Wash Post: Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself

[The Paperboy]

Link here

 

[editec]

I do not have much confidence in any single poll. AT best it's a snapshot of a moment in time

But when we see essantially the same trend in poll after poll for week after week, I'm inclined to think we're getting a fairly good impression of reality.

 

[random3434]

I do not have much confidence in any single poll. AT best it's a snapshot of a moment in time

But when we see essantially the same trend in poll after poll for week after week, I'm inclined to think we're getting a fairly good impression of reality.

Some polls show Obama with a healthy lead even without an assumed surge in African American and young voters. Obama's seven-point lead in the Washington Post-ABC News poll is not premised on disproportionately higher turnout among those demographic groups. The poll's turnout model currently shows that 10 percent of likely voters are black, compared with the 11 percent who voted in 2004, according to the network exit poll. Voters younger than 30 make up 16 percent of the Post-ABC sample, little different from the 17 percent four years ago.

Post polling director Jon Cohen said the survey designers "carefully consider a range of likely voter scenarios and use our best judgment. Our polling throughout the campaign has been on target and, we believe, helpful to understanding what is really happening. I hope it stays that way."

He noted that to address "one potential pitfall," The Post and ABC conduct interviews with a random selection of those who have only cellular phone service alongside a traditional random sample of those with residential phone service. One recent criticism of current polling has been that it does not accurately capture the sentiments of those who primarily use cellphones

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So The Post and ABC conduct cell phone and land line polls, and Obama is ahead in those polls too.


What would newsboys life be like without polls? His entire purpose of being is posting "headlines" like:


"Obama only up by 7 Points because he paid the poll workers campaign money!"

"Obama ate a pancake for breakfast in the shape of the Star of David!"

"Obama played basketball with OJ Simpson and Jeffrey Dahmer in 1981!"

"Obama wore jeans at an outside rally, bought at Mens Warehouse of all places!"

"Obama stole his daughters Halloween candy and gave it to William Ayres!"