We're In a Recovery?

[longknife]

According to the Obama administration that is. However, check out this story:

U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they’re being created

By Christopher Ingraham, May 5 @ U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they?re being created

Not only that, but during the most recent three years of the study -- 2009, 2010 and 2011 -- businesses were collapsing faster than they were being formed, a first. Overall, new businesses creation (measured as the share of all businesses less than one year old) declined by about half from 1978 to 2011.

Not only this, but the surest sign of the Misery Index of our current economy is the amazing number of vacant store fronts one sees while driving around. Each one represents the loss of more jobs and more opportunities to get ahead.

 

[The Rabbi]

With GDP growth never having exceeded 4% in a recovery and now about flat this is the worst recovery in history. This is what happens when you interfere in the economy.

 

[waltky]

Global economy still strugglin' to recover...

Prospects still slim for major global economic pickup
Fri Dec 18, 2015 - The world economy may be set for another year like 2015, with modest growth in developed economies offsetting persistent weakness elsewhere but generating very little inflation and keeping interest rates low.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's long-awaited rise in rates from zero showed confidence in the world's largest economy, but rival China is still struggling for a foothold with rate cuts. Although some countries, such as Brazil, have mainly home-grown inflation troubles, the Fed's first post-crisis rate hike is an unlikely cure for what ails the rest of the world. With exchange rates dominating the policy debate in many countries, what happens to the dollar will matter a lot. "The key question is whether the U.S. economy is finally robust enough not only to sustain its own recovery but also to lift world trade and global growth enough to allow the external deflationary pressures weighing on U.S. inflation to wane," outlined HSBC economists Janet Henry and James Pomeroy.

Men work on a construction site for a luxury apartment complex in downtown Los Angeles, California​

Along with an abrupt downturn in the volume of global trade and a continuing fall in commodity prices, the dollar's rise this year has brought U.S. industrial growth to a near-standstill, keeping a lid on inflation pressures from abroad. The other extreme, according to HSBC, is that the United States, "via a strong U.S. dollar, will simply become the latest victim of the deflationary pass-the-parcel which has plagued the global economy for a decade, and find itself following all of the other developed market central banks which raised rates but soon found they had to reverse course." "The outcome, we believe, is likely to be somewhere in between."

Bollards help secure the entrance to the Federal Reserve in Washington​

A Reuters poll of 120 economists on Friday forecast the Fed would hike rates again in March, but probably won't move as quickly next year as policymakers have suggested. Other recent Reuters surveys of hundreds of analysts worldwide do not offer hope for a pickup in inflation, even in the United States where the central bank says it is reasonably confident this will happen. Even the most optimistic core inflation forecasts are not far above 2 percent. The polls point to global growth averaging only 3.4 percent next year with scant prospect of touching 4 percent given the slowdown in China and the gloom surrounding emerging markets.

A labourer works atop a construction site of a commercial building as residential complexes are pictured in the background, in Kunming, Yunnan province, China​

Nor is it easy to find analysts expecting broad weakness in the dollar, with the most aggressive views suggesting the euro could even fall below parity. China's renminbi, now a reserve currency, has fallen each day for most of the past two weeks, with many bracing for further devaluation by Chinese authorities still looking for ways to stimulate the debt-laden economy.

SOME HOPE EMERGING

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

With GDP growth never having exceeded 4% in a recovery and now about flat this is the worst recovery in history. This is what happens when you interfere in the economy.

Liberals are too stupid to understand capitalism so soviet interference is their only option.

 

[The Rabbi]

With GDP growth never having exceeded 4% in a recovery and now about flat this is the worst recovery in history. This is what happens when you interfere in the economy.

Liberals are too stupid to understand capitalism so soviet interference is their only option.

And the "recovery" is over. Everything points to recession in the next 9 months.

 

[Jomama]

Everything points to recession in the next 9 months.

For instance... what?

 

[Jomama]

OP, that's a very scary article and I don't doubt it based on what I have seen. As a country we need lots of people to take foolish entrepreneurial risks in order to spur our innovation along. But in a secular stagnation it's hard to prompt those entrepreneurs forward.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

OP, that's a very scary article and I don't doubt it based on what I have seen. As a country we need lots of people to take foolish entrepreneurial risks in order to spur our innovation along. But in a secular stagnation it's hard to prompt those entrepreneurs forward.

hard??? cut the corporate tax to $0 and the cap gains tax to $0 and you have $billion and billions more for those inclined to be innovative!! Gee the liberal got another one wrong. What a surprise. Ask yourself, do you want to be a liberal all your life?

 

[Jomama]

OP, that's a very scary article and I don't doubt it based on what I have seen. As a country we need lots of people to take foolish entrepreneurial risks in order to spur our innovation along. But in a secular stagnation it's hard to prompt those entrepreneurs forward.

hard??? cut the corporate tax to $0 and the cap gains tax to $0 and you have $billion and billions more for those inclined to be innovative!! Gee the liberal got another one wrong. What a surprise. Ask yourself, do you want to be a liberal all your life?

Oh Ed, I love it when you pretend to understand entrepreneurs. Let's roll play, I have a great idea for a new business, I go lenders but they all want a personal guarantee and the equity in my home to lend me the money to take that risk. And I need to quit my job to take that risk. Plus, I'm sitting in secular stagnation and worried about losing my house, sending my kids to college and retiring. But you (Mr. Never an Entrepreneur) think that a tax rate on earnings is going to make a difference. I likely won't pay any taxes for the first three years and have a 50/50 shot of bankruptcy - but you think I should be worried about taxes.

Ed, can you show me one single entrepreneur who ever made the leap or not based on tax rates?

DEAR, YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND ENTREPRENEURSHIP. And you never will until you are one.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Ed, can you show me one single entrepreneur who ever made the leap or not based on tax rates?
.

100% stupid and liberal as always. In VC we say the more "shots on goal" we take the greater the chances of success. When govt taxes away our profits we can afford to take fewer shots and goal to fund entrepreneures like Gates Jobs Bezos Brin etc. Sorry to rock your world.

 

[The Rabbi]

Everything points to recession in the next 9 months.

For instance... what?

Declining industrial production. Increasing layoffs. Collapse of the junk bond market. Bad loans in oil related companies.
For starters.

 

[Cecilie1200]

With GDP growth never having exceeded 4% in a recovery and now about flat this is the worst recovery in history. This is what happens when you interfere in the economy.

Apparently, we're "recovering" from being a prosperous, productive nation. Can't be allowing THAT shit to continue.

 

[Jomama]

Everything points to recession in the next 9 months.

For instance... what?

Declining industrial production. Increasing layoffs. Collapse of the junk bond market. Bad loans in oil related companies.
For starters.

Maybe. I'm a bear and have been wrong about pending collapse more than I've been right.

 

[The Rabbi]

Everything points to recession in the next 9 months.

For instance... what?

Declining industrial production. Increasing layoffs. Collapse of the junk bond market. Bad loans in oil related companies.
For starters.

Maybe. I'm a bear and have been wrong about pending collapse more than I've been right.

The market and the economy are not on the same track. The market is high only because of TINA.

 

[Jomama]

Ed, can you show me one single entrepreneur who ever made the leap or not based on tax rates?
.

100% stupid and liberal as always. In VC we say the more "shots on goal" we take the greater the chances of success. When govt taxes away our profits we can afford to take fewer shots and goal to fund entrepreneurs like Gates Jobs Bezos Brin etc. Sorry to rock your world.

Eddie,

1. You're not a VC so dont act like it.
2. Thank you for pointing out Gates, Jobs, Bezos and Brin. Not one of them contemplated tax rates when they started. And each one of them were funded by a vibrant VC pool, despite our tax rates over the 30 odd year duration of their startups.
3. The US has an oversupply of cash waiting in VC and PE funds - not the opposite. Despite our tax rates.
4. Yes, Ed, taxes deplete free cashflow for capitalists (duh) but that's a long-stretch argument and doesnt affect individual funds, just the future ones in a theoretical way. Investment is about real world choices not fantasy. An LP could invest in, say, Somalian funds with no taxes but cash on sidelines in America shows that remains a top investment destination.

 

[sealybobo]

According to the Obama administration that is. However, check out this story:

U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they’re being created

By Christopher Ingraham, May 5 @ U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they?re being created

Not only that, but during the most recent three years of the study -- 2009, 2010 and 2011 -- businesses were collapsing faster than they were being formed, a first. Overall, new businesses creation (measured as the share of all businesses less than one year old) declined by about half from 1978 to 2011.

Not only this, but the surest sign of the Misery Index of our current economy is the amazing number of vacant store fronts one sees while driving around. Each one represents the loss of more jobs and more opportunities to get ahead.

Non-farm employment fed another monthly drop in unemployment across Iowa in November, according to Iowa Workforce Development (IWD).

Iowa’s official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continued to drop in the month, falling to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in October, IWD reported Friday. The state’s jobless rate was 4.3 percent one year ago.


The U.S.'s official unemployment rate remained at 5 percent in November.


Thanks Obama.

 

[sealybobo]

Ed, can you show me one single entrepreneur who ever made the leap or not based on tax rates?
.

100% stupid and liberal as always. In VC we say the more "shots on goal" we take the greater the chances of success. When govt taxes away our profits we can afford to take fewer shots and goal to fund entrepreneures like Gates Jobs Bezos Brin etc. Sorry to rock your world.

U.S. unemployment rate hits 5.1%, lowest in 7 years

You Republican whiners need to take your own advice.

1. Go back to school
2. Start your own business
3. Move. Maybe you live in a shitty part of the country where there are no jobs. Plenty of jobs here in the big city.

 

[The Rabbi]

According to the Obama administration that is. However, check out this story:

U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they’re being created

By Christopher Ingraham, May 5 @ U.S. businesses are being destroyed faster than they?re being created

Not only that, but during the most recent three years of the study -- 2009, 2010 and 2011 -- businesses were collapsing faster than they were being formed, a first. Overall, new businesses creation (measured as the share of all businesses less than one year old) declined by about half from 1978 to 2011.

Not only this, but the surest sign of the Misery Index of our current economy is the amazing number of vacant store fronts one sees while driving around. Each one represents the loss of more jobs and more opportunities to get ahead.

Non-farm employment fed another monthly drop in unemployment across Iowa in November, according to Iowa Workforce Development (IWD).

Iowa’s official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continued to drop in the month, falling to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in October, IWD reported Friday. The state’s jobless rate was 4.3 percent one year ago.


The U.S.'s official unemployment rate remained at 5 percent in November.


Thanks Obama.

You understand unemployment is a lagging indicator, right? And that most of the drop in unemployment is people leaving the workforce.

 

[The Rabbi]

Ed, can you show me one single entrepreneur who ever made the leap or not based on tax rates?
.

100% stupid and liberal as always. In VC we say the more "shots on goal" we take the greater the chances of success. When govt taxes away our profits we can afford to take fewer shots and goal to fund entrepreneures like Gates Jobs Bezos Brin etc. Sorry to rock your world.

U.S. unemployment rate hits 5.1%, lowest in 7 years

You Republican whiners need to take your own advice.

1. Go back to school
2. Start your own business
3. Move. Maybe you live in a shitty part of the country where there are no jobs. Plenty of jobs here in the big city.

5.1% was among the highest rates occuring during Bush's presidency. If after nearly 8 years and trillions of dollars in programs this is the best Obama can manage, his presidency is a total failure.

 

[pinqy]

And that most of the drop in unemployment is people leaving the workforce.

It is? Doesn't look that way to me.

It looks to me like the labor force has been going up and the unemployment rate has been going down.