This Up Move is over done

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by The Banker, Jun 11, 2019.

  1. The Banker
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    The Banker VIP Member

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    This big upmove is way overdone IMO. I think the markets are mis-pricing interest rate cuts.
    They have priced in a 70% chance for a cut in July and a 60% chance for 3 cut this year??

    If we have 3 cuts this year that would mean the economic data has turned bad and we will be headed for a recession.

    The market will hit and sustain new highs if: They cut 1 time, the economic data improves, and the trade war gets resolved (which would probably mean China backing down to Trump, which I also don't think will happen)

    Also CPI while not strong/high certainly isn't low and weak. We'll learn more tomorrow.
     
  2. ZZ PUPPS
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    ZZ PUPPS Platinum Member

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    GS is still forecasting no rate cut this year. The only thing holding this market up is corporate buybacks. Otherwise, equity cash flows have been negative.

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    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
  3. gipper
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    gipper Libertarian/Anarchist

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    So many so called experts have been proclaiming for years that this bull market is over and we are headed for another major recession or even depression, that one gets tired of hearing it. Do any of them have any credibility left?
     
  4. The Banker
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    The Banker VIP Member

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    I should clarify that by big upmove, I mean the rebound that has occurred in the past week.

    According to the economic data the absolute crash is still a year away, I just think the past week has been way overly optimistic with 6 gap up days? Too much. We still have some real headwinds to be 2% off all time highs.
     
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