Three Curtains

[rstrats]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

 

[Mertex]

You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way?

I would probably stay with Curtain #!, because it has always been my experience that when I change lanes in traffic, to one I think is moving faster, all of a sudden it comes to a complete stop and the one I was on goes zooming by me. Also, when I change checkout lines at the grocery store, where I may be the 3rd in line to one that only has one person being checked out, it always happen that she's cashing a check and they have to get the manager, can't find him, and then the check doesn't go through, and by the time they check me out, I notice all the people that were behind me on the other line are already gone!

 

[Ropey]

The Monty Hall Problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Gambler's ruin - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Zoom-boing]

You've got a 50/50 shot either way.

 

[percysunshine]

Always switch. 2/3 probability. It's an old Bayes Theorem example. It would be a random 50/50 shot only if the host (Monte Hall) did not know where the car was and might accidentally open the wrong curtain the first time.

 

[rstrats]

Zoom-boing,

re: "You've got a 50/50 shot either way."


What would you do if after your pick of curtain #1, and before any curtain was opened, the host told you that you could switch to both curtains #2 AND #3?