mikegriffith1
Mike Griffith
The exit polling reveals three crucial factors in Trump's win, factors that sensible Democrats would be wise to ponder:
1. First and most important, Republican turnout exceeded Democrat turnout by 13%. Republicans accounted for 35% of voters. Democrats accounted for 31% of voters, a difference of 4 percentage points or 13%. In contrast, in 2020, Democrat turnout topped GOP turnout 37% to 36%.
IOW, a whole lotta Democrats stayed home this time around. When your party's share of the turnout drops by a whopping 6 percentage points from the previous election, or by 19.5%, you know you had serious problems in your own ranks.
2. Trump's share of the Independent vote was 12.2% larger than it was in 2020. In 2020, Trump won 41% of the Independent vote. This time around he won 46%. This was especially important because Independents accounted for 34% of the vote, whereas in 2020 they accounted for 26% of the vote, an increase of 8 percentage points or 31%--a sizable shift.
3. Harris's share of the Independent vote was 10.2% lower than Biden's share in 2020. Biden won 54% of the Independent vote in 2020. Harris got 49% of the Independent vote. Again, this was big because the Independents accounted for 31% more of the total turnout this time around.
So, Democrats, perhaps you should ask yourselves these questions: Why did so many of your fellow Democrats stay home this time? Why did Harris not even come close to matching Biden's performance among Independent voters? Why did Trump improve his share of the Independent vote by 12.2%?
Exit polling data:
2024: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
2020: National Results 2020 President exit polls.
1. First and most important, Republican turnout exceeded Democrat turnout by 13%. Republicans accounted for 35% of voters. Democrats accounted for 31% of voters, a difference of 4 percentage points or 13%. In contrast, in 2020, Democrat turnout topped GOP turnout 37% to 36%.
IOW, a whole lotta Democrats stayed home this time around. When your party's share of the turnout drops by a whopping 6 percentage points from the previous election, or by 19.5%, you know you had serious problems in your own ranks.
2. Trump's share of the Independent vote was 12.2% larger than it was in 2020. In 2020, Trump won 41% of the Independent vote. This time around he won 46%. This was especially important because Independents accounted for 34% of the vote, whereas in 2020 they accounted for 26% of the vote, an increase of 8 percentage points or 31%--a sizable shift.
3. Harris's share of the Independent vote was 10.2% lower than Biden's share in 2020. Biden won 54% of the Independent vote in 2020. Harris got 49% of the Independent vote. Again, this was big because the Independents accounted for 31% more of the total turnout this time around.
So, Democrats, perhaps you should ask yourselves these questions: Why did so many of your fellow Democrats stay home this time? Why did Harris not even come close to matching Biden's performance among Independent voters? Why did Trump improve his share of the Independent vote by 12.2%?
Exit polling data:
2024: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0
2020: National Results 2020 President exit polls.