Great article.
Among Registered voters Trumps numbers are not so good, as much of his support is among brand new voters who have not registered and likely dont have the patience anyway to complete a long poll survey. The "likely" voters polls depends on how you define your "likely" as some polling outfits define it as registered who voted in the last election, but some go with a simple question, "How likely are you to vote in the next election?" and if they say that they are very likely to vote or certain to vote, etc, then they count them in, registered or not.
The Republicans who voted for Romney were a fairly moderate cross section of the GOP with all the hard core ideologues in the Amen corner, but the most conservative nonideologues tended to stay home and that caused Romney to fail to turn out much of the party base. So anyone that is GOP and voted in the last election is very likely to be a NeverTrumper.
Then there is also the number of people who are afraid to admit aloud that they plan to vote for Trump because they dont want to risk anyone over hearing them. Big factor in minority communities but in the college educated white population as well.
How many people are we talking about? The first group could be anywhere from a 5% to a 10% or mores shift in the polls as a lot of the primary polling in open primary states consistently under-represented Trumps actual turn out. The second group could be anywhere from 3% to 8%, but no one really knows or even has a firm idea.
I think it is safe to say that
Trumps actual numbers are about 5% to 10% higher than what we see in polls of registered voters.
But no matter what the polls show, and they have a huge range of results, from 3% up for Trump to a +7% for Hillary, the snap shot itself is not so nearly important as the trend that the polls are showing.
And everything is showing things moving in Trumps direction as he finally learns to discipline himself in front of the cameras, stays focused on his strongest issues and the continual drip-drip-drip of email leaks, health and other problems for Hillary mount up and take their toll on her support.
In the end, unless Trump totally blows the debates, Trump is going to win big because everything is pointing in his direction and we have still have TWO FULL MONTHS LEFT TO GO.
she has very few- to no NOTABLE accomplishments
