Why the Polls may be Wrong

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by jwoodie, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. jwoodie
    Offline

    jwoodie Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2012
    Messages:
    8,767
    Thanks Received:
    1,287
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +3,913
    General distrust of the media, combined with concern about being labeled a racist or other forms of retribution may have caused a significant number of voters to hide their intention to vote for Romney by giving pollsters false or misleading information. We will see tonight.
     
  2. SniperFire
    Offline

    SniperFire Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2012
    Messages:
    13,627
    Thanks Received:
    1,219
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Inside Your Head
    Ratings:
    +1,223
    It's the Bradley Effect.

    White people being too nice to tell a pollster they won't vote again for the failed black guy.
     
  3. Some Guy
    Offline

    Some Guy Deregulated User

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,512
    Thanks Received:
    249
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +380
    Never really understood that. I'm white and would have no problem telling people i'm not voting for Obama because i disagree with pretty much all his ideas.
     
  4. SniperFire
    Offline

    SniperFire Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2012
    Messages:
    13,627
    Thanks Received:
    1,219
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Inside Your Head
    Ratings:
    +1,223
    It's a white guilt thing.
     
  5. Franticfrank
    Offline

    Franticfrank Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2012
    Messages:
    250
    Thanks Received:
    23
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Ratings:
    +23
    I don't really think people would lie so much. I guess on some level they have a deal of pride when it comes to their chosen candidate. You can only trust statistics and polls on the election so much - it isn't over until its over.
     
  6. Some Guy
    Offline

    Some Guy Deregulated User

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,512
    Thanks Received:
    249
    Trophy Points:
    130
    Ratings:
    +380
    I would agree that a lot of white people probably let race play a big part in their vote last time. Combine Obama's masterful campaign with his almost complete lack of a record which meant he could be anything you wanted him to be, it's a nice feel-good story to say "i helped elect the first black president."

    Now, we've had a black president and he has a record. I highly doubt that many whites who voted for Obama last time, at least partly based on his race, will do so again.
     
  7. decker
    Offline

    decker Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2012
    Messages:
    2,337
    Thanks Received:
    79
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Ratings:
    +79
    well this man former bush gop man Ari Fleischer in flordia seems confident.

    Ari Fleischer @AriFleischer Verified account
     
  8. healthmyths
    Offline

    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2011
    Messages:
    15,254
    Thanks Received:
    2,045
    Trophy Points:
    245
    Ratings:
    +3,858
    Well I've written about this several times coming from my former Iowan background I KNOW some if not many IOWANS put Obama in the primary BECAUSE in Iowa you have to stand in the caucus for the candidate.
    Well with ALL the glare of MSM during 2008 Iowa primary Iowans NOT wanting to fit the supposed stereotype of Iowans as hicks.. MANY Iowans stood up for Obama!
    They wanted to show EVEN with less then 3% black population.. Iowans are NOT racists!
    So these Iowans standing for Obama showed MSM they weren't hicks. There were sophisticated enough to stand for a Black man!

    AND so as a former Iowan I know these Iowans were more concerned about PERCEPTION then the reality Obama WAS NEVER qualified!
    But today's election in the quiet of voting booth I agree!
    In 2008 The total voting by whites were 79% of which 44% voted for Obama!
    Today that number will be the same i.e. 79% whites voting but 38% or less vote for Obama!

    Blacks in 2008 constituted 15 million and 91% of blacks voted for Obama... today polls show it will be about 87% for Obama
    Hispanics the same in 2012 as 2008 67% of 9 million for Obama..
    SO that being the case.. 6% less Obama means a loss !
     
  9. VaYank5150
    Offline

    VaYank5150 Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2009
    Messages:
    11,779
    Thanks Received:
    1,047
    Trophy Points:
    138
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    Dragons COULD fly out of my ass tonight too, but that is just as highly unlikely to happen....
     

Share This Page