Tuesday, June 3, 2014: big primary day coming up.

[Statistikhengst]

Re:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/election-forums/338137-2014-primary-calendar.html


Just a reminder:

8 states will have primaries tomorrow (see above graphic), June 3, 2014.


Now, I could be wrong, but it really looks like the GOP Senate Primary in Mississippi will be THE race to watch tomorrow. And polling is showing the race to be close.


Four polls of the race in the last two weeks:

Chism (D), 813 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Important Survey on Mississippi US Senate GOP Primary

Chris McDaniel (R-Tea) 46.4%
Thad Cochran (R-Inc) 44.3%
Chris Carey (R) 1.4%
undecided 7.9%

margin: McDaniel +2.1%


------------------------------------------------------------------------

Harper Polling (R), 599 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

http://harperpolling.com/docs/defau...ary/hp-14-05-ms-primary-toplines.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Thad Cochran (R-Inc) 45%
Chris McDaniel (R-Tea) 40%
not sure 15%

margin: Cochran +5%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


RRH (Red Racing Horses) polling (R), 374 A, MoE = +/-5.0

Red Racing Horses:: RRH MS-Sen Poll: Cochran Leads McDaniel 42-41

Thad Cochran (R-Inc) 42%
Chris McDaniel (R-Tea) 41%
Chris Carey (R) 6%
undecided 12%

margin: Cochran +1%

----------------------------------------------------------------------

The Polling Company, 505 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/PollingCompany_MS_051914.pdf


Chris McDaniel (R-Tea) 43%
Thad Cochran (R-Inc) 39%
Chris Carey (R) 3%
undecided 12%
refused 3&

margin: McDaniel +4%


So, of the four latest polls, two are for Cochran and two are for McDaniels.

Flip a coin.

Mississippi is a state that is not polled all that often. It is also a state that is notoriously late in getting voting returns reported. It has one of the more unfriendly SOS websites in the USA. So, with a race that is a apparently this close, we may be waiting a while for results. the winner of this could decide whether the GE in Mississippi would be competitive or not. Right now, the GE is strongly in favor of the GOP if Cochran wins the primary. If Tea-Party challenger McDaniels wins the primary, it could be considerably closer, forcing the RNC to sink money into a state it would like to think of as a "safe bench".


The California primaries are JUNGLE primaries, just to remind.


I will be posting results from all the primaries tomorrow night, as they come in.


Anyone who would like to contribute information about the other races is welcome to do so, of course.

 

[blastoff]

If we want to contribute, do we have to do so on both of the threads you started on the same topic?

 

[Statistikhengst]

If we want to contribute, do we have to do so on both of the threads you started on the same topic?

This thread was just a reminder of what was going to happen the next day.

Feel free to contribute on the other thread.