I don't think that many thought that Iran would change, especially with the Ayatollahs in charge regardless of an election.
PLUS ÇA CHANGE
West Realizes: No Moderation Coming in Iran
It’s starting to sink in to the conventional wisdom that there won’t be an Iranian Thermidor after February’s elections. See for instance theEconomist‘s takeaway on the new Iranian situation after the elections—more moderates in Parliament, but expect continuing hard line foreign policy:
Nor should the West count on a more pliant partner in the Middle East. At the moment, Iran is standing tall in the region. Its support for Bashar al-Assad’s homicidal regime in Syria has been reinforced by Russian bombers. It is the dominant force in Iraq, its mostly Shia neighbour. And it is giving its old Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia, a bloody nose in Yemen.
Having asked them to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Khamenei will need to placate Iran’s hardliners in other ways. Funding for the Revolutionary Guards, including its Quds Force, which operates in several countries, is likely to go up, not down. Iran’s support for Hizbullah, its battle-hardened proxy in Syria and on Israel’s borders, will probably grow. Free from sanctions, Iran is likely to remain prickly, no matter how moderate its parliament appears.
Continue reading at:
West Realizes: No Moderation Coming in Iran?
PLUS ÇA CHANGE
West Realizes: No Moderation Coming in Iran
It’s starting to sink in to the conventional wisdom that there won’t be an Iranian Thermidor after February’s elections. See for instance theEconomist‘s takeaway on the new Iranian situation after the elections—more moderates in Parliament, but expect continuing hard line foreign policy:
Nor should the West count on a more pliant partner in the Middle East. At the moment, Iran is standing tall in the region. Its support for Bashar al-Assad’s homicidal regime in Syria has been reinforced by Russian bombers. It is the dominant force in Iraq, its mostly Shia neighbour. And it is giving its old Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia, a bloody nose in Yemen.
Having asked them to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme, Mr Khamenei will need to placate Iran’s hardliners in other ways. Funding for the Revolutionary Guards, including its Quds Force, which operates in several countries, is likely to go up, not down. Iran’s support for Hizbullah, its battle-hardened proxy in Syria and on Israel’s borders, will probably grow. Free from sanctions, Iran is likely to remain prickly, no matter how moderate its parliament appears.
Continue reading at:
West Realizes: No Moderation Coming in Iran?
