A long read, but very informative

[freyasman]

This was written in 2005 I believe, about the experiences and insights of a young man who lived in Buenos Aires when the country of Argentina's entire economy collapsed.
With the Great Depression 2.0 on us, I thought I'd post it here for everyone.

Thoughts on Urban Survival (2005)

"Thoughts on Urban Survival" is a long essay I wrote a few years ago. While long, this is not my book, “The Modern Survival Manual: Survi...

ferfal.blogspot.com

 

[Shawnee_b]

This was written in 2005 I believe, about the experiences and insights of a young man who lived in Buenos Aires when the country of Argentina's entire economy collapsed.
With the Great Depression 2.0 on us, I thought I'd post it here for everyone.

Thoughts on Urban Survival (2005)

"Thoughts on Urban Survival" is a long essay I wrote a few years ago. While long, this is not my book, “The Modern Survival Manual: Survi...

ferfal.blogspot.com

Interesting, thanks! Like the style, good writing.

 

[freyasman]

This was written in 2005 I believe, about the experiences and insights of a young man who lived in Buenos Aires when the country of Argentina's entire economy collapsed.
With the Great Depression 2.0 on us, I thought I'd post it here for everyone.

Thoughts on Urban Survival (2005)

"Thoughts on Urban Survival" is a long essay I wrote a few years ago. While long, this is not my book, “The Modern Survival Manual: Survi...

ferfal.blogspot.com

Interesting, thanks! Like the style, good writing.

I thought it was relevant, seeing as how our economy is going to shit the bed any day now.

 

[Gdjjr]

I'll keep it on my list.

 

[freyasman]

I'll keep it on my list.

A lot of "preppers" have either no idea or unrealistic ideas of how things happen when shit goes off the rails, and many are basically doing retail therapy by buying gear and supplies, rather than actually preparing themselves and their families.
A guy like FerFal, who has actually been through the economic collapse of what used to be a first world country, presents a valuable perspective on what, and how, things actually happen.
Another good guy to read is Selco Begovic, The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival: The Brutal Truth About Violence, Death, & Mayhem You Must Know to Survive: Begovic, Selco, Luther, Daisy: 9781792159220: Amazon.com: Books
He lived in Sarjevo during the siege.

In 1984 Sarajevo hosted the Olympic games, by 1994, it was a dystopian nightmare...... shit happens. I never understood why some people don't accept that it could happen to them, and learn from the folks who have been through it.

 

[Gdjjr]

I never understood why some people don't accept that it could happen to them, and learn from the folks who have been through it.

I don't understand why people in the US believe the US is immune to what others face routinely because of corrupt "leaders"- add to that why do people in the US believe servants are leaders, which exacerbates corruption- I have some ideas but when presented are ridiculed. But, I stand my ground, stand by my beliefs, gained from observation and results seen. Big Picture assessment proves my observations correct.

As for your statement, learning on the fly (on the job training) is a good teacher, probably the best-
Thankfully, some learn faster than others and become True "leaders"- "True" leadership is best defined as; benefiting the follower not enriching the leader -
back to and continuing, the learning from others; nothing worth having is ever easy. Learning from others is easy, comparatively speaking. Making your own mistakes is sometimes not so easy- like I was told when I was a kid about what does that word mean; look it up, you're less likely to forget it that way.
All one can do is all one can do and it is enough. I satisfy myself in that regard by doing my dead level best to leave my space a little better than I found it, determined by me, not a member of the collective of a society, or a "leader".

If you, as a person, feel the calling to help inform others about the difficulties that could happen in a real crisis situation- stand your ground- the Greater Good is accomplished through Individual effort- the 'others' involved (the students you hope to teach, members of society, etc.) are but a supporting cast.

 

[freyasman]

I never understood why some people don't accept that it could happen to them, and learn from the folks who have been through it.

I don't understand why people in the US believe the US is immune to what others face routinely because of corrupt "leaders"- add to that why do people in the US believe servants are leaders, which exacerbates corruption- I have some ideas but when presented are ridiculed. But, I stand my ground, stand by my beliefs, gained from observation and results seen. Big Picture assessment proves my observations correct.

As for your statement, learning on the fly (on the job training) is a good teacher, probably the best-
Thankfully, some learn faster than others and become True "leaders"- "True" leadership is best defined as; benefiting the follower not enriching the leader -
back to and continuing, the learning from others; nothing worth having is ever easy. Learning from others is easy, comparatively speaking. Making your own mistakes is sometimes not so easy- like I was told when I was a kid about what does that word mean; look it up, you're less likely to forget it that way.
All one can do is all one can do and it is enough. I satisfy myself in that regard by doing my dead level best to leave my space a little better than I found it, determined by me, not a member of the collective of a society, or a "leader".

If you, as a person, feel the calling to help inform others about the difficulties that could happen in a real crisis situation- stand your ground- the Greater Good is accomplished through Individual effort- the 'others' involved (the students you hope to teach, members of society, etc.) are but a supporting cast.

I learned far too much of what I know the hard way.


It hurt.

 

[freyasman]

The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

Or, “Who Needs an AR-15 Anyway?”

medium.com

From the link;
"the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home flooding during your mortgage.

It’s noticeably bigger.

Following the same procedure, we can see that even over an 18-year span we have a 10% chance of violent revolution, which is an interesting thought experiment to entertain before you have kids. It’s also important to note that a violent nation-state transition doesn’t just affect people who live in a floodplain. It affects everyone stuck in the middle. Especially the poor and defenseless.

But You’re Cheating
Am I? Two instances in 340 years is not a great data pool to work with, I will grant, but if you take a grab sample of other countries around the world you’ll see this could be much worse. Since our 1678 benchmark, Russia has had a two world wars, a civil war, a revolution, and at least half a dozen uprisings, depending on how you want to count them. Depending on when you start the clock, France had a 30-year war, a seven-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, that Napoleon thing, and a couple of world wars tacked on the end. China, North Korea, Vietnam, and basically most of the Pacific Rim has had some flavor of violent revolution in the last 100 years, sometimes more than one. With Africa, it’s hard to even conceive where to start and end the data points. Most Central and South American countries have had significant qualifying events in the time span. And honestly, if we were to widen our analysis to not only include nationwide violent civil wars, but also instances of slavery, internment, and taking of native lands, our own numbers go way up.

Or we could look at a modern snapshot. Counting places like the Vatican, we have 195 countries on the planet today. Somalia is basically in perpetual war, Syria is a hot mess with no signs of mitigation any time soon, Iraq is sketchy, Afghanistan has been in some flavor of civil war or occupation my entire life outside the salad days of the Taliban, and Libya is in such deep throes of anarchy that they’ve reinvented the African slave trade. Venezuela. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be a qualifying event depending on how you define it. And again, Africa is … hard to even conceive of where to start. Spitballing, perhaps 3% of the nations in the modern world are in some version of violent revolt against the ruling government, some worse than others. There’s at least some case to be made that our 0.5% annual chance estimate may be low, if we’re looking at comps.

Or we could look at a broader historical brush. Since the fall of Constantinople in 1453, there have been 465 sovereign nations which no longer exist, and that doesn’t even count colonies, secessionist states, or annexed countries. Even if we presume that half of these nation-state transitions were peaceful, which is probably a vast over-estimation, that’s still an average of one violent state transition every 2.43 years.

If we look at raw dialectic alone, we reach dismal conclusions. “Do you think the United States will exist forever and until the end of time?” Clearly any reasonable answer must be “no.” So at that point, we’re not talking “if,” but “when.” If you don’t believe my presumed probability, cook up your own, based on whatever givens and data pool you’d like, and plug it in. The equations are right up there. Steelman my argument in whatever way you like, and the answer will still probably scare you."

 

[Gdjjr]

Good points! Personally, I look at the Big Picture (start to present that I can see) adding together all the Snapshots of time and draw a conclusion. Empires fall. No ifs ands or buts about it. It isn't a matter of "if", but when.
That validates, for me, my preparations for helping ensure "I" will survive- "I" being the Indvidual, not the collective as they are but a supporting cast- Individual effort creates the Greater Good, naturally- it cannot be legislated, nor mandated- my effort is sowing the seeds of Liberty- seeds bear fruit. "I", not the collective, have determined the course I take, which is; leave my space a little better than I found it-