When The Media Covers the People Are Informed

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Annie, Feb 6, 2010.

  1. Annie
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    Annie Diamond Member

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    People can make informed decisions. European papers have not only covered Climategate, they've been investigating and reporting. Here's what happens when the people are given information:

    BBC News - Climate scepticism 'on the rise', BBC poll shows

    Seems to be happening in China now also, (BTW, her previous pro-global warming writings are linked):

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/climat...g-is-on-the-wall-and-it’s-in-chinese/?print=1

     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    There has been a serious scientific review of the prediction in the IPCC report. It is called the Copenhagen Diagnosis.

    The Copenhagen Diagnosis

    The most significant recent climate change findings are:

    Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

    Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

    Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

    Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of summertime sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% less than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

    Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from
    melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.
    Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

    Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2010
  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Hmmm....

    http://na.unep.net/publications/Himalayas.pdf

    The IPCC cites the World Wildlife Fund (WWF 2005) as its
    source. The WWF report states that “glaciers in the Himalayas
    are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if
    the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing
    by the year 2035 is very high”. The report makes no mention
    of the 500 000 and 100 000 km2 areas that appear in the
    IPPC statement. The WWF credits the 2035 prediction to a
    1999 report by the Working Group on Himalayan Glaciology
    (WGHG) of the International Commission for Snow and
    Ice (ICSI).
    The ICSI stated that “Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding
    faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate
    continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035
    is very high” (Down to Earth 1999). In the following paragraph,
    the same article went on to say “The glacier will be decaying
    at rapid, catastrophic rates. Its total area will shrink from the
    present 500 0001 to 100 000 km2 by the year 2035.” There was
    no reference to the Himalaya Mountains in this particular
    paragraph although, as shown above, they were mentioned
    in the previous one. The ICSI credits a United Nations
    Educational, Scientifi c and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
    report edited by V.M. Kotlyakov (1996) as its source.
    In that 1996 report, Kotlyakov wrote “The degradation of
    the extrapolar glaciation of the Earth will be apparent in rising
    ocean levels already by the year 2050, and there will be a drastic
    rise of the ocean thereafter caused by the deglaciation-derived
    runoff . This period will last from 200 to 300 years. The extrapolar
    glaciation of the Earth will be decaying at rapid, catastrophic
    rates—its total area will shrink from 500,000 to 100,000 km2
    by the year 2350. Glaciers will survive only in the mountains of
    inner Alaska, on some Arctic archipelagos, within Patagonian
    ice sheets, in the Karakoram Mountains, in the Himalayas, in
    some regions of Tibet and on the highest mountain peaks in the
    temperature latitudes”. In his statement, both the 500 000 and
    100 000 km2 areas applied to mountain glaciers world-wide,
    not just the Himalayas, and the prediction was for the year
    2350, not 2035.
     

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