The Banker
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
This big upmove is way overdone IMO. I think the markets are mis-pricing interest rate cuts.
They have priced in a 70% chance for a cut in July and a 60% chance for 3 cut this year??
If we have 3 cuts this year that would mean the economic data has turned bad and we will be headed for a recession.
The market will hit and sustain new highs if: They cut 1 time, the economic data improves, and the trade war gets resolved (which would probably mean China backing down to Trump, which I also don't think will happen)
Also CPI while not strong/high certainly isn't low and weak. We'll learn more tomorrow.
They have priced in a 70% chance for a cut in July and a 60% chance for 3 cut this year??
If we have 3 cuts this year that would mean the economic data has turned bad and we will be headed for a recession.
The market will hit and sustain new highs if: They cut 1 time, the economic data improves, and the trade war gets resolved (which would probably mean China backing down to Trump, which I also don't think will happen)
Also CPI while not strong/high certainly isn't low and weak. We'll learn more tomorrow.