We may not know who won until...

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Dr.Traveler, Oct 29, 2012.

  1. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    Nov 17th at the earliest.

    I haven't seen this mentioned here yet, but provisional ballots in Ohio may not be counted until the 17th.

    That means that if the Ohio results are close enough, and if the EC is as close as everyone is saying, that there won't be a known winner in the Buckeye State until later in November, and by extension a winner in the Electoral College won't be known until later in November also.

    I'm going to say right now, I expect that this will end in lawyers. I don't see anyone right now with a big enough margin in the Electoral College that would stop that.
     
  2. Moonglow
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    Moonglow Diamond Member

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    just likethe 2000 election all over again?
     
  3. RoadVirus
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    RoadVirus <insert pithy title here>

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    Great...we have to deal with election coverage for an extra 10 days?
     
  4. hazlnut
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    hazlnut Gold Member

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    Mitt's not going to win NC, Nevada, or Wisconsin.

    So.... yep.
     
  5. Moonglow
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    Moonglow Diamond Member

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    Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn.~Rhett Butler
     
  6. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    I agree on Nevada or Wisconsin, but he's going to take NC. If Obama took NC, then the Ohio results likely won't matter.

    My prediction right now is a 275-263 split, with Obama getting NV, WI and Ohio, Romney getting VA, IA, and CO. I don't think anyone will be surprised by NC and IN going Red.

    If that's the case, then the election on Election night will first come down to Nevada (as at that point Obama must win it to be within striking distance of 270), then Ohio. And like the link argues, we won't know Ohio for a while.
     
  7. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    Almost certainly.

    I don't see it as being possible for Obama to win by a margin that would stop this scenario to play out. He'd need to win in the Electoral College without Ohio, and frankly, it's looking difficult. VA or FL could give him that margin, as could winning CO+IA+NH, but I don't see either happening.

    The way I see it, the only way we know for sure the winner on Election night is if Mitt takes WI, IA, and CO as well as VA and FL. That would give Mitt enough EC votes to win without Ohio. If Ohio is the margin, we all get to repeat the 2000 election. Joy.
     
  8. toomuchtime_
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    toomuchtime_ Gold Member

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    On the other hand, the polls in the swing states are so close that they may largely go to one side or the other and result in a large margin of victory.
     
  9. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    That would be the optimal result. You want a winner who doesn't actually need Ohio.

    The problem is, I don't see that winner being Obama unless Virginia starts to move back into his column. And Romney would have a hard time clearing the hurdle too as NV and WI, two states that Romney should have an advantage in, are states he just can not seem to lock down or even pull ahead in.
     

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