Very clever analysis of polls before 2000 election

Discussion in 'Congress' started by DavidS, Oct 14, 2008.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    FoxNews had on a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll that showed Al Gore with an 11 point lead over George W. Bush on October 4, 2000. They compared that to the current poll with Obama showing a 10 point lead over McCain and told their viewers not to trust the polls.

    Indeed Gallup did have a poll on October 4, 2000 that did show Gore to be in the lead by 11 points. However, what FauxNews ISN'T telling you is that on October 5, that lead plunged and Al Gore only had a 1 point lead. What happened? Gallup didn't include, in its 10/4 survey, people who watched the debate between Bush and Gore on 10/3. Bush handily defeated Gore in that debate and thus Gore's lead in the polls plunged.

    There have been two presidential debates so far, and one vice-presidential debate. Every time there's a debate, Obama's lead increases or stays the same. No matter what debate, when it's held, where it's held, how many people are watching it, team blue always comes out victorious in the polls.

    While I agree that you cannot look at one simple poll, you can look at the trend in polls over a period of time. The trend after that debate was in George Bush's favor and the 10/14 Gallup poll showed Bush ahead by 4 points with a 3% margin of error.

    The trend is your friend. If you look at the overall trend in the Gallup poll, Obama has consistently remained ahead of McCain. In 2000, Gore and Bush constantly switched who was winning and who was losing. In 2004, after the second debate, Bush showed a solid lead over Kerry and remained in the lead.

    Tomorrow night's debate is vital for the McCain campaign. John McCain is offering a new economic plan and he absolutely MUST make the case that his new economic plan will get us out this recession faster than Obama's will. John McCain can NOT mention pork barrell spending, Iraq, Ayres or Wright. People hate Iraq and don't care about the other two. John McCain has to look confident, decisive and get Obama to make a mistake. He cannot call Obama "that one," and cannot be dis-respectful. By Friday or Saturday, if McCain isn't in the lead in some polls, or isn't polling dead-even, the only way he can do anything for his campaign is by getting rid of Palin and putting Senator Hutchinson from Texas on his ticket.

    Again, don't look at one poll. Look at the trends in ALL of the polls.

    Fox also brought up something about Dewey and Truman from the 1950s. If Fox really needs to go back all the way to the 1950s to justify how the polls are incorrect, they're in trouble.
     
  2. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    Gore won in 2000, the SC mangled the recount, there were irregularities of epic proportions in florida (and elsewhere), and 2004 saw some of the same.

    I am not convinced that Bush ever won fairly, though I am convinced that about as many people supported him as his opponent, which is some small comfort.

    The polls do show Obama clearly ahead, with 21 days to go, he has a more robust and stable lead than either previous contender, but don't count out vote fraud from caging to electronic tampering just yet. After all, Diebold admits its machines drop votes in areas that trend democratic.
     
  3. bigdaddygtr
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    bigdaddygtr Senior Member

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    AND THE TRUTH SHALL SET YOU FREE!!!!!!!!!! :clap2::clap2::clap2: Great post
     
  4. bigdaddygtr
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    bigdaddygtr Senior Member

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    By the way, we've been down here in S Fl working hard to make sure the Jewish community knows about Barack's brother in law(Michelle's Bro) who is the most well-respected black rabbi in the nation so make sure you spread that word also so that the community doesn't start believing this crap about Obama being a Muslim and anti-Israel crap
     
  5. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    You can make a case for 2000, but Bush clearly won in 2004.
     
  6. Caligirl
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    Caligirl Oh yes it is too!

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    You didn't follow the ohio irregularities then.
     
  7. Truthmatters
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    Truthmatters BANNED

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    No he didnt.

    The Ohio election was a mess set up to make dem voters stand in line for hours in the rain to try and vote.
     
  8. Chris
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    Chris Gold Member

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    Ohio has a Democratic governor this time, and Obama has twice as much money as McCain.

    Plus, Milfy Mooseburger is a drag on the ticket.

    McCain is done.

    Of course the funny thing is, Obama can win without Florida or Ohio.
     
  9. xsited1
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    xsited1 Agent P

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  10. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Yesterday I wrote a very similar comment on another thread involving polls.

    Essentially we cannot trust any one poll, not even ones that are on the up and up, but we can trust many polls to give us an indication of the trend in thinking.

    That basically why I tend not to get involved in threads touting that one candidate or the other is in the lead.

    A single swallow does not a summer make, and all that, ya know?
     

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