Recent content by JoshuaZ

  1. J

    Iowa High Information Democrat Voters Can't Name Anything Hillary Accomplished As Sec Of State

    So, Hillary is still in, and O'Malley is out. Has this resolved itself, and what is the most convenient way for you to pay up? (I can if you want send you my Paypal details.)
  2. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    Many people here, such as yourself, are far more interested in apparently insulting other people than they are in actually listening to most serious arguments, or barring that in presuming that people they disagree with must have some sort of apparent character flaws. This is less than...
  3. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    Mostly wrong, although "YOUNG left-winger" may be true depending on what you mean by young an left wing. Is 30s YOUNG for your purpose, and what do you mean by left-wing? I am primarily interested in making bets with people because it is a useful way of trying to understand how much they...
  4. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    Same question to you then: Suppose then someone offered to make a bet with you where you get say $15 if the Republicans win the Presidency in 2016 and you pay $25 if they don't, would you take it?
  5. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    People make estimates on things they don't have control over all the time. I'm specifically interested in using this to quantify your apparent high confidence that the Democrats will lose the Presidency. In the case of the House, I'd be not inclined to make any bet myself because I assign a very...
  6. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    Interesting. Suppose then someone offered to make a bet with you where you get say $15 if the Republicans win the Presidency in 2016 and you pay $25 if they don't, would you take it?
  7. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    Interesting. Could you then estimate how likely you think the Republicans are to win this next Presidential election?
  8. J

    Presidential Polls....Clinton getting walloped in Colorado

    That seems like you estimate a very high probability that the next President will not be a Democrat. How high a chance do you estimate?
  9. J

    Democrats are going to hand the GOP a landslide victory in the next elections if

    What probability do you estimate that the Republicans will win the election with at least say 53% of the popular vote and at least 370 electoral votes?
  10. J

    Jeb bush -

    Interesting. So that suggests you don't actually assign that high a probability to your prediction right now.
  11. J

    The Mountain the Democrats Must Climb

    Interesting. I'm curious. Suppose someone then offered you a bet where you get $15 if she isn't elected and paid $25 if she is, would you take it?
  12. J

    Jeb bush -

    I'm curious, if someone offered you a bet where you get $20 if the final ticket is Trump/Carson or Carson/Trump and you pay $20 if it isn't, would you take it?
  13. J

    Trump Support Highest Among American Workers since FDR - 60%+

    I'm curious, if I offered to make you a bet for $20 on whether the election will be Trump v. Hillary, would you take it?
  14. J

    Trump Support Highest Among American Workers since FDR - 60%+

    Being a US senator and a US Sec State seems to be relevant qualifications, but maybe that's just me. To make sure I understand, you think she is very likely to win the nomnination then and your earlier comment was sarcastic.
  15. J

    Trump Support Highest Among American Workers since FDR - 60%+

    That sounds like you estimate a very low chance that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. Can you estimate that probability?
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