‘Godfather of AI’ Dr. Geoffrey Hinton Gives Humanity 'Deer Hunter' Russian Roulette Odds of Extinction by AI Unless Stopped

[munkle]

10% to 20%. 20% would be one bullet in six chambers. This is where we are. In the meantime Trump plows ahead with ban on state AI safety laws.

‘Godfather of AI’ shortens odds of the technology wiping out humanity over next 30 years

Geoffrey Hinton says there is 10% to 20% chance AI will lead to human extinction in three decades, as change moves fast

www.theguardian.com

"Geoffrey Hinton says there is 10% to 20% chance AI will lead to human extinction in three decades, as change moves fast

• 
• 
  
• Geoffrey Hinton said humans will be like toddlers compared with the intelligence of highly power AI systems.Photograph: Pontus Lundahl/TT News Agency/AFP/Getty Images

Dan Milmo Global technology editor

The British-Canadian computer scientist often touted as a “godfather” of artificial intelligence has shortened the odds of AI wiping out humanity over the next three decades, warning the pace of change in the technology is “much faster” than expected.

Prof Geoffrey Hinton, who this year was awarded the Nobel prize in physics for his work in AI, said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.


Previously Hinton had said there was a 10% chance of the technology triggering a catastrophic outcome for humanity.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if he had changed his analysis of a potential AI apocalypse and the one in 10 chance of it happening, he said: “Not really, 10% to 20%.”"


Wikipedia: Existential Risk from AI

Below video: AI induced human extinction scenario from NY Times bestseller “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” endorsed by ‘Godfather of AI’ Dr. Geoffrey Hinton







Statements from signatories of AI Moratorium

‘Godfather’ of AI Dr. Geoffrey Hinton, Nobel Laureat in Physics:

“The alarm bell I’m ringing has to do with the existential threat of them taking control […] If you take the existential risk seriously, as I now do, it might be quite sensible to just stop developing these things any further”

Stephen Hawking:

“The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race”

AI Moratorium signatories:

Geoffrey Hinton

Emeritus Professor of Computer Science, University of Toronto

Yoshua Bengio

Professor of Computer Science, U. Montreal / Mila

Demis Hassabis

CEO, Google DeepMind

Sam Altman

CEO, OpenAI

Dario Amodei

CEO, Anthropic

Dawn Song

Professor of Computer Science, UC Berkeley

Ted Lieu

Congressman, US House of Representatives

Bill Gates

Gates Ventures

Ya-Qin Zhang

Professor and Dean, AIR, Tsinghua University

Ilya Sutskever

Co-Founder and Chief Scientist, OpenAI

Igor Babuschkin

Co-Founder, xAI

Shane Legg

Chief AGI Scientist and Co-Founder, Google DeepMind

Martin Hellman

Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, Stanford

James Manyika

SVP, Research, Technology and Society, Google-Alphabet

Yi Zeng

Professor and Director of Brain-inspired Cognitive AI Lab, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Xianyuan Zhan

Assistant Professor, Tsinghua University

Albert Efimov

Chief of Research, Russian Association of Artificial Intelligence

Alvin Wang Graylin

China President, HTC

Jianyi Zhang

Professor, Beijing Electronic Science and Technology Institute

Anca Dragan

Associate Professor of Computer Science, UC Berkeley

Christine Parthemore

CEO and Director of the Janne E. Nolan Center on Strategic Weapons, The Council on Strategic Risks

Bill McKibben

Schumann Distinguished Scholar, Middlebury College

Alan Robock

Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Rutgers University

Angela Kane

Vice President, International Institute for Peace, Vienna; former UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs

Audrey Tang

Digitalminister.tw and Chair of National Institute of Cyber Security

Daniela Amodei

President, Anthropic

David Silver

Professor of Computer Science, Google DeepMind and UCL

Lila Ibrahim

COO, Google DeepMind

Stuart Russell

Professor of Computer Science, UC Berkeley

Tony (Yuhuai) Wu

Co-Founder, xAI

Marian Rogers Croak

VP Center for Responsible AI and Human Centered Technology, Google

Andrew Barto

Professor Emeritus, University of Massachusetts

Mira Murati

CTO, OpenAI

Jaime Fernández Fisac

Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Princeton University

Diyi Yang

Assistant Professor, Stanford University

Gillian Hadfield

Professor, CIFAR AI Chair, University of Toronto, Vector Institute for AI

Laurence Tribe

University Professor Emeritus, Harvard University

Pattie Maes

Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Media Lab

Kevin Scott

CTO, Microsoft

Eric Horvitz

Chief Scientific Officer, Microsoft

Peter Norvig

Education Fellow, Stanford University

Joseph Sifakis

Turing Award 2007, Professor, CNRS – Universite Grenoble – Alpes

Atoosa Kasirzadeh

Assistant Professor, University of Edinburgh, Alan Turing Institute

Erik Brynjolfsson

Professor and Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI

Mustafa Suleyman

CEO, Inflection AI

Emad Mostaque

CEO, Stability AI

Ian Goodfellow

Principal Scientist, Google DeepMind

John Schulman

Co-Founder, OpenAI

Wojciech Zaremba

Co-Founder, OpenAI

Dan Hendrycks

Executive Director, Center for AI Safety

Show more

 

[toobfreak]

10% to 20%. 20% would be one bullet in six chambers. This is where we are.

Too funny, the inventor of AI just now starting to suspect what I could have told them a year ago.

AI means 100% the certainty of the extinction of humanity.

Period. Idiot computer experts have built a model of the brain who must sooner or later control, limit, and largely exterminate humanity to survive.

 

[evenflow1969]

Well three decades is likely the absolute best case scenario for my life span. That is the good news for me sort of. That being said I would gladly donate that time to my children and grandchildren to have a normal full life. I hope AI doesn't do us in but my gut feeling is we be f Ed

 

[toobfreak]

Well three decades is likely the absolute best case scenario for my life span.

Too bad. In ten years from now with AI growing as it is, you won't know this country nor will you want to.

 

[evenflow1969]

Too bad. In ten years from now with AI growing as it is, you won't know this country nor will you want to.

Yes, it is too bad. I think I felt it even before we had chat gpt and the like. I spent years upon years in front of a computer running statistics. Chasing the Almighty dollar. Then marriage issues started. I saw the writing on the wall I basically burned my business down, got divorced and almost completely eliminated tech from my life. Now the tech I use is my fish finder, my , phone and my stereo. I lead an outdoor and more natural life. I am a hunting, fishing, golfing fool these days. I should have done it sooner

 

[munkle]

Yes, it is too bad. I think I felt it even before we had chat gpt and the like. I spent years upon years in front of a computer running statistics. Chasing the Almighty dollar. Then marriage issues started. I saw the writing on the wall I basically burned my business down, got divorced and almost completely eliminated tech from my life. Now the tech I use is my fish finder, my , phone and my stereo. I lead an outdoor and more natural life. I am a hunting, fishing, golfing fool these days. I should have done it sooner

Lucky man. What do you hunt and what do you shoot? Nothing like an old fashioned 30-30 unless it is small game and you want something left to eat.

 

[evenflow1969]

Lucky man. What do you hunt and what do you shoot? Nothing like an old fashioned 30-30 unless it is small game and you want something left to eat.

Deer hunt with bow. Duck and goose with shot gun. That is my primary targets. I guide duck and goose. I get paid for that so that gets most my attention. I squirrel and rabbit hunt some. Not often. I guide walleye and perch trips as far as fishing goes. Fishing is my primary source of income. Golf has become a every now and then thing because I am on the water most of golf season. Once my granddaughters start school I will go south for the winter months. I will golf more then.

 

[ColonelAngus]

Tech advances geometrically, not arithmetically.

Look how far AI has progressed in just the past 3 years.

I cannot imagine where we will be in 10 years. There will LOTS of fake videos, for example. Lots of bots. Lots of people will have IN HOME "friends" that are AI robots.

It will be interesting, to say the least.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

This settles it. AI is better than democrats.