Final Election Prediction (Poll)

[kyzr]

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

The polls say its a 50-50 election (see above sticky threads for links)

My personal prediction is Trump because of the current 75% wrong track, because of Biden's dismal 41% approval, and because of the unaffordable price of groceries for US citizens, while illegals get free food and housing...explain/justify your prediction.

 

[JoeB131]

Okay, here's why I think Harris will win.

1) Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm - 79% compared to 67% for Republicans.
2) Demcorats have a superior ground game. They've organize hundreds of field offices and tens of thousands of workers while Trump outsourced to Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk.
3) Harris has a higher favorability rating than Trump.
4) Trump's Nazi MSG Rally has alienated Hispanics and blacks and Muslims, key constituencies needed to win the rust belt.
5) Harris is easily leading in the popular vote. She is leading in MI and WI. This race - unfortunately, will come down to PA. And right now, she's leading in PA.
6) Trump has spent the last few weeks appealing to his base, instead of trying to win the middle. This will work against him
7) The Early voting numbers show that women are outvoting men by 55%- 45% or more. Women are upset about Dobbs, Trump's general misogyny, and the chance to finally put a woman in the White House is alluring.

Now, I know that you can't help yourself and you will come with all sorts of excuses why Trump didn't say that, or he didn't mean that, or others have said worse, or whatever excuses you guys have come up with for the last 9 years to rationalize supporting a person even you know is an awful human being.

But at the end of the day, America is better than Donald Trump.

 

[candycorn]

Okay, here's why I think Harris will win.

1) Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm - 79% compared to 67% for Republicans.
2) Demcorats have a superior ground game. They've organize hundreds of field offices and tens of thousands of workers while Trump outsourced to Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk.
3) Harris has a higher favorability rating than Trump.
4) Trump's Nazi MSG Rally has alienated Hispanics and blacks and Muslims, key constituencies needed to win the rust belt.
5) Harris is easily leading in the popular vote. She is leading in MI and WI. This race - unfortunately, will come down to PA. And right now, she's leading in PA.
6) Trump has spent the last few weeks appealing to his base, instead of trying to win the middle. This will work against him
7) The Early voting numbers show that women are outvoting men by 55%- 45% or more. Women are upset about Dobbs, Trump's general misogyny, and the chance to finally put a woman in the White House is alluring.

Now, I know that you can't help yourself and you will come with all sorts of excuses why Trump didn't say that, or he didn't mean that, or others have said worse, or whatever excuses you guys have come up with for the last 9 years to rationalize supporting a person even you know is an awful human being.

But at the end of the day, America is better than Donald Trump.

I hope you’re correct.

 

[shockedcanadian]

The real issue that Dems have to be very worried about is

1) early voting where the GOP have broken all of their own records while Dems have decreased significantly.

2) The polls are still vastly under representing Trump supporters who hang up the phone and/or don't respond to requests.

3) In 30 of 31 states in voter registration the move has been a shift to Republicans. This may be the most telling statistic of all.


I suspect Harris will win but Trump is the favourite without question and it would require an upset to beat him.

 

[JoeB131]

I hope you’re correct.

Me too.

I remember a line from the series, "I, Claudius", when discussing the madness of Caligula.

Claudius: "Caligula is sick to his head."
Antonia: "No, Rome is sick to her heart. Caligula is just the rash it's broken out into."

In a saner time, a guy like Trump, if he managed to get the nomination, would have been buried in the general election. He is simply that flawed of a human being.

America is sick to her heart that they've allowed this man to dominate our politics.

 

[Missourian]

 

[kyzr]

Okay, here's why I think Harris will win.

1) Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm - 79% compared to 67% for Republicans.
2) Democrats have a superior ground game. They've organize hundreds of field offices and tens of thousands of workers while Trump outsourced to Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk.
3) Harris has a higher favor-ability rating than Trump.
4) Trump's Nazi MSG Rally has alienated Hispanics and blacks and Muslims, key constituencies needed to win the rust belt.
5) Harris is easily leading in the popular vote. She is leading in MI and WI. This race - unfortunately, will come down to PA. And right now, she's leading in PA.
6) Trump has spent the last few weeks appealing to his base, instead of trying to win the middle. This will work against him
7) The Early voting numbers show that women are outvoting men by 55%- 45% or more. Women are upset about Dobbs, Trump's general misogyny, and the chance to finally put a woman in the White House is alluring.

Now, I know that you can't help yourself and you will come with all sorts of excuses why Trump didn't say that, or he didn't mean that, or others have said worse, or whatever excuses you guys have come up with for the last 9 years to rationalize supporting a person even you know is an awful human being.

But at the end of the day, America is better than Donald Trump.

My favorite shirt at the polling place was "I voted for the FELON"

Democrats generally have a very loyal party, they vote democrat no matter what.

Fortunately the middle third of voters, squishy Rs & Ds plus the Independents generally decide elections.

2024 has Biden at a dismal 41% approval, and grocery prices are making many voters "change voters".

 

[ZestolPastilevsky]

Jeb! surge outta nowhere to snag all 538 electors. Take this prediction to the bank.

 

[kyzr]

Me too. I remember a line from the series, "I, Claudius", when discussing the madness of Caligula.
Claudius: "Caligula is sick to his head."
Antonia: "No, Rome is sick to her heart. Caligula is just the rash it's broken out into."

In a saner time, a guy like Trump, if he managed to get the nomination, would have been buried in the general election. He is simply that flawed of a human being. America is sick to her heart that they've allowed this man to dominate our politics.

1. Biden's open borders is a National Security disaster.
He let in 166.000 Chinese nationals and 125,000 Russian nationals.
He also let in about 450,000 criminals and hundreds of terrorists, including ISIS

2. If Trump wins this is the saner time. All of the lies and Lawfare democrats threw at Trump backfired. I hope Trump and Elon Musk and the rest of his admin put the US back on the right-track, including firing those 80,000 new IRS agents "willing to KILL'.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

My favorite shirt at the polling place was "I voted for the FELON"

Democrats generally have a very loyal party, they vote democrat no matter what.

Fortunately the middle third of voters, squishy Rs & Ds plus the Independents generally decide elections.

2024 has Biden at a dismal 41% approval, and grocery prices are making many voters "change voters".

2024 has women terrified of Trump.

 

[Independent thinker]

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

The polls say its a 50-50 election (see above sticky threads for links)

My personal prediction is Trump because of the current 75% wrong track, because of Biden's dismal 41% approval, and because of the unaffordable price of groceries for US citizens, while illegals get free food and housing...explain/justify your prediction.

I wouldn't recommend anyone place any bets.

 

[para bellum]

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

The polls say its a 50-50 election (see above sticky threads for links)

My personal prediction is Trump because of the current 75% wrong track, because of Biden's dismal 41% approval, and because of the unaffordable price of groceries for US citizens, while illegals get free food and housing...explain/justify your prediction.

Trump for the reasons you laid out.

The only group that thinks they are better off under Biden is the democrats.

On Election Eve, Majority Of Voters Deeply Dissatisfied With Biden-Harris Years: TIPP Tracking Poll

Among all major voting blocs, only Democrats think the U.S. is headed in the right direction

tippinsights.com

 

[JoeB131]

My favorite shirt at the polling place was "I voted for the FELON"

Democrats generally have a very loyal party, they vote democrat no matter what.

Fortunately the middle third of voters, squishy Rs & Ds plus the Independents generally decide elections.

2024 has Biden at a dismal 41%

Trump's rating is just as bad.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

My prediction is a Trump victory with the Dems delaying the final vote count for days trying to manufacture enough votes for the win, but the margin will be excessive in a few swing states to make that impossible.

 

[Freedomisneverfree]

I can't believe ANYONE would vote for that Kamala useless whore.

 

[kyzr]

I wouldn't recommend anyone place any bets.

True. No telling if the women voters believe the democrat lies.
1. Trump will ban abortions. (Lie)
2. Trump is a fascist. (Lie)
3. Democracy will end if Trump wins. (Lie)
4. Trump will cut Social Security. (Lie)

 

[kyzr]

Trump's rating is just as bad.

Actually, surprisingly, not, its better than Kamala's. Apparently "time heals all wounds". ( or democrat lies fade)
Kamala was in the 30s to Trump's 43.5%. If you look closely, her favorability is heading back down after blipping up.

 

[John Edgar Slow Horses]

My prediction is a Trump victory with the Dems delaying the final vote count for days trying to manufacture enough votes for the win, but the margin will be excessive in a few swing states to make that impossible.

Every MAGA accusation is a confession. However, if Kamala sweeps today, I am sure the Admiral will accept the results immediately.