U.S. 'Growth' Slows, GDP for Q-1 2012= 2.2%

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Trajan, Apr 27, 2012.

  1. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    this seems to be the trend - last year, year before.....*shrugs* We seem, that is seem to get some momentum, ( as anemic as that is considering the condition we are in) then.....a slow slide back to low end mediocrity, a slight burst come latter half of Q3 and Q4...then....slow glide back to the doldrums...




    Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of all the goods and services produced in an economy, grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.2% in the first quarter of 2012, the Commerce Department said Friday. It was the agency's first reading of growth for the quarter.

    The gain came in below expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast first-quarter GDP would increase at a 2.6% rate. In the final three months of 2011, the economy grew at a 3.0% rate.

    Commerce said the slowing expansion "primarily reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment," a category that includes spending on structures, computers and industrial equipment.

    A build up in inventories helped drive the expansion at the end of 2011, accounting for more than half of the overall growth for the fourth quarter. In the first three months of this year, increased inventories contributed only about a quarter of the total gain in GDP.

    Meanwhile, nonresidential fixed investment fell by 2.1% during the first quarter, compared to 5.2% gain in the prior period.

    Government spending declined in the first quarter, falling by 3.0%. That comes after a 4.2% drop in public expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2012.


    more at-
    U.S. GDP Growth Slows - WSJ.com
     
  2. DSGE
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    DSGE VIP Member

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    3% real growth is the long run trend for the US. Given that there's a trillion dollar output gap, we don't want to see anything near 3% growth, let alone less than 3%. I frequently heard people getting excited over the last quarter growth figures, but they were awful. If you have a trillion dollar output gap following a recession, you don't want to have trend growth. You need significantly above-trend growth for a period. We need 5 to 7% growth per year. Then, after the output gap is closed, it's acceptable to return to 3% trend growth. If RGDP growth is less than 5%, there is no reason for anybody to ever refer to growth as "picking up" or "strong" or any of that bullshit.

    And now the dismal 3% growth has fallen to 2.2%. I'm glad I don't live in the US, because you guys are fucked.
     
  3. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    no doubt about it. Bush left a shit sandwich, and obama doubled down. The next pres. term Romney or obama, will see another recession, period. Its cooked into the books.
     
  4. Jroc
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    Jroc יעקב כהן Supporting Member

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    That number will probably be revised down, that seems to be the trend these days. I'll have to disagree with you a bit, there may be a recession at first if Romney is elected, but it’ll be a short one. once Romney unleashes a little capitalism, and goes full bore with energy production also Obamacare will be gone, get rid of the whackos at EPA ect...If Obama wins count on a depression not a recession.
     
  5. Wiseacre
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    Wiseacre Retired USAF Chief Supporting Member

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    I think there's a fair chance we'll see a recession later this year, that could lead to a double dip next year, as you say regardless of who's president.
     
  6. Middleoftheroad
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    Middleoftheroad Active Member

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    Wait, what? That would mean government spending fell by about 7% in 6 months. I'm not saying I don't believe that, but... well actually that is what I'm saying.

    I'm not quite so sure. There are still definetly some weaknesses in the economy and I do see another summer slowdown yet again, I think after that most of the major outliers should be fixed or near fixed (well with the exception of Europe, I really don't know what some of the countries there are going to do).
     
  7. bugs
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    bugs Senior Member

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    ^this is only IF you believe "their" numbers.. just think where it would be if not for INFLATION!!!! -2.2% maybe... :cuckoo:
     
  8. bugs
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    bugs Senior Member

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    ^ OR the Depression gets Worse.. :eek:
     
  9. DSGE
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    DSGE VIP Member

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    It's real GDP dude; inflation adjusted. Nominal GDP grew 3.8%, same as last quarter.
     
  10. bugs
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    bugs Senior Member

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    ^how do you Know this? :confused:
     

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