen, both Dem pollsters, think Trump is in a better position and the Trump voters are being under-represented. I will accept any outcome as long as there is no monkey business. Pennsylvania has already tried, but it was shot down by a Federal Judge.

I will of course wait for the returns, but people like Jenn Psaki, Van Jones, and others who are Dems in the know are expressing quite a bit of concern. I do not think they are lying.

 

[Missourian]

I've been beating this drum all month until I figured folks were tired of hearing it.

Trump outperformed the polling in 2016.

Not only nationally but I'm the swing states.

Trump outperformed the national and swing state polls in 2020 by 3 points.

And that's what I based my prediction that Trump would win the popular vote on.

Trump was up national in 2024 by 0.1 and was ahead or within a point in every swing state.

I'm just a dumbass redneck in Missouri and I could figure this out. Why couldn't the media or the people that do this for a living???

 

[Donald H]

The simple explanation is that Americans believed what they wanted to believe.

I posted a thread on the eve before the election: Kamala Loses.

Now we can start getting into some of the truths that start coming home with the chickens!

 

[WelfareQueen]

I've been beating this drum all month until I figured folks were tired of hearing it.

Trump outperformed the polling in 2016.

Not only nationally but I'm the swing states.

Trump outperformed the national and swing state polls in 2020 by 3 points.

And that's what I based my prediction that Trump would win the popular vote on.

Trump was up national in 2024 by 0.1 and was ahead or within a point in every swing state.

I'm just a dumbass redneck in Missouri and I could figure this out. Why couldn't the media or the people that do this for a living???

View attachment 1038223

Thank you for your post. It was pretty obvious to me as well the polls were garbage. And as you said, the polls were biased against Trump in 2016 and 2020. He outperformed the polls in 2016 by about 1.5% and, as you said, over 3% in 2020. So, based on that, you would think the pollsters would make corrections this election cycle. Clearly, they did not. The question is why? Was it deliberate, or was it incompetence?

 

[Independent thinker]

Well,

We all know the Media memes leading up to election day. "It's neck and neck, it's a horse race." Turns out it was all bullshit. While the final polling is not in, it looks like Trump will win the National Vote total by roughly 3.5%. The final Real Clear National Polling average had Harris up .1%. So, the National polls on average will be out roughly 3.5% or more, which is outside the margin of error. This is a massive polling error.


Final Real Clear Polling averages. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/


It is also interesting to note that every single Battleground State under-represented Trump's support. My only take is the legacy media that was doing these polls are either grossly incompetent or were lying. Of the two options my best guess is lying. I felt for several months it was a media Psy Ops campaign to discourage Trump voters and make Dem voters enthused and more readily willing to turn out to vote. It obviously didn't work. But it fooled the rubes on the Left who still believe after the Pee Tape, Russian Collusion, Jussie Smollett, the Hunter Biden Laptop, The Fine People Hoax, Injecting Bleach Hoax and all the rest, that the media still tells the truth. My hope is the Dems finally wise up to the legacy media, but of course the odds of this are slim.


I would like this thread to prompt discussing on the Polling failures, and also folk's thoughts on the media's responsibility for these failures. This deserves major discussion, because clearly the American People, both on the Left and the Right, were given garbage information.


Please discuss:


Dont Taz Me Bro

rightwinger

Mac1958

MarathonMike

I don't even know how they poll anymore. No one has a landline. People on their cells usually don't answer numbers they know are spam. So, who's left to poll?

 

[MarathonMike]

Well,

We all know the Media memes leading up to election day. "It's neck and neck, it's a horse race." Turns out it was all bullshit. While the final polling is not in, it looks like Trump will win the National Vote total by roughly 3.5%. The final Real Clear National Polling average had Harris up .1%. So, the National polls on average will be out roughly 3.5% or more, which is outside the margin of error. This is a massive polling error.


Final Real Clear Polling averages. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/


It is also interesting to note that every single Battleground State under-represented Trump's support. My only take is the legacy media that was doing these polls are either grossly incompetent or were lying. Of the two options my best guess is lying. I felt for several months it was a media Psy Ops campaign to discourage Trump voters and make Dem voters enthused and more readily willing to turn out to vote. It obviously didn't work. But it fooled the rubes on the Left who still believe after the Pee Tape, Russian Collusion, Jussie Smollett, the Hunter Biden Laptop, The Fine People Hoax, Injecting Bleach Hoax and all the rest, that the media still tells the truth. My hope is the Dems finally wise up to the legacy media, but of course the odds of this are slim.


I would like this thread to prompt discussing on the Polling failures, and also folk's thoughts on the media's responsibility for these failures. This deserves major discussion, because clearly the American People, both on the Left and the Right, were given garbage information.


Please discuss:


Dont Taz Me Bro

rightwinger

Mac1958

MarathonMike

I followed AtlasIntel pretty closely since they proved that their sampling methodology was much more accurate than the rest. And they were very near spot on again predicting a sweep of the swing states with significant margins. It's interesting a Brazilian company has "cracked the code" on how to sample Americans, but American pollsters continue to suck at it.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I don't even know how they poll anymore. No one has a landline. People on their cells usually don't answer numbers they know are spam. So, who's left to poll?

I was actually called on my Cellphone and I answered. Pollsters have multiple ways for manipulating the numbers. For instance, a self-identified Independent Voter in Arkansas probably leans Right. A self-identified independent voter in San Francisco probably leans Left. Where do you survey your Independent Voters?

This is an easy hidden way to skew your polling numbers any way you want.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I followed AtlasIntel pretty closely since they proved that their sampling methodology was much more accurate than the rest. And they were very near spot on again predicting a sweep of the swing states with significant margins. It's interesting a Brazilian company has "cracked the code" on how to sample Americans, but American pollsters continue to suck at it.

Atlas Intel is the best in the business. Top five are Atlas Intel, Emerson, Trafalger, and Inside Advantage and Rasmussen. Nate Silver and many other media hacks will not use their data because they are "Right wing pollsters."

Nope: they are by far the most accurate pollsters, but they are not telling the Left what they want to hear.

 

[marvin martian]

Well,

We all know the Media memes leading up to election day. "It's neck and neck, it's a horse race." Turns out it was all bullshit. While the final polling is not in, it looks like Trump will win the National Vote total by roughly 3.5%. The final Real Clear National Polling average had Harris up .1%. So, the National polls on average will be out roughly 3.5% or more, which is outside the margin of error. This is a massive polling error.


Final Real Clear Polling averages. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/


It is also interesting to note that every single Battleground State under-represented Trump's support. My only take is the legacy media that was doing these polls are either grossly incompetent or were lying. Of the two options my best guess is lying. I felt for several months it was a media Psy Ops campaign to discourage Trump voters and make Dem voters enthused and more readily willing to turn out to vote. It obviously didn't work. But it fooled the rubes on the Left who still believe after the Pee Tape, Russian Collusion, Jussie Smollett, the Hunter Biden Laptop, The Fine People Hoax, Injecting Bleach Hoax and all the rest, that the media still tells the truth. My hope is the Dems finally wise up to the legacy media, but of course the odds of this are slim.


I would like this thread to prompt discussing on the Polling failures, and also folk's thoughts on the media's responsibility for these failures. This deserves major discussion, because clearly the American People, both on the Left and the Right, were given garbage information.


Please discuss:


Dont Taz Me Bro

rightwinger

Mac1958

MarathonMike

Like the corporate media and Big Tech, the "polls" are biased. They're just another propaganda tool for the DemoKKKrats.

The pollsters from this cycle, with few exceptions, are done and will need to find new careers.

I hear McDonald's is hiring.

 

[scruffy]

I was actually called on my Cellphone and I answered. Pollsters have multiple ways for manipulating the numbers. For instance, a self-identified Independent Voter in Arkansas probably leans Right. A self-identified independent voter in San Francisco probably leans Left. Where do you survey your Independent Voters?

This is an easy hidden way to skew your polling numbers any way you want.

It's all about the dollars.

Close races generate views which generate advertising dollars.

 

[WelfareQueen]

It is interesting to note that the New York Times, The best pollster per Nate Silver, had Harris winning the National Polling by 1% right before the election. Right now, The New York Times is off 4.5 points, which is of course, well outside the statistical margin of error.

Why could they be so wrong? Hmmm......I wonder?

What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got Wrong

The polls weren’t off that much in capturing a near-uniform swing in very close states. But they underestimated the Trump vote once again.

nymag.com

 

[Rogue AI]

Polling was infected with silly wokeness for years. They started adding 'weights' to some responses without gathering real data, they never adjusted when fewer people identified as Democrats. The typical polls artificially leaned left before the first question was asked. The pollsters didn't believe the shy Trump voter still existed, based off 'historical' data, while ignoring that no historical data represents one candidate over three cycles. It was either extreme stupidity or blatant lying. I'm going with lying, the media was trying to tip the scales, and failed miserably.

 

[M14 Shooter]

Well,

We all know the Media memes leading up to election day. "It's neck and neck, it's a horse race." Turns out it was all bullshit. While the final polling is not in, it looks like Trump will win the National Vote total by roughly 3.5%. The final Real Clear National Polling average had Harris up .1%. So, the National polls on average will be out roughly 3.5% or more, which is outside the margin of error. This is a massive polling error.

Trump out-performed his state polling numbers every election.
This demonstrates systemic error.

 

[Missourian]

Thank you for your post. It was pretty obvious to me as well the polls were garbage. And as you said, the polls were biased against Trump in 2016 and 2020. He outperformed the polls in 2016 by about 1.5% and, as you said, over 3% in 2020. So, based on that, you would think the pollsters would make corrections this election cycle. Clearly, they did not. The question is why? Was it deliberate, or was it incompetence?

I think...

1) pollsters can't reach Trump voters

2) pollsters oversample Democrats

3) all Republicans and Democrats aren't created equal...a Maryland Republican (Michael Steele, Larry Hogan) are damn near Democrats, while many Missouri Democrats would be considered far right Republicans if they lived in Massachusetts. If you're polling California Republicans, that's going to produce a significantly different outcome than Oklahoma Republicans.

4) their bias affects their polling and reporting...consciously or unconsciously I can't say. But in the days leading up to the election, I honestly believe they tend to put their thumbs on the scale to affect the election. Reporting Trump is ahead could create a bandwagon effect or even a self fulfilling prophecy that runs counter to their personal bias.

That's the way I see it.

 

[Missourian]

Stumbled upon this on X.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

I've said it dozens of times, any poll can be manipulated to achieve any desired result

A few bought into it on here .... LoL

 

[Mr. Friscus]

The major Democrat institutions are in a massive bubble. Not only are they wrong on polling, but their pundits are literally beside themselves, crying, and throwing temper tantrums while at the same time claiming to be "objective news sources".

 

[M14 Shooter]

The major Democrat institutions are in a massive bubble. Not only are they wrong on polling, but their pundits are literally beside themselves, crying, and throwing temper tantrums while at the same time claiming to be "objective news sources".

CNN and (especially) MSDNC are doubling down on the reasons the Dems lost.

 

[Missourian]